Did everybody enjoy yesterday's decimation? Geez. I've just got one word to say about the last seven trading days.... ugh. Actually I'm not even sure 'ugh' is a word, but it's still a fitting description.
Anyway, as my brilliant teaser headline (and tribute to Eddie Cochran) suggested, I do have a cure for the market's summertime blues. You just have to go overseas to find it because - in simplest terms - the U.S. market is just too much of a mess right now to bother with.
That's right, we're going back to China, where the fraud fears are now overdone yet the stocks are still oversold.
Just to call a spade a spade, it would be unrealistic to say all of China's sham stocks have been uncovered; I'm sure there are still some out there. By the EXACT same token though, the Chinese stock-bashing party from a few months ago threw some very compelling babies out with the bathwater. The one I've got in mind boasts a plausible trailing P/E of 4.5, and a forward-looking P/E of 3.6. It doesn't get much better than that no matter where in the world you are.
The pick is Lihua International (LIWA)... a copper wire and cable manufacturer serving a market that's on pace to consume 10% to 12% more copper this year than it did last year. In fact, some of the pros think copper prices could hit all-time highs on China's swelling industrial demand.
And Lihua is right in the middle of all of it.
Did that get your attention? I thought it might. Hang on though... the chart's going to seal the deal (below).
Under the Microscope
Lihua International is one of those old-school companies that increases share value by increasing sales and increasing profits. Yeah, it's a rarity in this day and age, but it does happen every once in a while.
The nearby chart tells the tale, and does so in U.S. dollars - four straight improvements, with more of the same expected for the remainder of the year.
Here's a similar look at revenues and net income.
And just to verify the underlying demand (and therefore the reported numbers) for Lihua are legit, check out the chart of copper imports for China over the last couple of years; the copper output looks about the same - just higher on an absolute level. They both jive pretty well with Lihua International's reported numbers. If it's a fraud, it's the farthest-reaching one I've ever seen.
What's interesting about Lihua and copper, yet no other metal, is that it really hasn't been persistently sensitive to last quarter's hawkish attitude from China's financial overseers.
Oh, it took a big hit, falling from more than $10,000/ton in early February to a low under $8600/ton by mid-May. It was a very short-lived dip though, with prices already back near $10,000 despite the persistence of China's tightening. Consider it a testament to the metal's true demand.
I'll wrap up this section with a simple point - LIWA is way more attractive than any other comparable U.S.-based company. Period.
Now's the Time
I said above the chart of Lihua would likely seal the deal and prompt a trade. That wasn't me just blowing smoke up you-know-what ... LIWA looks like it's finishing up a bullish pivot and ready to rally.
First and foremost, check out Monday's bar. We saw a deep low of $5.26 (made on high volume) in the shadow of what was already a pretty big selloff, but we also saw a pretty nice rebound to $6.02 by that day's close. That's the first hint of a capitulation.
The second hint came on Tuesday with just the raw bullishness this stock managed to muster. While volume wasn't huge compared to Monday's, it was still quite a wave of buyers in the grand scheme of things.
And if that doesn't do it for you, then maybe this will... we're very likely to add LIWA as an official 'featured stock' of the SCN site within a couple of weeks, as it looks like some things are really coming together for the company now. The market's also starting to realize the 50% drubbing since the beginning of the year didn't make much sense either. So, here's your chance to get in early before the rest of the crowd drives it higher.
Be sure to check the site early and often for the latest developments/perspective on Lihua. I've got a feeling there's going to be a lot to talk about here.