News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Market Update: The Floor's About to Crack
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

You can say this much for the bulls... they're persistent. It's unlikely to do them much good from the market's current elevated levels (yes, we're still slightly overbought - more below), but in the bigger picture it's encouraging to see that sustained enthusiasm.  Said another way, timing is everything. Most of our attention today will be focused in pinpointing the market's near-term ebb and flow.  We'll close out with a look at the highlights of this week's community commentary. Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR), Cardium Therapeutics (CXM), Fuqi International (FUQI), and a couple of other key stocks have made their way into the limelight.   The Floor's About to Crack They say when you don't know where to begin, it's a sign you should make your key point first, and then work your way backwards through your arguments. Sounds good to me, so here it is.... the market is still due for a dip, and can't advance much (if any) further until it pays that toll.  Yeah, I know that's anticlimactic. I'd rather you know where it was all going though, so you can understand the context behind my observations.  And yes, I also know it's the same message I've delivered three weeks in a row now. Though the call hasn't gotten traction yet, the market sure hasn't moved any higher since then. That stall has given the bears some time to expose the market's vulnerabilities though.  That said, let's just start listing them. 1. The upper Bollinger Band at 1163 is holding the line. Given its history of doing so, I'm not surprised that it's happening now. That in itself isn't inherently bearish, since it's pointed higher and could subsequently allow the market to trace the band line with a string of higher highs. [Side note - Even causing the market to move sideways for a few days is a relative victory for the upper Bollinger band line, as the longer the index stalls, the more apt fed up investors are to send it lower.]  2. Thursday's volume/bar screams 'pivot'. It wasn't the highest volume day we've seen in the last few weeks, but it's one of them. More importantly though, we saw the high volume on a day the bar was very tall, and with a major intra-day reversal (from high to low). This suggests the would-be sellers finally said enough is enough and started to take the bulk of their profits by selling into that strength.  The problem? Often, this sort of move kick-starts the transition from a net-buying environment to a net-selling environment. Today's similar rollover solidifies the possibility. 3. 'Up' volume has started to trend higher than 'down' volume, while 'advancers' have started to trend higher than 'decliners'. This isn't displayed on the nearby chart, but if you want to see what I mean, click here for a full screen shot of the NASDAQ up/down volume trends (depth) and its advancer/decliner trends (breadth). [The NYSE as well as the NASDAQ are both guilty of this, but it's more evident with the NASDAQ.] Ever since the big bullish pop on September 20th, the breadth and dept tide has been bearish.  4. Momentum is waning. Even with just a quick glance at the chart we can see that the acceleration we were enjoying has not only waned, but the rally itself has come to a dad stop. For you technicians, the bearish MACD crossunder (also not shown) is the official signal of a problem, but you don't even have to be an experience chart watcher to recognize something is now working against the market.  With all that being said, cheer up - this doesn't have to be the end of the world. In fact, it probably won't be.  All we need is a dip that's sizable enough to (1) burn off the euphoria and cause serious doubts about the market's future, and (2) unwind this overbought condition. A simple slide back to the 1110 for the SPX should do the trick, though we'll cross that bridge when we get to it.  Make no mistake though... it will be next to impossible for the market to make any further advance until the bulls can regroup and renew the effort at levels slightly lower than where we are now.  Helping you get more out of the market, James Brumley Editor - Small Cap Network    From the Community Why JNJ Will Always be Successful There's no bones about why Don Henderson added Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) as one of his picks this week; he describes his optimism in two brief but prescient points, which you can read here.  The Bigger Trend Always Wins - QCOR, WOR, and HEAT in Focus Don't look now, but Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOR) is under attack.... and losing the battle. If this chart slips just a few more cents - literally - it will snap a key support line, and the pent-up profit-taking potential is going to be unleashed in a hurry. Check it out. Cardium Gains Exclusive Access to Novel Polymer-Based Nitric Oxide Technology The saga of Cardium Therapeutics Inc. (NYSE:CXM) has been an eventful one, and well documented here at the Small Cap Network. Biagio R. Rao provides us with the latest chapter in this story....the latest technological coup is gaining access to a particular nitric oxide polymer that should further enhance the company's wound-care products. What Will the Months Ahead Bring About? DGIT, FUQI, TLR The stock can't seem to get a break, but as Dennis Askew points out, Fuqi International, Inc. (NASDAQ:FUQI) has been getting the job more than done on the sales and earnings front. The only liability here is a potential delisting (from the NASDAQ), but the company seems to have that under control as well. The fact that few others are as optimistic sets up an opportunity.  Despite Plunges, the Value Never Went Away - CSKI, COCO, & DGIT in View Is it possible that the 2/3 loss in the value of China Sky One Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSKI) could have been 100% errant? James Brumley thinks so, as the company has continued to post those stellar earnings numbers despite the stock's ongoing demise. The rebound since the ealry September gap, however, seems to finally be the bullish catalyst we needed. .    We Value Your Feedback Got comments, questions or suggestions? 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