Howdy folks. How's everybody doing? Well, true to its recent form, the market continues to do its best to vex as many people as possible as much as possible. It (and the S&P 500 in particular) literally couldn't be any more on the fence than it was most of the day today. As tough as it is to chill out and let stocks do their thing while they figure out what they want to do in the grand scheme of things, the right thing to do right now is nothing... except wait for one side or the other to tip its hand. Let's just start the discussion there today, beginning with a look at the S&P 500's daily chart. Read 'em and weep. The bulls weren't able to put any real pressure on the 20-day moving average - and also a key horizontal ceiling - at 2077, but the bulls didn't pose any real threat to the 50-day moving average line (purple) at 2054. Today's close was basically right in the middle of those two lines in the sand, and more or less in line with Wednesday's close. The VIX is equally stuck between a rock and a hard place. The NASDAQ Composite looks about the same at first glance, though there is one stark (but so far underappreciated) difference between it and the S&P 500. The NASDAQ is already below its 200-day moving average line (green) at 4828. That means the NASDAQ has more meaningful ceilings above it than floors below it. If it was an either/or situation, this is the one the bulls would prefer not to see. See, the NASDAQ tends to lead the rest of the market. If it's already in a fair amount of trouble, it's easier for the rest of the market to follow that same path. And yet, there are still plenty of ways both indices could wiggle their way out of trouble before taking any major hits. That being said... ... I've been thinking about this for a while, and though I'm not 100% convinced this is the way it's all going to pan out, my gut tells me this summer is going to be weak to bearish. Thing is, I couldn't be happier about it. I know as part of the financial media I'm supposed to always cheer stocks on and suggest there's never a bad time to buy. That's just a party line we have never and will never parrot though. There are bad times to buy stocks, and though we're not necessarily calling for a bear market, we increasingly expect the next few weeks to burn off some of this valuation froth. That's a good thing though, as it will set up the usual fourth quarter rally and bring valuations back to palatable levels. The thing is, I kind of think traders are already flagging summertime weakness anyway, perhaps without even knowing it. We've talked about this before but it bears repeating today just because today's action was so telling. How so? Today's biggest winners were once again telecom, staples, and utilities.... all defensive sectors you'd want if things got a little dicey for stocks or the economy. At the other end of the performance spectrum today were sectors like healthcare, industrials, materials, and technology... groups that would be best left avoided when headwinds are brewing. Here's the updated sector performance chart. It confirms this isn't the first time today's leaders and today's laggards have led and lagged. Have traders already confirmed they're not only expecting weakness, but planning for it? That's kind of what this chart says. We've not yet passed the proverbial point of no return. It's pretty clear where it is, however. It's also pretty clear just how far the market might tumble if stocks should reach that threshold. If you want to know where those entry and exit points are for any bearish trades though, well, that's the Elite Opportunity's territory. Not only do I not want to step on John Monroe's toes, I'd be the first to say he's better equipped to talk about those kinds of things - in real time - than we are here at the end-of-day newsletter. The EO is the way to go if the current market situation has you spooked. Here's how to add that weapon to your arsenal. Or, simply cut and paste this link into your web browser: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/ Oil Still Plentiful The only other thing we want to look at today is an updated version of the oil supply/demand chart we've been studying for a while... not because there was any major change this week, but because we've been keeping tabs on it for a while, waiting to see some clear evidence that the oil supply was finally being crimped in a big way. It isn't. Total crude stock levels fell last week, but that's not saying much considering they'd reached record-breaking higher the week before. I still get the feeling inputs and imports are being curbed, and capacity utilization is broadly creeping lower. I still don't see anything that's game-changing on the chart though. All the same, with the dollar in a downtrend, crude prices continue to edge a little higher. But, the greenback can't do it all by itself. Sit tight. We'll get some much needed clarity soon. By the way, New Global Energy (NGEY) brought in a proverbial ringer today to help get the company's budding line of moringa products off the ground. James Brumley has all the details.