News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Kicking the Can Down the Road
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Hope you had a nice weekend. We normally get what's called June gloom here in San Diego where cloud cover rules the weather roost, but we had an amazing run of sun in June here for the first time in years. It's likely going to be a very slow week. With July 4th and many market professionals taking the week off, we don't think much of the markets this week regardless of what happens. Although there's always the possibility of a significant event taking place that could affect the markets, I suspect we're going to see low volumes and apathy throughout the week making it pretty much a non-event. With that being said, we'll publish our newsletter today and tomorrow, but forego a Wednesday, Thursday and Friday edition. Even we deserve a break from time-to-time. Friday, we had a furious rally of the major indexes on the heels of Thursday's sharp move higher at the close. The media was cheering over Europe's early signs of their willingness to lend each other a helping hand. Couple that with closing out a month, closing out a quarter and extremely high short interest in the markets, and you have the perfect storm for the markets to snap back prior to a Holiday week. Call it painting the tape, window dressing or whatever you want... I'm not going to get overly excited at this point about Friday's big move to the upside until we see what happens next week. To put things in perspective, we'll reiterate that 2978 on the NASDAQ Composite (COMPQ) should provide a fairly significant resistance level in the event the markets decides to move a little higher this week. The June 4th low of roughly 2723 still remains the bottom for now. Anything and everything that happens inside of that range is nothing but short-term jostling for traders to scalp profits. Additionally, if you're going to be active in the markets this week, do it at your own risk. Low volumes and apathy are a great combo for market makers to prove anyone wrong on any given day, so I'd suggest not doing anything too crazy until everyone gets back to work next Monday. Just a little advice from someone who has been there and done that. When Greenspan Speaks, Everyone Should Listen For the record, I usually mute CNBC and the other financial media channels for a good part of the day unless I see something that peaks my interest enough to pay attention. However, on Friday as I was wrapping up the day, I saw something I most definitely wanted to pay close attention to. Also, since many of you probably have jobs to attend to each day, maybe you miss key interviews like this that can be very informative in nature. Maria Bartiromo, one of CNBC's best interview anchors, managed to corral Alan Greenspan for a good half hour interview that I thought was well worth watching. She always seems to have this innate ability to get the most interesting and powerful individuals in the financial space to sit down with her and share their thoughts. While we believe we have the necessary knowledge to both fundamentally and technically break down an individual stock, as well as technically analyze the major indexes, we always say it's important to leave the in-depth analysis of our economy to those who have dedicated their professional life to it. They are the ones spending countless hours slicing and dicing it and what they think inevitably gets built into the price of stocks and the major indexes as a whole. Greenspan was our Fed Chairman from 1987 - 2006. Like him or not, we consider him to be one of the smartest men on planet earth when it comes to not only our economy here at home, but spanning the globe too. Pun was intended there, sorry had to do it. Now that he works in the private sector, his insight becomes even more relevant since he's got no apparent reasons to support anyone outside of his own opinions now. Although Greenspan had many interesting insights to share, we're just going to give you the bottom line based on our observation of the interview. I'll preface it by saying we, along with many others in the financial space, have our concerns about the state of our economy on a go forward basis. We all know lagging economic data has pointed to the fact we're just sluggishly bumping our way along with no real clear signs of strength on the horizon. That type of mentality can often create paralysis through analysis. However, Greenspan was extremely adamant about a few key points. He clearly confirmed our economy is in very dire straits, but the most interesting point he made was that due to no real signs of inflation, our current Fed monetary policies will likely continue to work to a point. Don't get me wrong here. He wasn't saying he agreed with current policy decisions these days, he was simply saying that the Fed's current monetary policies will likely continue to work for a while, but at some point we'll have to face the harsh reality that bailing water out of the boat isn't a long-term solution to a sinking boat. He made it clear that at some point, we actually have to fix the hole in the boat, not just keep bailing water from it. He coined it as, "kicking the can down the road." At some point, we're going to have to pick up the can and deal with it, he said. Greenspan also provided his two cents on Europe's current financial crisis by basically making the same statement, except that he believed the only way that Europe is going to fix their financial problems is through a major shift in the political landscape of Europe. He made it clear that not only are they in a very similar boat to that of the United States, but that Europe must work toward one governing body if they're going to continue to support the Euro. It made perfect sense to me. If you're going to have European Central Banks making policy decisions for all of these countries, then you're going to have to have a more uniformed form of central government for Europe as a whole. What's the likeliness of that happening anytime soon? Slim to none if you ask me. He mentioned that there's just way too many varying opinions and policies among the European nations for the ESB's to be ultimately be effective for the long haul. What I got out of this interview were a few very important key points. First, although the current state of our economy here in the U.S. leaves a lot to be desired, stocks and the markets in general can continue to do well for at least a good while. Sometimes when we tend to harness an opinion of something, we tend to believe that it's going to happen right away. What I learned from the interview was even though I don't think our economy is good for stocks right now, it may take months or even years for the true result to rear its ugly head, therefore, leaving the door open for more potential gains to the upside in the time being. Secondly, as long as we continue to kick the can down the road, there will be a day of reckoning we're going to be forced to deal with. So, if the markets decide to start moving higher, it will make sense to me now. However, if the markets at some point start to go parabolic to the upside, we're going to be looking for a very logical point to play contrarian. Like Greenspan said, this could take a good while before it's going to play itself out, so for now, let's continue to not fight the market, but rather profit from it.