News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Time to Exit This Trade. Plus, Where's the Phantom Inventory?
/

February 2, 2024

/

PDT

Is everybody's Tuesday going well? I hope so. We've actually got a lot to go through today, but I'm not going to dive too deep into any of it - there's just not enough room or time. Maybe that's better for you guys anyway. Let's just get started with the bigger picture. Then we can get into the near-term market stuff. Time To Lock It In On LEDS First and foremost, if you haven't locked in at least some of your gains on SemiLEDS (LEDS), go ahead and do so as soon as you can. The stock's rallied 53% in just the past three days, which was a well-deserved gain, but not one that was built to last. Hopefully most of you took some action when we suggested LEDS was in play back on the 17th. Shares closed at $1.15 that day, though at the time were offering no real hint of a brewing upside. Of course, the best ones rarely give any hints of an impending rally. That's why we have to step in when things are quiet and wait for the rest of the market to get things going. LEDS was one of those names that merited patience. Sure enough, it was around $2.10 as of the last look today, up 85% since we featured the LED lighting maker in the newsletter. Just so there's no confusion, this isn't a long-term bearish call on the company. This is about a stock that has separated itself from reason. Those separations never last, however, and once the market realizes it's soared a little too much for its own good, I suspect LEDS is going to be reeled in. If you really like the idea as a long-term possibility (which we do), just buy it back after a dip. That being said... If you just don't have the ability to talk yourself into selling a stock that looks like it's just now started to get going, hedge your bet by selling half of it, and then continuing to hold the other half. If my memory serves me correctly, SemiLEDS is the fourth winner we've pointed out to you guys before a big breakout. Cadence Pharmaceuticals (CADX) took off shortly after we told you about it on March 6th, and by March 26th we were talking about locking in part of that 27% gain. We also mentioned J.C. Penney (JCP) was worth a swing back on April 9th when the stock was trading at $13.93. Now it's at $17.00, up 22%. We also suggested Taser (TASR) and ZBB Energy (ZBB) on the 10th. While ZBB hasn't gone anywhere, TASR shares have made some progress. And, let's not forget about 3D Systems (DDD), which was our "best of breed" pick stemming from our bullish call on the 3D printing industry, published back on March 25th. DDD shares are up 22% since then, rallying from $30.83 then to $37.55 as of today. Now, I don't point all of this out to you guys out to pat myself on the back. I'm pointing it out to let you know if you like the gains you're scoring by using this free version of the SmallCap Network newsletter, then you're going to LOVE the winners brought to you by the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity service. Or, if you don't like making more money, then you can continue to limit yourself to the occasional stock pick I can give you. Your call. Here's the deal. Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/ Phantom Inventory Still Nowhere To Be Found There wasn't a lot of stock-related or economic news I thought was all that important today, but I did have a comment to make to you about the housing market. I know we've been bullish on housing for a while, in conflict with a lot of doubt about the future of the real estate; a bunch of high-profile people are still saying the meteoric rise in home prices is all just a bubble that's about to be popped. Today's news bolsters our bullish argument, and weakens the 'bubble' theory. The news is, the Case-Shiller Index (of home prices) in 20 U.S. cities says the average price of a home as of February of 2013 was 9.3% higher than it was in February of 2012. The increase jives perfectly with the growth trend in new and existing home sales that's been in place since early 2011. And if you don't think housing is red hot, chew on this ...a builder out in California has been forced to hold a lottery to control the demand for condos its building. When buyers are fighting or gaming for a property, housing is just fine. The most-deeply-entrenched nay-sayers are still playing the "phantom inventory" card, though at this point, that sign of desperation could almost be a contrarian (bullish) signal in itself. If there was really a ton of so-called phantom inventory houses that are on the verge of being injected into the real estate market, we would have seen it by now. Available inventory of existing houses - which makes up about 90% of the residential real estate market - is at lows not seen well before the real estate bubble began to inflate. Yet, home prices are quite strong, and rising. If anybody was sitting on a house they wanted to sell, and were just waiting for the right market and the right price, well, we're in that kind of market right now. The houses just aren't showing up, hence the need for crowd control measures like lotteries. To be clear, I'm not telling you thing are as strong as they were before the mortgage loan crisis killed the real estate market in 2008. But, they're on the mend, and it's not just a blip. No Biggie Amazingly enough, the market's what I've got the least to say about. Just so there's no confusion, while I have my doubts about there being any more upside in store for stocks after the 3.6% pop from the low in mid-April, from an unbiased, technical point of view, there is room for more upside. Not a lot more, but a little more. What I'm keying in on here is the way the upper Bollinger band has started to move up and away from where the S&P 500 is right now. That upper band line has been - and likely still is - the market's "too far" level that it needs to reach to jump-start pullbacks. As long as the index never makes any major one-day jumps, it may never end up running into that technical ceiling. (That's a bullish thing, in case you were wondering.) Oh, and the same technical situation applies to all the other major indices. Adding to the bullish case here is the fact that the S&P 500 actually managed to close above its recent peak of 1597.35 by ending the session at 1597.57. So, maybe the bulls aren't as skittish as I suggested they may be with yesterday's newsletter. Today's strong volume says the move is rather well supported, with lots of participation. The most likely scenario based SOLELY on what we see with the charts of the SPX is a revisit of the upper trend line, currently at 1624 on this weekly chart. The daily chart's upper Bollinger band could be there as well by the time the S&P 500 could actually retest it. My problem with that theory is knowing the whole "sell in May" thing is based on real tendencies. Hang on ... we'll be getting answers soon enough.