Happy hump-day, one and all, and for those of you who took our advice on coal and/or aluminum stocks, it was a happy day indeed. Coal stocks were collectively up nearly 11% today, while aluminum stocks were up 6.2%. Those were the #1 and #3 performers for the day. The #2 spot was won by the non-ferrous metals stocks, largely for the same reason coal and aluminum stocks are up. Non-ferrous metal miners don't have the same bullish foundation that aluminum and coal stocks have right now though, so we'll stick with the two groups we came to the dance with. If my math is right, the Dow Jones Coal Index is now up 21% from our April 18th call, while the Dow Jones Aluminum Index is up 13% from our April 14th suggestion. Not too bad, considering how weak the market's been since then.
In any case, a bunch of you who've been following our saga of aluminum and coal have been asking how to turn those industry suggestions into a specific trade. The answer is, it depends.
I think we've said this before, but for those of you who are newcomers to the SCN newsletter it bears repeating: We're more than happy to give you some random thoughts and observations about the market in general and certain industries in particular (when appropriate). But, if you're looking for specific trading suggestions - complete with entries and targets - then the Elite Opportunity is what you're looking for. That's what John does pretty much every day... turns themes and bigger trends into specific trades.
He's good, too.... real good. I actually crunched the numbers a few days ago, and found that of all the short-term swing traded he's closed out since the beginning of 2014, the average gain has been 11%. There were 125 of them during that timeframe.
Do the mental math in your head with those figures - about 140 short-term trades at a gain of 11% apiece in just the span of about 16 months. It's the kind of performance that turns hedge fund managers green with envy.
Never even mind the results of the long-term Elite Opportunity portfolio.
That's not to say we'd never issue another specific trading idea here in the free end-of-day newsletter; anything's possible. It is to say, however, we have no plans to do so ever again, as John Monroe and his crew do such a good job with it, we couldn't ever hold a candle to the quantity and quality of his trading. So, why bother when we have easy access to the best?
If you'd like to tap into the power of the Elite Opportunity, here's how, or just cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/
Notice there are a variety of subscription terms available.
Now, about this market...
Zzzzzzz
Thank you Janet Yellen for saving the market today, but you didn't actually help that much. See, this market is on the fence, because you're on the fence. You're bullish, but not bullish enough to raise interest rates. I get the predicament, but sometimes deciding not to choose is still a choice (which is the second time this month I've invoked the timeless wisdom of Geddy Lee).
The daily chart of the S&P 500 tells a good portion of the story today with just a quick glance. That is, the index remains trapped between support at 2075, and below resistance at 2115. Optimistic or not, the market is going to have a tough time moving higher until earnings start to rise and justify the market's frothy valuation. The market's going to have a tough time moving lower, however, because enough people are optimistic enough that earnings growth is indeed around the corner.
You'll also notice the VIX is struggling to move higher, but really can't move any lower.
Here's the NASDAQ Composite's daily chart. It looks a little worse in that it's already below its 20-day moving average line. Yet - and as I suspected would be the case - the NASDAQ is finding support at the convergence of several key moving average lines around 4800.
This is maddening stuff. The only advice I have for you right now is to wait and see how it all plays out. It's not too often we see the market as a 50/50 proposition, but that is the shape of things at this time.
The good news is, crude oil was up nearly 3% today, reaching multi-week highs as a result. That's a big deal, as it's the energy sector that's taking the biggest toll on the broad market's overall earnings. If energy stocks are on the verge of swinging back to a profit on the heels of higher oil prices, that's going to have an oversized bullish impact on marketwide earnings.
I'm going to have a break-down of the market's Q1 earnings results thus far sometime on Thursday or Friday, which will really illustrate how big of a toll the energy sector's demise has taken on marketwide earnings. In the meantime, here's an updated look at our oil supply/demand/import chart we've been studying for a while. Not that one or two weeks makes a trend, but it does appear the supply is starting to subside. Only time will tell if this is just a seasonal dip or structural one. It does validate the recent rise in oil prices though.
You'll also see the recent peaks in refinery-inputs and capacity utilization mark a second lower low for each. Now if we can just get the stock levels tally moving lower....
Again, stay tuned - we'll have a closer look at the energy sector and how it's impacting marketwide profitability later this week.