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VOLUME 06: ISSUE 68
Clearly
Canadian Is Clearly On The Right Track
Never
let it be said we didn't give you plenty of notice about the opportunity.
Clearly Canadian (OTCBB:
CCBEF) just posted their 2nd quarter results, and you know what? We're
now even more convinced this company's revival is the real deal.
Revenue and gross profits were up from the previous quarter, as well as
higher than Q2 of last year. By doing this, they've also achieved something
critical to their long-term prosperity - growth in cash flow. In
fact, this is the second quarter in a row revenue has increased on a quarter-over-quarter
basis. Needless to say, Clearly Canadian is living up to all of our turn-around
expectations.
For
the quarter ended June 30th of 2006, sales totaled $2.67 million, 10.5%
above the Q2 2005 revenue total of $2.4 million. Gross profits (sales minus
the cost of sales) came in at $763,000, versus only $642,000 for the same
quarter in the prior year. And for perspective, in Q1 of 2006, the company
posted sales of $1.7 million, versus $1.64 million in 2005. Gross profits
for Q1 totaled $360,000, which was a little less than Q1 2005's gross profits
of $448,000.
But
here's the key point to keep in mind...Clearly Canadian hasn't actually
seen sales growth for years, until now. Revenues in 2004
were less than 2003's total, and 2005's sales were lower than 2004's. Get
the picture? The path they were on then is NOT the path they're
on now - a point we made when we first
profiled Clearly Canadian back in January. We billed the company as
a turn-around play, which it has been...and a particularly good one too.
Today's news is more evidence of the same.
Cash
Flow
Above,
we talked about the importance of cash flow. One could also make the counter-argument
that earnings are an important piece of the puzzle, and we'd generally
agree with the idea. And, if we didn't think Clearly was going to eventually
get back into the black, you wouldn't even be reading this now. But what
we really want to see - and what most investors should want
to see from any company they own - is proof of the ability to grow earnings.
How do you do that? By growing the top line of the income statement,
and selling your product above cost. Clearly Canadian has done both.
It
may seem like a no-brainer to sell your goods with at least a slightly
positive margin, but you'd be surprised how many companies will spend $2
to make a widget they sell for $1. There are also just as many companies
putting up attractive earnings figures, but only because they've slashed
expenses to the bone. It's great in the short run, but you have to invest
in your business if you want it to grow. As Tom Peters says, you 'can't
shrink your way to greatness'. Given the choice, we'd much rather see Clearly
Canadian work on expanding its market share and revenue totals first, which
it has. Earnings, and earnings growth, are in store for any company able
to grow sales and gross profits.
Earnings
And
speaking of earnings, how did Clearly do? For the quarter, the company
lost $2.62 million. For the same quarter last year, Clearly Canadian lost
$1.67 million. Before you balk, don't forget the lesson
we learned a couple of weeks ago from Network Installation's (OTCBB:
NWKI) mid-year earnings results. In the middle of 2005, Network Installation
had no revenue, and was taking big losses. By the middle
of 2006, the loss had been shaved to 1/4 of what it was a year earlier,
and revenue was through the roof. The news drove the stock from 22 cents
to the current price of 33 cents...and it had been as high as 46 cents.
Based solely on the numbers, a lot of investors would have avoided NWKI.
Savvy investors, though, read the fine print. They knew Network
Installation was involved in a key acquisition that wouldn't bear fruit
right away. Patient shareholders were well rewarded though, just in the
last couple of weeks.
The
lesson also applies to Clearly Canadian's figures - don't come to any conclusions
about earnings unless you also read the fine print. After all, the income
statement only tells you where the company has been; we only care about
where the company is going.
So
what's the deal? The quarterly loss got bigger primarily because of payroll
increases, like a one-time financing cost, a one-time video programming
expense, a one-time design fee, a one-time restructuring cost, and about
a $300,000 increase in stock compensation expenses from granted stock options
(that may end up being a one-time event, at least to that magnitude). See
the common theme there? Most of the added expenses are not ongoing
operating costs. And, the ones that are ongoing are also investments in
talented people - something well worth the cost. In simplest terms, we
don't see any fundamental problem with Clearly Canadian's fundamentals.
They're actually fairly typical of a turn-around company. Clearly is spending
money on the right things, and taking care of cash flow first.
As
For Clearly Canadian's Shareholders (Current or Future)...
Of
course, the point of all of this ultimately boils down to the company's
stock, or more specifically, its potential for gain.
Trading
just above $3 right now, we have to say the current level is a pretty sweet
entry point, especially in light of the bullish explosion we saw in its
recent past. Just look back from mid-May to mid-June, as shares rocketed
from a low of $2.55 to a high of $4.55. A lot of the move was news-based,
but as we went back and tried to synchronize the chart and the dates of
all the news releases, we also discovered a big chunk of the rally wasn't
news-based. The implication? CCBEF shares are garnering investor interest
on their own merit - the prodding from news (like this) is just
gravy. It all helps though.
From
a technical perspective, as we said, $3 is a great entry spot - not just
because it's relatively low, but also because the $3 area appears to be
an established base. Perhaps more important is the oversold condition the
stock seems to be coming out of. We actually became oversold in
mid-August, and have seen more than a little pressure to push shares out
from this rut. The problem is, it hasn't been able to get any traction
with those efforts. All that's needed is some sort of catalyst - to put
a little more volume behind the move. Historically speaking, good
news has done the trick.
Clearly
Canadian (still) makes for a fantastic trading opportunity, plain and simple.
By
the way, what do you think of the new charts? We're experimenting
with a different color scheme (white background instead of black), and
would like to know what you think. E-mail
us and let us know your opinion. And while you're doing that, feel
free to let us know of anything else you'd like to see - or not see - in
future editions. We want to make this newsletter and website everything
you'd like it to be.
Click
here to see the official SEC filing from the Clearly Canadian website.
We
Value Your Feedback
Got comments, questions or suggestions?
Send 'em on over: Editor@smallcapnetwork.com
If you wish to send a written request
or inquiry, please send it to our physical address:
TGR Group, LLC
4653 Carmel Mtn Rd Suite 308 #402
San Diego, CA 92130
Here's
Your Second Chance on Network Installation...With A Little Less Anxiety
Back
on August
15th we were singing a pretty positive tune about Network Installation
(OTCBB: NWKI). After
all, the company had just made a giant improvement in earnings and revenue,
and a major debt restructure virtually eliminated all of the company's
potential share dilution. Better yet, Network was on track to repeat that
performance in the future...what wasn't to like?
Of
course, if you were in a stock position before any of the news was
released, then you're probably still a little sea-sick. On the 11th, shares
closed at 22 cents. On the 17th, they closed at 42 cents. On the 23rd,
they closed at 32 cents. As of right now, they're trading at 37 cents.
That's a heck of a lot of traveling for just a 19 day trip.
For
those who can stomach the volatility - and even trade it - then congratulations...you
did well. For anybody who is (understandably) hesitant to buy into volatility,
or is worried the biggest piece of the potential gain was already reaped
by someone else, then now's your second chance. The stock
has settled down. All the would-be profit-takers, scalpers, swing traders,
and nervous Nellie's are pretty much done with their business, as the news
has become a little stale. The volatility they tend to create is much less
of a factor now.
Left
behind are the logical, rationale investors...which includes us to a large
extent. And what do we see now? Just look at the chart (click
here). The stock survived all those wild swings, and has established
a base around 33 cents. Back above the key moving average lines, and well
above some significant resistance levels, we'd say it's safe to get back
in the water here. However, there's still a little bit of lingering volatility,
so you still want to be smart about your entry point.
Like
Clockwork, The 'Cheap Oil' Chatter Is Starting To Spread
In
Tuesday's
newsletter we took a look at crude oil futures. As a quick recap, our
expectation was a very short-term price dip to somewhere around $67 per
barrel, and then a rebound (again) of as much as $20. Of course, with crude
priced around $69 and change at the time, we didn't think we were quite
at the bottom yet.
You
may recall - and here's the critical point - we said the short-term bottom
would be marked by a media celebration of cheap oil and gasoline, with
droves of people becoming certain we were permanently past our gas pump
woes. In short, we felt (and still do) the price of crude would shoot
higher only when the majority of interested parties thought that it wouldn't.
You know, expect it when you least expect it.
Well,
we got our first major media installment of the 'cheap oil' chatter on
Wednesday, in a USA Today article. Click
here to see the whole article, but to sum it up, the journalist put
a spin on things that all but guaranteed the era of expensive oil was coming
to a close.
It
was just an oddly bold statement from the same journalistic lemmings who
said stocks were selling off Tuesday on consumer confidence figures...all
three major indices closed higher that day. Frankly, the article is a little
incomplete, ignoring other major factors. However, it's certainly fun to
dream about, isn't it?
Look,
nobody would love to see cheap gas more than us, even if it means we were
wrong about our call. But we would never - even in a journalistic way that
didn't include being held accountable - say anything with this much certainty.
This amount of confidence is the arrogance we were warning you about.
Point being, this kind of article indeed points to a bottom being made
very soon.
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L A I M E R:
The Small Cap
Digest, the Small Cap Network, its website and email newsletter (hereafter,
cumulatively referred to as "SCD") , is an independent electronic publication
committed to providing its readers with factual information on select publicly
traded companies. SCD is owned and operated by TGR Group, LLC ("TGR").
TGR is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer. All companies
are chosen on the basis of certain financial analysis and other pertinent
criteria with a view toward maximizing the upside potential for investors
while minimizing the downside risk, whenever possible.
Moreover, as detailed below, TGR
accepts compensation from third party consultants and/or companies, which
it features in the publication and circulation of SCD. To the degrees enumerated
herein, SCD should not be regarded as an independent publication.
Click
Here or go to http://access.smallcapnetwork.com/compensation_disclosure.html
to view our compensation on every company we have ever covered, or visit
the following web address: http://www.smallnetwork.net/profile_disclosure.html
for our full profiles and http://access.smallcapnetwork.com/short_term_alerts.html
for Trading Alerts.
TGR Group LLC has been paid a fee
of $30,000 and 200,000 newly issued restricted shares of Network Installation
for coverage of the company. In addition, one of the principles of TGR
Group LLC is also a principle of MarketByte LLC. In a separate contractual
relationship in 2003, MarketByte LLC was paid a fee of $25,000 in cash
and 500,00 newly issued, restricted shares by Network Installation for
coverage of the company. The term of MarketByte's obligation to Network
Installation has expired. The aforementioned 500,000 shares issued to MarketByte
LLC have become free trading, and whatever number remains could be sold
at anytime. This should be viewed as a potential conflict of interest.
TGR Group LLC has been paid a fee
of $30,000 and pledged 150,000 warrants with an exercise price of $2, currently
convertible into restricted shares of Clearly Canadian, by Level III Research,
for its coverage of Clearly Canadian.
From time to time TGR sells shares
received as compensation for coverage of client companies. Shares received
are sold in the open market. Since the shares are received as compensation
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AND DO THEIR OWN DUE DILIGENCE BEFORE INVESTING IN ANY SECURITIES MENTIONED.
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