Welcome back, folks. We hope you all had a great weekend.
You know, while I usually have a pretty good idea of what I'm going to say in the next couple of newsletters (there's always more to say to you guys than I have time or space to say it in), I'm not too proud to confess that as of yesterday afternoon, I was still unsure of what I wanted to pass along to our readers in Monday's newsletter.
Then almost as if on cue, today's worthy material presented itself.
You may have seen it on 60 Minutes last night, but even if you didn't see it, I'm sure you heard about somewhere via the internet today... high frequency trading hurts small investors. That's the way Michael Lewis - the same Michael Lewis that's already written a couple of semi-relevant books - sees it anyway. You may have seen the slightly more alarming headlines labeling the market as a rigged game that only a privileged few can actually win, as they have more information, and they get it a little earlier than you do. Mark Cuban, of internet-startup and Dallas Mavericks fame, agreed with Lewis (though I'm still trying to figure out why Cuban's opinion actually matters).
My response to the not-surprising and hardly-new assessment of high frequency trading? Whatever.... I don't really care, and I don't think the vast majority of you should bother worrying about the inequity of high-frequency trading either
Surprised to hear me say that? Let me explain.
The gist of Lewis' argument is, since big trading firms have access to more data and get it sooner than you, they know what stocks to buy and sell before everyone else gets the same data and has a chance to place their buys and sells.
It's only a matter of seconds that these so-called high frequency traders get their information before you do, and it's only a matter of pennies that it helps them. But, when it happens over and over again several times a day every trading day of the year, those pennies add up.
Don't those pennies ultimately come out of your pocket? Yes, but only if you give those pennies to these high-frequency traders, and only if you play their game.
See, these guys have holding periods frequently measured in minutes, if not mere seconds. What they're counting on, when you get right down to brass tacks, is that you longer-term traders and even you swing traders out there are going to flinch first. That is, they expect you to get nervous enough about getting out of a trade or missing a trade-entry that you'll pay a little more to get in, and take a little less to get out.
If you don't flinch, you don't lose.
Yes, the explanation probably oversimplifies things a little, but not much. You're only at a disadvantage if you actually decide to get into or out of a position much earlier than you intended to just because you didn't like the way things were looking in the very short run.
Folks, trust me when I say that having conviction and confidence is half the battle in this game. Also trust me when I say that the longer you can hold onto a position, the more money you can make. And no, opportunity-cost (the good trades you didn't get to enter because your capital was tied up elsewhere) is something that rarely matters in the end. When all is said and done, those guys are fighting for pennies. You and I are looking for dollars.
Point being, if you're a true long-termer - or even a swing trader - the high frequency trading thing shouldn't matter to you. Heck, in some ways it can even benefit you by providing liquidity when there isn't much for a particular stock.
If you want living proof that you can make very good money by not short-term trading but instead by buying and holding as long as you can possibly stand to do so, you only have to look at the performance of the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity service. I'd guesstimate that the SCN EO's average holding period is on the order of several weeks, and those guys have just knocked it out of the park in terms of overall returns.
This data may be a little bit dated now, but as of March 26th, since the beginning of the year, the EO's cumulative pick return on closed out ideas was 133%, and yes, that included the losers. Sure, some of those ideas that were closed out for a profit this year were ideas actually opened last year. But, it's not bad, all things considered. Even if you just took the ideas they've added since the beginning of the year that have already been closed out, the cumulative return is 46% .... and that doesn't even include the trades that are still open. If my math is correct, the sum total return of those nine open positions is a stunning 110%.
Guys, that's the kind of returns most hedge funds can't produce on a regular basis. The really incredible part? Most all of those trades were held for several weeks, if not months. The shortest holding periods are still several days, and those are usually hedges that were only intended to be shorter-term trades from the onset.
If you're having a tough time letting your trades run and instead are falling into the traps set by the high-frequency traders, I strongly recommend becoming a member of the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity service, if for no other reason than to learn about how the market really works. You can even still get the free two-week trial. Just go here, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/
Portfolio Update
Yes, the market made a pretty impressive advance today, crossing above some key lines, and dropping hints of a breakout move. Gotta be honest though... I don't know how much of that we can attribute to true bullishness and how much of that we have to chalk up to Monday being the end of the quarter. Funny things happen at the end of the calendar quarter. Let's check in again tomorrow to see how things are shaking out.
In the meantime, how about we celebrate what was a market-beating day for all but one of our six open positions? Silicon Image (SIMG) was up 1.9%, PICO Holdings (PICO) was up 2.0%, Genesco (GCO) was up about 1.0%, Frontier Communications (FTR) advanced 1.4%, and Cooper Cos. (COO) soared 3.8%. The weakest link was Astec (ASTE), as it was "only" up 0.8%... right in line with the market's performance. I'll take it.
Not that we really needed it, but for most of our trades today's bullish jolt looks like it's going to be a real shot in the arm and get their engines revving again. That was something Astec needed, and soon. Ditto for Silicon Image. This is where we are.
The only stop I want to raise today is for Frontier Communications. Let's draw our mental line in the sand at $5.40. Once the dust settles for everything else, I suspect we'll be raising our stops on a few other holdings too.
There's still not been any news from our six stocks. The only item of real interest today was RW Baird's reiteration that Cooper Companies was still a "top idea". Great, though we already knew that a month ago.
Check back tomorrow, as we'll know the market's true colors then. For now, just think about what I said regarding the Elite Opportunity service. They can really help you squeeze big bucks out of the market, and you won't have to stare at your computer screen all day to do it. Here's how, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/