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End of the Line for Stocks? Looks at LVLT, GY, CBAI, ANAD, & JASO
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

With the second big intra-day pullback in a row, and being on pace to take the fourth daily loss in the last six trading sessions, it's kind of tough for the bulls to maintain their enthusiasm. Do we take the clues at face value, or, do we remain buyers in the face of growing challenges to the rally? Thoughts on the matter are below.  First, however, let's recap some of the most recent write-ups from the community pages. On the radar this week are Cord Blood America (CBAI), ANADIGICS (ANAD), Level 3 Communications (LVLT), GenCorp (GY), and JA Solar Holdings (JASO). Summaries and links to their full articles are below.    Stocks In Focus Let the Sun Shine; Solar, Solar, Solar: JASO, CSIQ, ESLR  With solar power back en vogue again now that the global economy is on firmer footing, JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ:JASO) is considered a 'buy' according to Dennis Askew. Bigger quarterly numbers speak for themselves, but the company's entry into a new arena - as well as the development of a better technology - are the means by which JA Solar Holdings will be able to sustain that growth trend.  Technical Forecasts for GY, BNVI, and HERO When James Brumley mentioned that GenCorp Inc. (NYSE:GY) was on the verge of a trade-worthy breakout move, he probably didn't know that move was going to materialize as soon as today. But, it did. From this point forward, now that the ceiling's been broken, GenCorp should face much less of a headwind.  Three Up, Three Down - Looming Strikeouts From VG, LVLT, and COIN Level 3 Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ:LVLT) ran into a known resistance level last week, and has behaved pretty much as expected... by falling back. On the other side of this pattern, however, is a likely revisit to a known support line. The problem is, that floor's about 20% beneath the current price of Level 3 Communications. If you're an owner, or thinking about a short, check out the chart.  Too Hot, or Not Hot Enough? Sorting Out CONN, CIGX, and CBAI Though Cord Blood America Inc. (OTC:CBAI) has technically gone nowhere over the last two months, it remains one of the small cap segment's most compelling technical possibilities. At the same time it's been knocking on the door of resistance, it's being pushed higher by a rising support line. Eventually, Cord Blood America will be forced past one boundary or another, and when it is, it could mean fireworks. The chart is definitely worth a look.  Why They're Closing In On 52-Week Highs: ZGEN, MHGC, ANAD The key to being successful in the mobile phone arena isn't understanding today's customers and technology - it's understanding how tomorrow's customer will use their mobile device, and creating the technology needed for the future. Enter ANADIGICS, Inc. (NASDAQ:ANAD). The company's 4G Long Term Evolution - or LTE - product mix perfectly position ANADIGICS for the future. Why's that? By 2015, half of all mobile customers will be tapping LTE coverage.    Stocks In Focus Yes, stocks are up a hair today, snapping back from a tough go of things yesterday. Given that we're now seeing just as many bearish days as we are bullish days though, I can't help but wonder if today's just the last round of straggling buyers jumping in before the pullback begins.  All the clues certainly suggest the rally's getting tired; some of the indices are running into known resistance lines as well.  Take the NASDAQ Composite for instance. It's now back at the same line that capped the rally in September and January. That's the purple line on the chart. While not all indices are that well lined up with prior ceilings, most of them are close to that potential resistance.  More than that though, I can't help but notice how - visually - the indices are starting to slow down as these resistance lines are approached; the pace of gains has nearly grinded to a halt.  In fact, technical analysts (and I am one) would have a hard time arguing that the market had any momentum left. The NASDAQ's MACD lines will inevitably complete a bearish crossover by Monday. While the indicator itself isn't perfect, it's been more right than wrong lately... especially when timing the retreats out of an overbought condition (which we're in now). In other words, I'll take that MACD crossunder at face value and expect the overdue correction straight ahead.  In conjunction with the NASDAQ's rollover is the CBOE's NASDAQ Volatility Index, or VXN. Like its S&P 500 counterpart, the VXN is a contrarian indicator, and moves inversely with the composite. Just like the NASDAQ is giving us a bearish MACD indication, the VXN is giving us a positive MACD indication... meaning the VXN is trending higher. The only big difference between the VXN's and the NASDAQ's MACD lines is that the VXN's are about three days ahead - we already have that complete crossover.  Yes, the NASDAQ Volatility Index and its MACD lines are prone to fake-outs too, but let's face it... investors as a group have been buying stocks pretty recklessly over the last half of this 10%+ rally. While the news hasn't been 'bad' per se, it's not necessarily been positive in ways we weren't aware of three months ago.  We're it just the rising VXN, or just the stalling indices, or just the encounter with prior technical ceilings, I could possibly dismiss the worries. To see them all unfold at the same time though? That's a red flag I can't ignore.  And don't even get me started on the weak breadth and depth (participation and volume, respectively) trends we've seen materialize over the last couple of weeks. I didn't have time or room to add that dimension to the chart today, but I'll post that discussion soon. Let it suffice for now to say the market's underpinnings aren't nearly as healthy as the indices' recent progress would lead one to believe. Stay tuned for the detailed chat.  With all that being said, the correction I see coming is a garden variety pullback - nothing more.  Odds are strong the gloom-and-doomers will see a modest pullback and scream "the beginning of the end" like they always do. While the dip may be bigger than a normal correction - perhaps somewhere on the order of 10% - the rally that got us here in the first place was also bigger than normal. You take the good and the bad together; don't freak out.  I'll be shopping - bullishly - for new stocks once the NASDAQ gets back to the 2100-ish area and starts to test the bullish waters again. In the meantime, I'll mostly be making exits on my current long trades, and shorting a couple of things. None of it will be all that extraordinary.    We Value Your Feedback Got comments, questions or suggestions? Send 'em on over: Email the Editor If you wish to send a written request or inquiry, please send it to our physical address: TGR Group, LLC  4653 Carmel Mtn Rd  Suite 308 #402  San Diego, CA 92130   Share the SCN Newsletter If you find the Small Cap Network Newsletter informative and profitable, please forward our newsletter alert service to like-minded friends and associates who share similar market interests.   Ensure Newsletter Delivery To ensure newsletter delivery, you can add any additional email addresses you may have to the Small Cap Network Member List. 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