Most of the time we take a technical (chart-based) look at the market or its sectors to identify trade-worthy trends. Some of the time we'll take a fundamental-based approach to find investment-worthy sectors, or to figure out if the broad market as a whole is overvalued or undervalued. Every now and then though, an opportunity pops up that's not necessarily driven by fundamentals or technicals. Rather, some opportunities are driven by plain old common sense, and are evident to those willing to take a step back and see the bigger picture.
We've got one of those common sense, bigger-picture investment themes for you today.
Though it's been a while since we've done one of these, it's not the first time. I think it was early last year we pegged cybersecurity as an investment-worthy long-term theme, which wasn't exactly supported by fundamentals - nor the technicals - at the time, but has clearly been a big winner in the meantime. The Elite Opportunity also pegged the so-called Internet of Things as a big theme for investors in 2014 and 2015, and has done pretty well on that front with relevant stock picks from the IoT arena.
So what's the latest mega-trend that could bear fruit for forward-thinking investors from here? Those of you who live in California won't be surprised to hear us say water is an opportunity for investors willing and able to think in bigger-picture terms.
On the off-chance you've not heard, California's multi-year drought has become so difficult, for the first time in the state's history its government has mandated a 25% reduction in water usage.
Details of how that's supposed to happen weren't given, but it appears each local water district is to handle the reduced usage as it sees fit.
The decision in itself isn't something to invest in. The decision, however, underscores a much bigger problem that is investment-worthy, and sooner or later will yield nice returns. That problem is, we're running out of potable water, and we need ways to get clean water to an ever-increasing population when supplies of water are increasingly scarce.
The statistics, to put it bluntly, are ridiculous:
10% of U.S. homes have leaks that waste 90 gallons or more per day. That's 1 trillion gallons of water per year, nationally.
On average, about 700 water mains (the big pipes that carry water to a whole neighborhood) fail and need to be replaced every single day in the U.S.
Many people in the world live on 3 gallons of water per day, whereas U.S. residents use that much water just to flush the toilet.
The one number that really has me floored, however, is this one: In 2013, the American Society of Civil Engineer's issued a report card of the condition of the nation's infrastructure, and determined we would need to spend $1 trillion to update and repair our current water infrastructure.
None of this is actually new information, or even surprising. But, it's worth explicitly mentioning now because for the first time I can ever recall, we're being forced to deal with a problem that up until now we've been able to put off until later. California is running out of water now, and it's a problem that has to be dealt with now, as in this year.
I've got news for you though - it's not just California. Water supplies are being depleted in many places all over the country, and perhaps worse, water infrastructure is failing. In fact, some experts think if we could cut the bulk of water waste we as a nation are currently guilty of, much of the supply problem would be abated.
The follow-up question: How do we invest in this looming reality?
Well, we're not going to be able to name any names today, but for those who really want to think strategically and look for problem-solving companies, there are opportunities out there. If you need a nudge in the right direction though, I'd start with a Google search for terms like "desalination", "water infrastructure", "water pipe companies", and "water purification" to get you started. There aren't a lot of plays in this space, and even fewer pure plays, but there are some companies out there doing some really interesting stuff.
Anyway, we just wanted to plant that seed in your head today, as we know it's not the kind of thing you'll hear from the mainstream media - it's too obscure for them. As I've told you guys and gals before, though, some of my biggest winners have been stocks that were not only obscure, but downright strange.
I'll look for some other megatrends worth a closer look in the coming weeks. But, I'll also let you know John Monroe and the Elite Opportunity team are the go-to guys when it comes to spotting investment opportunities outside of your normal fundamental and technical parameters.
We mentioned to you above how the EO has been all over the Internet of Things trend well before it became a hot button for investors. It's hardly the only theme-based trade John and the Elite Opportunity researchers have unearthed though. Better still, Monroe and his crew have the time and resources needed to really get the most out of these theme-based trades, combining technical and fundamental criteria with common sense to come up with some outstanding investment ideas and trades.
In fact, a couple of Elite Opportunity members made a point of saying so today. Larry wrote:
"John, I am a SPX index option trader, and the EO newsletter each day is best info I have access to, hands down, period...I have studied under Dinapoli and Neil Hughes, so as a Fib D-levels trader, I can relate perfectly to your technical levels and charting...SCN is the best site on the trading web...."
Kenneth wrote specifically about today's Elite Opportunity edition:
"Your newsletter today was an epiphany for me. Sooooo simple and crystal clear, unlike many economic analysis I've read that left me in a fog. Thank you!"
Those are just two subscribers who recognize just how valuable the Elite Opportunity newsletter is by bringing a holistic approach to investing (the kind of approach we should all be using). You could be one of them! Here's how to become a member of the EO club. Or, just cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/
Other Bigger-Picture Ideas
It was purely a coincidence, but a couple of other posts at the site this week also dealt with the market's bigger-picture. Since we're all already in this mindset, I want to go ahead and direct you to a couple of those commentaries.
Chris Vermeulen asked "Do Equities Just Correct or Collapse in 2015?" today, and then offers an answer.
Last week we briefly discussed the impact a strong dollar could have on large caps and how that may differ than its impact on small caps. Richard Cox chimed in today with his thoughts, penning "Strong Dollar Seen Impacting Small Caps."
As always, if you've got something to say about the market or a stock, go ahead and post it at the site. If it's a well-reasoned argument or offers some good insight, you may even see it featured here in the newsletter.
Zzzzzz
It's a good thing we planned on talking mostly about water today, 'cause if we were relying on the overall market to come up with the bulk of today's message, there wouldn't be much to talk about.
The chart of the S&P 500 below is what it is. Despite Thursday's advance, the market still ended the day and the holiday-shortened trading week below the 20-day and 50-day moving average lines. Yet, it seemed to find support at the 100-day moving average line.
Honestly, there's just nothing here to get excited about.... bearishly or bullishly. I suppose that's for the best though. It means we can all enjoy what's sort of a three-day weekend (for most of us anyway) without wondering if we're on the right side of the table or not. Stocks are stuck in a stalemate right now.
Again though, don't stray too far from your computers. I still contend a bigger move is brewing, if only because most traders are starting to not expect any major movement in the near future. Stocks have a knack for dishing out things when they're least expected.
Hey, why not use the three-day weekend to peruse the Elite Opportunity archives? Your membership gives you immediate access to all the older newsletters John and his team have published in addition to receiving all the new ones published in the future by e-mail. You can sign up today and start digging in right now. Here's how, or just cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/