Happy hump-day, friends and fellow traders.
Well, I don't know what the market was expecting in the way of interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve today, but what they got was less then thrilling to them. Stocks were inching higher headed into the 2:00 pm EST announcement, but they started to give up ground when Janet Yellen decided no change was necessary at this time. Inflation remains plenty tame, and there are some soft spots for the economy.
It's also pretty clear the Federal Reserve's voting members are collectively on the fence for the long run. Again though, that's nothing new. The only thing that really changed was a slight reel-in of future rate-hike plans.
We'll look at the news and corresponding charts in a second. Before we get to anything else, we want to show you a updated chart of Intelligent Content Enterprises (ICEIF).
If you're not familiar with ICEIF, I thought Bryan Murphy did a good job of explaining it today. He's also right when we notes companies like Google and Microsoft haven't done themselves any favors with the way that handle this oft-overlooked function of the web.
That's not the most pressing matter right now with Intelligent Content Enterprises though. Right now, the chart of ICEIF is the big story.
Take a look. Two weeks ago this thing was on fire. As of last week, it was taking a break. No big deal - most small caps ebb and flow like this. I just bring it up to suggest now may be an ideal time to get into ICEIF if you were waiting on a pullback to get in. There's some support already showing up around the 20-day moving average line (blue).
It's also worth noting the volume behind the recent lull.... or lack thereof. The selling (red) volume bars have been visibly smaller than the buying (green) bars for a few weeks now, so it's not like this recent weakness is a majority opinion. This is just some fairly typical profit-taking. Most of the recent buyers are sticking with it though. That means a lot.
Whatever the case, we've seen this before. Quite often, the rally is rekindled with little to no warning.
Other worthy comments posted at the site today are Bryan's look at the surprising growth of traditional Chinese medicine outside of China, and where Globalink Limited (GOBK) fits into the picture. And, Peter Graham taught us all something useful about a special FDA rule that allows biopharma developers to sidestep many of the usual R&D requirements of a new drug. As it turns out, the rule benefits one of the website's Featured Stocks.
Now, about the Fed's decision to leave the Fed Funds rate alone today...
I'm a firm believer in the notion that a picture is worth a thousand words. So, rather than trying to describe what the Fed's members are thinking, here's the dot plot. For the record, all the clusters are down about 0.25 percentage points from where they were the last time the chart was updated.
The dot plot/interest rate outlook is mostly based on this inflation outlook.... which also remains quite tame.
For what it's worth, the more detailed (quarter by quarter) outlook from Reuters for the Fed Funds rate jibes pretty well with the bigger-picture outlook from the Federal Reserve's voting members. That is, by late 2017 we should still only have three -- at the most -- rate hikes in the rear-view mirror.
If it were just the professionals or just the Fed's members calling for only tepid rate increases, I might not buy in. To see both groups pretty much agree about the future though -- and to hear nobody balk at the tepid inflation outlook -- we're inclined to trust the collective wisdom of pretty much all the experts here, and say don't look for the Fed to go nuts with interest rate increases. They'll be put in place sparingly. It's that cautious pace and corresponding rhetoric which should let the Fed push rates higher without up-ending stocks. In fact...
Actually, the market had been subtly pricing in the non-rate-hike for a while. Today's comments and decision from the Fed, however, accelerated that action. Yields touched on multi-week lows, and are still looking for lower lows. Bonds are already into new multi-month high territory. Although I suspect we'll see a short-term pushback for both, in the bigger picture, bonds and yields entered a whole new trading paradigm (level) thanks to last week's big moves.
Just as a reminder, much of this trend we've seen since 2014 is an unwinding of speculation that inflation would run wild on the heels of a cheap and easy credit, and a weak dollar. It never happened, partially because the greenback ended up soaring in value, but mostly because the situation for rampant inflation was never quite right.
Speaking of the U.S. dollar, it too was down today following the Fed's mostly-dovish thoughts. Makes sense. Interest rates and a country's currency tend to move in tandem. If interest rates are falling, so too should the dollar. This is all part of a bigger-picture breakdown for the dollar. Could get really ugly sooner than most might imagine.
In any case, with traders still not all that clear about what the future looks like in terms of interest rates and inflation, once again the default response from stocks was to do nothing.... to remain on the fence. That's fine, but it doesn't help those of you who are trade-hungry.
The trick? Rather than waiting on the stock market to do something, go to where the action is.
That's what John Monroe of the Elite Opportunity Pro almost did earlier in the week. And, judging from his comments, he still might.
Ever heard us say "plan the trade, and trade the plan?" It's one of John's favorite wisdom nuggets, even if it means not placing a trade because your trading criteria were never met. Well, here's what John passed along to Elite Opportunity Pro members on Monday:
"... if the hourly chart breaks down, and more importantly we get a convincing move and close below $134.73 by day's end, we could see stocks rally sharply and bonds start to sell off in fairly short order.
Although it doesn't necessarily mean stocks are going to make new highs, I think the potential divergence between the two could last for at least a few days. More importantly, it could serve as a potentially nice risk/reward entry into TBT, the primary bearish bond ETF tracking TLT. However, before you decide to enter into this trade, just make sure it starts to look like we're going to get a convincing close below $134.73 in TLT by day's end. The more convincing TLT reverses itself to the downside by day's end, the more context there will exist for entering into TBT.
If for some reason, however, TLT does not reverse itself, and more importantly breaks above Friday's high, the trade will be off. Conversely, in the event TLT does cooperate with a reversal as soon as today, you may also want to consider..."
The potential trade didn't end up meeting all the criteria on Tuesday, so the budding trade was negated before it ever went live. But, the very fact that John's talking about it speaks volumes. It very likely could come up again as a trading possibility, but with a whole new set of trading parameters.
Considering how good of a chance the stock market has of doing absolutely nothing for the next several weeks, I'd be looking for other trading opportunities. The EO Pro has them, and not just with the bond market. In fact, John dished out a new trading idea on oil today, making a point of moving to where the trade-worthy movement is.