We hope everybody's Thursday is going well. The market sure made things interesting today, though it's made things interesting every day for the last month, so today's action is nothing new.
I do have some thoughts on where today's action leaves us (and the market), but honestly, I'm far more interested in how traders are going to respond to today's action come tomorrow. The S&P 500 as well as the NASDAQ are approaching recent highs because of today's surge, which would normally be bullish. But, I've got a nagging feeling this is all just a setup for another pullback; brushes with prior peak levels have a funny way of doing that. We'll just have to see. Check back tomorrow, when we expect to have some clarity.
For today we wanted to take some time to recap one of the trades the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity closed out this afternoon. I really think there's a lot to be learned from how they chose, followed, and then took the position off the table to lock down a 16.7% in just a little over a month. Interested?
The pick was SAIC (SAI). It's an IT consulting/cybersecurity provider, and primarily serves the government market. The SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity suggested it back on March 20th (when the stock was trading at $12.80). This was the specific rationale:
"I have to admit, from a fundamental perspective, I've seen better companies, however, the two primary reasons we like SAIC's stock right now are very technical and speculative in nature. Let me explain... when it comes to any major government contractor, one huge contract win can be a significant game changer for any Company of SAIC's size. Modestly attractive fundamentals could become highly attractive in the blink of an eye. The Company's fairly modest $4.5B market cap provides plenty of room for growth assuming they deliver on the corporate development front. Now that the management has some experience running itself as a public company, I suspect they should be better now at managing the Street's expectations. Secondly, this is the one stock that has moved very nicely since last week's cyber security summit when all of the others have pretty much done nothing. Sometimes, it's just as important to read between the lines as it is to read the lines."
On the surface, they're just words. They're also words that nobody else was saying at the time - the rationale is nothing like the typical black-and-white analyst bull@#$% Wall Streeters love to spout off. That's not a bad thing though. In fact, it's a good thing, since most analysts don't really get how the stock market works in the real world. The typical analyst just knows accounting statements and the latest batch of economic data. The guys at the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity - as they described - read between the lines, and that savvy paid off big-time.
Fast forward to March 27th, which was the day after SAIC reported its quarterly numbers. John Monroe of the SCN EO wrote:
"When we suggested owning shares of SAIC, Inc. (SAI) a week ago today, I received some emails from some of our Members basically telling me we were crazy and that SAI was a short and not a buy. Although I respect and understand we've got some pretty savvy investors and traders who are Members here at SCN EO, I'm a big believer longer-term charts are much easier to decipher and dissect than short-term charts. In other words, I'll listen to what a monthly chart is telling me much more than what a daily chart is telling me and it appear SAI was no exception. The premise for the idea, from a technical perspective, was based on a long-term reversal confirmation rather than what the stock had been doing on a short-term basis."
Again, they're just words, but they demonstrate the importance of studying long-term technical trends as well as fundamentals as well as those external realities (the ones most everyone else ignores) when picking a stock. Again, the fact that the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity's members just locked down a 17% gain in less than five weeks underscores that this is the right approach. SAIC knocked its estimates out of the park, AND the chart was in a position and ready to rally.
The next update on the SAI pick came on April 16th:
"SAIC, Inc. (SAI) has provided us with some nice gains since adding it to our open list less than a month ago. We're not going to let our gains in the idea get away from us though in the event the markets do rollover, so we'll maintain our target of $14.86 in the idea but we're going to move up our stop loss to a very tight $13.69. Should SAI trade down to $13.69, we'll lock in our profits and wait for a potential better re-entry."
That's just prudent trade-management.
Now fast-forward to today's newsletter, letting us know it was time to lock it in and head for the sidelines:
"We want to bring to your attention our current open idea in SAIC, Inc. (SAI) hit our target price of $14.86 this morning, so we're going to go ahead take the profits and close out the idea for now ....We're going to go ahead a lock in just over a 16% gain in a little over a month, which isn't too shabby at all. We'll take it and so should you. As you can see in this weekly chart here [not actually shown here in the newsletter you're reading], the stock has finally retraced 5/8 of its complete move from its 2011 high to its 2012 low. I suspect it's going to meet some resistance around this 5/8 retracement level and potentially provide a deep enough pullback for us to get back into the idea should we choose to. We'll continue to keep an eye on the idea for a potential re-entry at some point down the road. It's all going to depend on the current market environment at the time."
So there you go - the anatomy of a great trade, and some insight into how holistically the guys over at the SCN EO think. It's also the way you should be thinking when you pick stocks, although I know it's easier said than done. That's the benefit of having the SCN EO in your corner ... they can keep tabs on the bigger picture for you. Unlike most of the gurus and pundits you hear from on TV, the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity knows nothing is easy or simple when it comes to stocks. That's what makes it such a unique service.
With all of that being said, I still don't think I did the folks at Elite Opportunity justice; there's just nothing like experiencing this kind of insight in real time. The cool part is, you can get two weeks' worth of that experience for free. The SCN EO still has that free two-week, no-obligation offer on the table. I suggest you give the service a test drive before the next SAIC-like trade passes you by. Learn more about it here. Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/