Hope your weekend was positively eventful. It appears we're off to another fairly volatile week for the major markets. No real news or material changes to speak of with any of our Featured Stocks. One of our newest ideas, DSCO, seems to be cooperating trading up nicely so far while our other newest idea, VRML, hasn't done much either way yet, but that can change on a dime.
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Back to the markets now. Last week ended up being a positive one for the major indexes as the NDX led a two-day charge catching sellers a little off guard with a pretty solid relief rally. Based on where we're at now though, a number of things could happen. I've included an hourly chart here of the NDX for your review. It provides the best picture of the options the market has in terms of where it may want to go in the days ahead.
Right now, we're seeing a bit of weakness but that's to be expected on the heels of last week's strong surge to the upside. It appears the NDX found a short-term bottom around 2629 before deciding to back and fill some of the recent selloff. What I find compelling is the strength of Thursday and Friday's move. The markets love to make things difficult for traders to speculate and last week's strong two day move to the upside was no exception. It most definitely made it much tougher for short sellers to have conviction going into this week.
Like I mentioned last week, we need follow through to the upside now if this market is going to make last Wednesday's low the bottom for weeks to come. However, I suspect regardless of where this market goes, we're going to see a fair amount of volatility before the market decides a definitive direction once again.
As I type, the NDX is hovering around 2728 so that gives us about a hundred points on the NDX for us to determine the next big move in the market. Even if we trade close to that 2629 number, investors shouldn't be running for the hills just yet. However, should we trade below that number, there's likely going to be another leg down which will simply offer more value to longer-term players.
Any serious strength displayed by the NDX over the next few days will most certainly make an argument that this market may be heading higher over the next few weeks. A move lower filling some of the gaps in the chart you see wouldn't be a surprise and doesn't necessarily mean this market is going to make a new low.
However, we're going to stick to our theme of buying put options on the rips and closing them out on the dips until further notice. This market right now is offering plenty of profitable opportunities if you're on the right side of the trade. Volatility in the market is a beautiful thing.
When Small Caps Run, You'll Know the Market Will Follow
Maybe your new to our Newsletter, maybe not. If not, we haven't brought this to your attention in a long while but wanted to point it out while many investors are fairly stumped right now as to what this market may want to do in the coming weeks ahead.
I've included a daily chart of the Russell 2000 (black bars) in an overlay of the NDX (red and green bars). By the way, do you prefer our black background charts we normally use or this new white background? Some readers have been telling us the black background makes for tough reading, what do you think?
What you'll see here is when the markets really started to take off back in Q4 of last year, the Russell led the charge, which is usually the sign of a "risk on" mentality which is good for stocks. When speculators and "adventure capitalists" start to take over the markets, you can usually assume we're in for a pretty bullish ride. However, as it stands right now, the Russell 2000 is underperforming the NDX which suggests there's still some uncertainty out there as to whether or not stocks can substantiate higher valuations from here or not.
This something most definitely worth keeping an eye on. If and when small caps start to outpace their larger brethren, this can provide an early indication that the major indexes may be staging another big move up. For now though, that doesn't appear to be the case.
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We typically don't take on an all or none stance when it comes to the markets, other than index trading, we look for all types of opportunities. Last week, we pointed out the strength in biotech which makes perfect sense right now. Healthcare is a very big growth story going forward and since the markets are struggling right now to decide if the fundamentals are there or not to support current stock prices, it appears there's been a stronger shift in interest where fundamentals don't always mean much... like with biotech.
There's also been a fair share of very speculative stocks out there getting a lot of positive attention from investors and traders. LUXR provided SCN Members with an amazing short-term profit play from our entry of $.80 cents. Believe us, there's always ways to make money in the markets and there's always going to be an opportunity to make money with select small stocks, you just have to be prudent and be willing to keep your eyes and ears on the prowl.
Let's see what the rest of the week brings us because I have no doubt it's going to be an interesting one.
See you tomorrow...