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VOLUME 07 : ISSUE 82
Market
Gets Rocked. Now What Do We Do?
Ouch!
It
never ceases to amaze me just how quickly the tide can turn. Last week
was one of the best we've seen in a long time....and much needed. Then
on Monday and Tuesday of this week, those gains were basically chopped
in half. Don't worry though - now that it's all said and done, I've got
some unbiased perspective I feel could help all of us navigate the rest
of this week. In fact, I think we're going to need some sort of
roadmap to stave of any emotional reaction to whatever happens next.
To
make it easy for all of us, I've broken things down into the most common
questions we've been getting the last couple of days. Let's just dig in.
Question
#1. Is today's (Tuesday's) huge pullback a fluke, or is this something
I really need to worry about?
A.
Can the answer to both questions be 'no'? Despite the rationale most of
the media will provide for why the market does anything, sometimes stocks
do something unexpected for no other reason than just because things were
ripe for that to happen. The NASDAQ Composite gained 2.2% last week, and
about 2.8% on Thursday and Friday of the prior week. Any 5% move compacted
into a 7 trading-day window is a tough act to follow. So, this ugly week
(so far) shouldn't be a complete shock....though a 2.2% dip in one day
is a tad extreme.
Should
we be worried about it? At the risk of sounding coy, we should always
be generally worried about it. I personally don't see it as a reason
to sound the alarm just yet though. Another day of the same, and then I
might be much more motivated to throw in the towel. Needless to say, this
mentality makes Wednesday a critical day - the bulls need some help soon.
Question
#2. It just seems like things were so bad a little over a month ago, and
now they get bad again. How much lower could we go?
A.
Though I tend to do it more than a little bit, there's a certain inherent
danger in looking at previous chart scenarios and comparing them to the
current one. Nothing is ever truly apples to apples. However, I
think I can provide some perspective for you.
The
normal, healthy correction in a bull market is said to be a 10% decline
from a peak to a bottom. The S&P 500's peak of 1555 in July and low
of 1370 two weeks ago was a span of 11.9%...sufficient to get 'it' all
out of its system. The debacle from late February to mid-March of this
year was a 6.6% slide, while the index slid a total of 8.0% lower in May
of last year. In September of 2005, the SPX fell only 6% before rebounding.
So, if the past is any indication, we don't really owe any more
than we've already given up.
Question
#3. A few weeks ago you were talking about several
bullish signs. Are those still valid at this point?
A.
Yeah, mostly. The thing about most of them (I looked at the ISE Sentiment
Index, the VIX, new NYSE highs and lows) is that most of them aren't
laser precise in terms of timing. The VIX and ISE indices did a pretty
decent job - great, actually - of telling us the long-tailed bottom
from two Thursdays ago was a good entry point, even if we've back-tracked
some this week. Both are looking a little less bullish now, but they did
their job then. And, we'll use them again in the future.
The
new NYSE low thing was a once-per-several-months occurrence, so I didn't
expect it to to say which day was the actual pivot. That signal is still
very valid, and will be even if the market keeps sinking over the
next few days.
To
view the latest updated chart of all three, click
here. (If the new window doesn't blow it up to full-size, move your
mouse cursor over the image and then click the 'enlarge' button that shows
up at the bottom right. Some web browsers may show the full-size version
automatically though.)
Question
#4. I know nobody has a crystal ball and things could go either way, but
what are the levels I should be watching at this point?
A.
Great
question. We'll use the S&P 500 as our proxy, but the same theory applies
to all the indices. Our ultimate line in the sand is the 50 day moving
average. It's at 1491 right now (purple, on our nearby chart), versus the
S&P 500's close of 1432 on Tuesday. I think a move about it will mean
any lingering vulnerability has been eliminated. As for a floor, I'm drawing
mine at 1374. That's where a handful of previous lows as well as some long-term
support lines are converging (blue). A move under that level may be a sign
of bigger problems to come.
Question
#5. Tuesday's consumer confidence news and Fed meeting minutes are responsible
for the selloff. What are your thoughts on both?
A.
We actually blogged our take on both issues, so I'll just refer you back
to the blog entries rather than rehash them here. But, to give you a little
teaser.....the plunge in the consumer confidence level is more likely
to be bullish than bearish, while the official Fed meeting minutes doesn't
mean a thing in my book. Click
here to go to the blog page.
By
the way, though I doubt they want to, I have to believe at this point the
Fed is going to do something in September to salvage what's left of the
credit/housing market. I don't want to play the prediction game - that's
too dangerous. But, they're caught between a rock and a hard place.
Last
Word
It's
do or die time. Be sure to check the blog today, as I plan on narrating
how I see things taking shape.
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Titan
Looking at NASDAQ Listing
Frankly,
I'm not a bit surprised. Moreover, I think this could pretty much wipe
up any lingering credibility issues. What I'm talking about is Titan Global
Holdings (OTCBB: TTGL).
It's currently a bulletin board stock, but plans on applying to trade as
a NASDAQ-listed stock by the end of September.
The
end result of such a fortunate move is simple....better visibility, credibility,
liquidity, etc. You know - all the things you want from your stocks.
It's
not a sealed seal yet, though I don't believe Titan would bother applying
if they didn't think they were going to win listing approval.
For
the full story, click
here.
BioCurex
Is (Almost) Making Me A Believer
I
know I keep coming back to this name, but, it is what it is. And what it
is right now - as far as BioCurex (OTCBB:
BOCX) is concerned - seems to be pretty good.
After
establishing a base around 46 cents in late July and early August, we've
seen a persistent push....a push big enough to get the stock up to its
current level of 62 cents (a 35% move, by the way). The volume behind the
gain has been pretty respectable too. And, the last of the main moving
average lines I watch, which is the 200 day line in this case, has now
been surpassed.
Yet
there's no news to support the effort? Well, I suspect there's some news
brewing - we just haven't heard it yet. Things like this rarely happen
out of nowhere. I feel somebody knows something about something, and at
least feels good enough about it to put a few bucks on the table. If that
is indeed the case, I think we all at least owe it to ourselves to pay
attention....just in case any rumor becomes true.
That
being said, I'm not completely behind this chart's potential just yet.
BOCX has handed over a couple of fake-outs in recent months, and I'm not
going to take the bait earlier than I have to. However, I will point out
this is one of the most promising moves I've seen in months.
Aggressive
speculators may already be in a position. As for anyone a little more skeptical
(which is myself at this point), I think a close above last week's and
today's high of 65 cents could really wipe away some of the perceived risk.
Either way, I think it's well worth watching.
Click
here for the chart.
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