Yes, Standard & Poor's finally gave us the missing Q3 earnings information we've been impatiently waiting on. We'll work our way through it in a second. There's something far more important we've got to take care of first ... we have to update our look at the recent trade on Manitex International (MNTX). Let's just say I've never been so glad to be wrong. Takin' Care of Business If you're tired of hearing me tell you about it, then I can only assume it's because you didn't take our advice and buy Manitex International back on August 8th when it was trading at $11.10 per share. Anybody who did step into it then seems more than happy to look at all the facets of the 20% gain (a little more, actually) we've reaped since then. I don't come here to pat myself on the back though. I'm bringing it up now because there's some specific action that needs to be taken with MNTX today if you're in a position. You may recall my assumption from yesterday was that we'd see Manitex shares peel back a little after such a red hot runup. This dip would also be an entry opportunity for anybody who didn't wade in back in August. Well, I was wrong. Manitex International shares continued to soar today, gaining more than one point - almost 9% - to reach the $13.60-ish area... well above the $12.00 line that was such a big deal for so long. Sorry if you were hoping to step in on a lull today, but just for the record, we actually told you about this small cap a while back, and it looked very buyable then. So now what? At this point, if you aren't in a trade there's not much point in trying to get in now, even if we get a decent pullback (which we probably will). If you are in a position already, this is a situation where you don't necessarily want to get off of a rocket that's still rising, but you also want to be aware of the reality that this thing could stop and turn on a dime. To balance the risk and reward here, the best trading move is the application of a stop-loss order, which simply sells the stock "when and if" a certain price level under the current value is hit. That way you continue to capture any additional upside, but will still get out quickly if things get a little too stressed. Thing is, I can't tell you what that number should be for you; only you know your risk-tolerances that well. I can tell you, however, for our newsletter's purposes we're using the $13.00 level as a mental line in the sand. We're still thinking $15.00 could be met before it's all said and done though. Now, as good as the Manitex International pick was for subscribers of the free SmallCap Network newsletter (the one you're reading right now), neither Manitex nor the 20% gain on Northwest Pipe (NWPX) a few weeks ago nor several other profitable trades we've put on your plate lately have been as big as the picks the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity has been giving its subscribers. Adept Technology (ADEP) was only suggested in mid-September, and it's up more than 60% right now. BioTelemetry (BEAT) is up more than 100% since mid-June. You get the idea. The SCN EO is hitting home runs - and even grand slams - on a regular basis. If you're not a subscriber, you're not getting all you can get out of the market. Here's your ticket to a two-week test drive. Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/ Q3 Earnings: Is the Glass Half Full, or Half Empty? Whether or not third quarter earnings are better or worse than they should be is a matter of opinion. The good news: When we looked at the earliest numbers a few days ago, we were startled by how the S&P 500's Q3 earnings forecast was dialed down from an initial guess of $26.84 to $26.62 (versus $24.00 a year ago). That outlook was based on only 27 companies' reports, however, which isn't enough of a sample size to draw any conclusions. Now we've got third quarter numbers from 99 of the S&P 500's stocks, and the earnings projection has been pushed back up to $26.72. The bad news: We're seeing way too many misses, and way too few beats, compared to the historical norms. As is stands right now, less than 60% (58 of the 99) of the S&P's stocks have topped their earnings estimates, versus the norm of around 67%. At the other end of the spectrum, 26% (26 of the 99) have missed their earnings estimates, compared to a more typical rate around 15%. The forecasts through 2014 have been reeled in as well. While 99 companies is only about one-fifth of 500 companies, that's still a pretty good-sized group, and may be a good reflection of what's going on in the bigger picture. As it stands right now, the S&P 500 is trading at a trailing P/E of 14.81 (counting Q3's estimate), and a forward-looking P/E of 17.09. The trailing P/E is close enough to historic norms, but the forward-looking one of 17.09 is pushing limits, you know? It's also worth noting how earnings are expected to grow, on a year-over-year basis, 15.4% over the course of the next four quarters. That would be phenomenal growth, but as I've said to you guys a few times in recent newsletters, I just don't see how the economy is going to support that kind of expansion, especially when sales growth has been and is expected to be quite anemic. I'll have a more detailed (read "sector level") look at third quarter earnings next week. We just wanted to get the overarching data in print for you before closing out this week. Stocks Sending a Mixed Message Too That's day-two of the post-deal rally. Looks like my "buy the rumor, sell the news" theory is holding less and less water. But, I'm still not willing to completely abandon the idea, for one big reason - I'm concerned about the way the VIX reached a much lower low (almost kissing its lower Bollinger band) and then snapped back, almost pushing up and off the lower band line. Today was also an option expiration day, which may have been unduly pushing the VIX around. But, I think the bigger force on the VIX today was simply that buying interest is already getting a little shaky, and the profit-takers have their finger on the sell button. On the flipside, today's buying volume was solid. Honestly, I think the smart thing to do here is (1) not worry about any of it over the weekend, and (2) check back on Monday to see what kind of mood the market's in then. We're still feeding off political euphoria right now, but that should dissipate this weekend. At the very least we'd like to see a slight dip from stocks before deciding things are bullish, even if we're at the beginning of a big uptrend. We'll handicap things again early next week.