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VOLUME 08 : ISSUE 47
A
Tale of Two Small Caps (& One's a Tragedy)
This
week has been an earnings parade for several small cap companies, including
a couple of our own focus stocks. Some have done well, and some have not.
We'll get to those details in a moment...just bear in mind these numbers
not only affect shareholders, but may also have an impact on our official
opinion of the companies.
Also,
we've got some interesting fine print from Bio-Matrix's recent 10Q. The
biotech company is pre-revenue, so we weren't looking for a top line. What
caught our attention was some text that didn't have anything to do with
the numbers (at least not yet).
Applied
DNA Raises the Bar
The
press release came out this morning, though some of you may have seen that
Applied DNA's (OTCBB:
APDN) quarterly numbers were filed last night. Here's a recap of
the 10Q for their fiscal Q2...
Sales
were up. The company pulled in $207K over the prior three months. There's
no meaningful quarter-over-quarter comparison, since revenue didn't start
until mid-2007. Just for reference though, in Q1 of this year, they did
$123 million, and they did $122 million in sales in the quarter before
that. In other words, they're making reasonable strides in the right
direction.
As
far as earnings go, the cost of sales was $46K, leading to a gross
profit of $161K. Not bad. The net loss shrank significantly - to 1 cent
per share - on lowered operating expenses.
I have
to give credit where credit is due - they're growing the business.
Annualizing this quarter's results means they're doing about $800K per
year. I don't think profitability is too far down the road to think about.
On
the other hand, I don't know if we should be looking for profits three
months from now either. These numbers are fine for a company that wasn't
doing any sales at all this time last year, but it can sure make it tough
for an investor to justify a $20 million market cap.
I've
always said own you stocks for where the company is going - not
for where they've been. In light of the company's sales increase, the question
here is one of time and value, not success or failure. The company is
already successful. The question is, how successful?
When
we first profiled Applied DNA we pointed out how counterfeiting cost legitimate
companies up to $600 billion in sales per year. Clearly the market is there
- the goal now is to capture a piece of it. How much could/should that
mean for Applied DNA? We conservatively estimated revenues of $25 million
per year for the company would more than justify the stock's price, and
we're sticking with that basic framework.
You
don't need us to tell you $800K is a far cry from something in the $20
million range. They are moving in the right direction. We even think
they'll get there eventually. They need some bigger deals though, and soon...some
million and multi-million dollar deals. I think they'll get them
in time.
As
a long-term investor, I like what Applied DNA brings to the table. I just
don't know how inspired the short-term thinkers are going to be until they
start turning all these partnerships (like Supima, PrintColor, & IIMAK)
into revenue. Like I said, all in time. And who knows? Maybe this
top line increase will end up inspiring some strength. The press
release is below.
Smart
Energy Lowers the Bar
I confess
I'm not sure if I'm shocked or not. I knew Smart Energy Solutions (OTCBB:
SMGY) was struggling - quite a bit - to grow their already-anemic
top line. However, I'm not sure I expected to see such a significant
drop in sales. I did though - this quarter's revenue was 37.7%
less than the same quarter a year earlier. They did $397K in Q1 of
this year versus $637K in Q1 a year ago.
The
reason they gave? "...sales of the Battery Brain product fell as a
result of delays in receipt of purchase orders from key distributors and
orders for private label products that are not carried in inventory and
needed to be manufactured."
I'll
provide a translation - the things aren't selling.
This
company has just been a disaster. They're not bad guys - in fact. the management
team seems quite intelligent. They're just not getting the Battery Brain
on enough shelves, and then pushed through into consumers hands. They thought
they could do it, but have yet to get any traction.
At
this point I'm inclined to go ahead and dump the company from our watchlist;
there's no sense in any of us wasting any more time on 'em. That's not
an official decision yet, as I want to sleep on it for a day or
two. I just don't see things getting any better for Smart Energy.
A
Bio-Matrix Tidbit
I didn't
mention Bio-Matrix Scientific Group's (OTCBB:
BMSN) 10Q they files a few days ago because they're pre-revenue
...there's nothing to talk about with the numbers. I did start combing
through the fine print of the quarterly report though (where the good
stuff usually is), and found an interesting tidbit.
I
recalled hearing something about this early on in our due diligence process,
but could never find anything official about it - until now. Apparently,
Bio-Matrix is striking up some sort of deal with UCLA to develop a screening
test for gestational diabetes.
There
aren't a lot of details, but if the 10Q's brief description of actions-to-be-taken
were indeed taken, the University of California and Bio-Matrix have at
least filed for a patent, and will jointly use the patent if awarded. I
don't know when or if we'll get more information about the partnership,
but I do feel it could be big. Gestational diabetes affects about 135,000
women in the U.S. each year (3% to 10% of pregnancies).
I'll
see if I can find anything else, though the information may be minimal
for a reason.
Anyway,
here's the Applied DNA press release.
Applied
DNA Sciences Continues its Positive Performance in Second Quarter
Announcing
Third Consecutive Quarter of Revenues
STONY BROOK, N.Y.,
May 16, 2008/Business Wire/ -- Applied DNA Sciences, Inc. (OTC Bulletin
Board: APDN) reported its revenues for the second fiscal quarter of 2008
ending March 30, 2008. Revenues reported for the second quarter were $207,737,
representing the third consecutive quarter of continued revenue growth
for the company.
"In the second
quarter, our revenues were at the highest level since we began operations.
We still have more work to do, but I am very pleased with the continued
progress we are making toward building a growing and profitable business,"
commented Dr. James A. Hayward, President and CEO of APDN. "The progress
we have made enables us to now bring even greater focus on further developing
our technology and expanding our customer base. Our management team is
focused on creating shareholder value, building alliances, creating value
from our technologies and maximizing the dynamic opportunities of our technologies.
"
Second Quarter
Highlights include:
Revenues of $207,737,
a 69% increase from the previous quarter;
Reorder for SigNature
DNA markers for the cash-in-transit industry within one month of shipping
first order;
Additional order
of DermalRx ingredient to multinational customer
SigNature DNA marked
labels shipped to Rhodia, an international specialty chemical company;
Completed development
stage of agreement with IIMAK for thermal transfer ribbons combined with
SigNature DNA and began pilot manufacturing;
Signed memorandum
of understanding with Smiths for Bio-seeq PLUS for portable forensic authentication
of SigNature DNA.
"We are pleased
with our results for this quarter," stated Kurt Jensen, APDN Chief Financial
Officer. "We continue to see improvement in our business, including repeat
orders and new customers. We are confident about the current strength of
the company and look forward to our future prospects."
About APDN
Applied DNA Sciences
markets and sells DNA encrypted and embedded solutions that are forensically
authenticated by machine readable devices. These solutions can be easily
integrated with a range of inks, threads, varnishes, adhesives as well
as thermal ribbon, inkjet and laser ink. Applied DNA Sciences' products
can help protect the brands and intellectual property that can easily be
eroded by counterfeiting, product diversion and fraud. APDN's common stock
is listed on the Over-The-Counter Bulletin Board under the symbol "APDN".
The statements
made by APDN may be forward-looking in nature and are made pursuant to
the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform
Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements describe APDN's future plans, projections,
strategies and expectations, and are based on assumptions and involve a
number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control
of APDN. Actual results could differ materially from those projected due
to our short operating history, limited financial resources, limited market
acceptance, market competition and various other factors detailed from
time to time in APDN's SEC reports and filings, including our Annual Report
on Form 10-KSB, filed on January 15, 2008 and our subsequent quarterly
reports on Form 10-QSB. APDN undertakes no obligation to update publicly
any forward-looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances
after the date hereof to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
SOURCE Applied
DNA Sciences, Inc.
/CONTACT: Debbie
Bailey, 631-444-8090, fax: 631-444-8848/
/FCMN Contact:
info@adnas.com /
/Web site: http://www.ADNAS.com
/
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