Welcome to the weekend, friends and fellow traders. Well, trading may have ended the week on a quiet note, but let's not overlook the fact that stocks still ended the week in the red. That's the second losing week in the last three. Worse, most of the indices ended the session putting pretty strong pressure on some key technical support levels. And let's not forget stocks are sitting on this fence heading into next week's official beginning of Q1 earnings season. Oy vey. Anyway, we'll look at how things are taking shape for the market below, as we usually do. We've also got just a couple of other charts to look at today, but there's not a lot of discussion we need to have with them. As they say, a picture is worth a thousand words. Let's just start with the market though. The Headwind is Getting Stiffer If you look closely at the chart of the S&P 500 below (you may have to squint to see it), the index ended the session parked right on top of the 20-day moving average line today. I'm a stickler, so the lack of close below that line in the sand isn't a red flag yet. But, between today's failed rebound effort and the fact that the index closed down for the week - and is now under the rising support line that did most of the bullish work since February - there are understandable reasons for doubt. The VIX looks like it's making good on that bowl-shaped or U-shaped turnaround too, although the VIX still has some important ceilings above... just like there's a ton of support forming for the S&P 500 around 2000 (1994 to 2014). The daily chart of the NASDAQ Composite doesn't look all that different. It broke back under its 200-day moving average line (green) at 4855 today, logging a second straight day of lower highs. The composite is still above its 20-day moving average line, which more or less lines up with a key straight-line support level (dashed). Either way, the bears are putting some serous pressure on that floor. Like the S&P 500, there's a thick layer of technical support around 4815 for the NASDAQ. There's another modest floor taking shape under that area, around 4700. Below that though, there's nothing. This is the long way of saying the smart-money thing to do right now is just keep on chillin'. We'll have something worth trading soon enough. Here's the thing... while the bulk of our focus has been and will continue to be on the charts, that may not be the most important factor right now. I mentioned something along these lines a few days ago, but I thought John Monroe - as he so often does - put things in a brilliant perspective today when he explained: "The financial media has no clue. Yesterday, the headlines suggested the markets were quickly moving into a risk off mentality, and today the headlines suggest completely the opposite. It's this type of extremely lagging rhetoric that's important for investors and traders to ignore. The truth is, until some sort of fundamental shoe starts to drop, stocks will have every right to move higher. I mean that's what they've done for seven years, right? The bottom line is it's tough to crack a bull market until something fundamentally glaring starts to surface. Sure, the markets could sell off in fairly dramatic fashion very soon, but it's likely not going to be the type of selloff that investors remember from back in 2000, 2001 and then again in 2008. At this point, all we've got is some extremely high relative strength and a confirmed sell signal on the S&P 500. However, the confirmed sell signal needs to follow through, because if the S&P 500 breaches (number removed by editor) to the upside, you can forget about a market reversal until at least (number removed by editor) on the NASDAQ Composite.... ...With respect to equities, that's where we stand right now. There's definitely some technical context to suggest stocks can sell off now, but there's nothing on the fundamental front suggesting a complete market meltdown. If anything, the markets are continuing to suggest the possibility of ..." There's more, obviously, but I can't give it all away. John's point is well made though. That is, while we can normally glean a pretty good feel for the market's undertow based on the charts alone, this is one of those times (again) it's more about keeping your finger on the pulse of the market's true sentiment. I wish we had the time and tools to do that here in the free newsletter you're reading right now, but that's more the Elite Opportunity's domain, where the idea can be done justice. And yes, John's got some specific trading parameters to go along with all the possible market scenarios that will unfurl in the foreseeable future, whichever direction those winds may blow. Here's how you can put his knowledge and experience to work for you. Or, just cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/ Two Other Charts to Chew On Like I said, we're not going to have a drawn-out discussion of the charts you 're about to see. If you've been reading the SCN newsletter for any length of time at all then these will at least be familiar to you. I'm just going to inject a quick comment after each. First, you probably know oil prices surged on Thursday and Friday. Part (a small part) of that is a supply/demand dynamic, but a lot of that has to do with the falling U.S. dollar. That's what's charted below ... the U.S. Dollar Index, which clearly is in a strong downtrend. The index is getting awfully close to a key floor at 93.7, at which time the other floor at 93.3 comes into play. If the lower of those support line breaks, it could be - and should be - game-changing. This full-screen version really puts the current weakness in perspective. The other side of the oil coin right now is supply and consumption. Here's our updated chart of that data. Imports were reeled in a little bit, but there's not a lot on any other front I see that's truly helping with the supply glut. Finally, I want to point out that even though the broad market lost ground this week, some industries did well. Among them are biotechs and drug stocks, as well as several minerals and energy stocks. That's no surprise. What is a surprise are all the technology industries that made forward progress against a bearish tide. Computer systems, healthcare information names, electronics, and several internet services names made respectable gains this week. It's interesting, just because it may be an omen that we're moving back into a stock-pickers environment rather than an all-or-nothing environment. That'll be something we try to look at more closely in the coming week, on the hunt for a hot pocket of strength.