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The Top Tech Pick for This Summer Is an Oldie, But a Goodie
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Well, no real surprises on Tuesday. We made a point of showing you how the market rolled over on Monday, unable to hold itself above the 20-day moving average line and slipping a little into the red. Today's pullback was just a continuation of that bearish reversal. It still doesn't change the fact that stocks are stuck in a range here, with no clear idea of when they'll rock their way out of the rut. The summer snooze begins. The nearby daily chart of the S&P 500 tells us all we need to know. Stocks started near the high for the day, and spent the better part of the session making their way lower. That move confirms that the 20-day moving average line (at 1646.4) is at least something of a ceiling. On the other hand, so what? There's still a major floor now around 1612, where the lower Bollinger band and the 50-day moving average line are about to converge. The S&P 500 rebounded - a little - the last time they were brushed earlier in the month, so it wouldn't be unreasonable to think it could happen again in the future. The bottom line is, the market's range-bound right now, and until it wiggles its way out of that range, there's not a lot of movement to worry about. I still say the market's due for a garden-variety correction, just because we haven't had a good one in a while. Aside from the weakening chart, the VIX is pushing upward again, and still has a ton of room to keep rising. But, the bulls have to be willing to yield to the bears in a bigger way than they have been lately in order for that to happen. Our marching orders: Do nothing, for now. The market's still looking for its bearings, and we have to wait until it finds them before we can do anything about it. The Technology Pick In yesterday's edition we told you the technology sector was poised to lead the market this summer. In fact, we extensively explained why we favored the tech arena for the next few months. It wasn't just an academic exercise though... we were laying the groundwork for today's trading idea. No need to beat around the bush - Xerox (XRX) is the technology name ready to outpace the market through the summer and into the fall. Surprised? We'd be the first to acknowledge it's not a high-octane trade, like some of the biotechs or cutting-edge technology names we've scored with before. In fact, I'm hesitant to even call it a 'trade' as it implies we're thinking very near-term with this idea. Like we mentioned in Monday's newsletter, this kind of sector-driven trade is the kind of thing you should plan on sticking with for weeks, and if that holding period happened to bleed into months, then so be it. Now, I know what you're thinking... who buys photocopiers anymore? Truth be told, not many people. Then again, Xerox has quality been transforming itself into anything but a photocopier maker for years. It's neck deep in digital document management, printers and scanners for personal use, and perhaps most important, is one of the budding pillars of professional printing machinery. Didn't realize it? Yeah, the PR department has done a pretty poor job of telling the company's story. But, that's the key - the best investments are usually in companies nobody expected much from. Anyway, the proof is in the numbers. Check out this per-share earnings chart from cnbc.com. Though sales and earnings slumped in 2009 like every company's did, we've seen measurable progress since then, with more progress projected going forward. We've seen plenty of earnings 'beats' during this time too. The pros expect an annual earnings growth rate of about 9% for the next several years. There's no way of saying it's a red-hot growth story, but it's a good story, and the company is stable. And, that's the whole point of liking it now. While the next few months are apt to be slow - and possibly bearish if we get that correction we've been talking about - it's companies like Xerox that investors are going to be seeking out (and bidding up). All we're looking for here is a single or a double; we're not swinging for the fences. All of that being said, there's still a bit of urgency with XRX. The rebound effort from November is pretty well defined; shares have crossed back above all their key moving averages. While the rally has paused since early May, I think that may work to our advantage in that bullishness has been brewing the whole time. Once the ceiling at $9.13-ish is good and popped, it may well renew the bigger-picture uptrend. All we need is a nudge, though honestly, I've seen enough already. The clincher for me is the value; Xerox shares are trading at a trailing P/E of 9.9, and a forward-looking one of 7.8. I know the growth rate is pretty anemic, somewhat explaining the low P/E levels. They're still too low, though. It looks like the market is finally starting to agree. I could say more about Xerox, but I'll give you a break... you get where I'm going with it. Anyway, as I was writing yesterday's and today's newsletter, fully explaining how I went from a sectorwide call to a specific stock pick, a thought occurred to me - I've devoted a lot of time to (proverbially) teaching you to fish just for one fish, and maybe some of you just want to be given the fish. Heck, maybe some of you want to be given several fish per month. If you're just not getting enough trading ideas from the SmallCap Network newsletter [which I'd be the first to acknowledge is very possible], then you should check out the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity. With the SCN EO, you'll get more trading ideas, complete with targets and stop levels. You'll also get the philosophy to go along with the picks, but mostly, you'll get enough picks to keep you active... more suggestions than I could ever provide for you in the newsletter. The last I saw, they're still offering the free two-week trial, but you might want to check the link to be sure. I can't recommend these guys enough. Here's the deal. Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/