News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Tuesday is D-Day For the Market. Plus, a New Pick.
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Howdy, fellow traders and market fanatics. Did we all have a good weekend, which is to say, did we all survive whatever inclement weather was thrown our way? Looks like things weren't as dramatic on the weather front as The Weather Channel was suggesting they would be. That's a good thing. And better still, it looks like our friends on the West Coast finally got some much-needed precipitation. Whatever the case, trading is back in full swing today, so we are too. We've even got a new stock pick to prove it. Of course - and as always - we've got an updated look at the market for you in today's newsletter. Let's just say stocks confirmed our suspicions with today's action, or lack thereof. Let's start with the new pick. We Have Too Much Junk, & This Company Loves It Actually, before we tell you what the newest addition to the SmallCap Network hypothetical portfolio is, there's another name I wanted to mention to you that I was reminded of when the California drought crisis went from bad to worse a few days ago... Cadiz (CDZI). Simply put, Cadiz is working on a project that could supply California with completely renewable groundwater. That's not all the company does, but it's the most important project the organization is working on right now. I'll confess I'm not an expert on the company; though I've been watching the company for years, I've only been following it at arm's length. It's a true "problem solver" though, so for those of you who like to take a swing on those kinds of ideas, it may be worth doing a little due diligence of your own. Cadiz isn't the name I wanted to make an officially unofficial pick today, however. The company I want to add to our current open trades on BlackBerry (BBRY) and Silicon Image (SIMG) is [insert drum roll here] CubeSmart (CUBE). For those who aren't familiar with it, CubeSmart is technically a REIT that specializes in personal storage facilities. It's a description that doesn't do the company justice, however. In addition to its regular rent-a-locker business, CubeSmart also performs specialty services like vehicle storage and military personnel storage. Think of it as the Hilton of storage units. Now, truth be told, there's nothing particularly show-stopping about the company or its business - renting storage space isn't rocket science, nor is it stunningly lucrative. It's a steady and reliably profitable business to be in, however. CUBE has ramped up annual revenue every year since 2010, and 2014 isn't expected to be any different with a sales-growth forecast of 9.0%. Earnings have behaved similarly, on pace to grow 21% for 2013, and projected to grow 13% this year. It's also cranked up its dividend payout quite nicely during that time, from 3 cents per quarter in 2010 to 11 cents per quarter now... paid like clockwork. No, it's not a breakthrough cure for cancer, but it's something pretty concrete, and something a little safer for our usually-aggressive portfolio. With all of that being said, the back-story is only half the reason I'm digging CUBE right now. The other half of the reason we're recommending CubeSmart is (and no surprise here) the chart. Take a look at the weekly chart of CUBE below. The stock got slammed in November following third quarter's earnings - the market got spooked a little bit. But, it only took a few days for those same investors to decide there was still more upside than downside with CubeSmart. The only thing the big pullback did was burn off an overbought condition and hit the "reset" button on the longer-term rally. And sure enough, CubeSmart shares are starting to perk up again. From where I set, getting in now gets us into a trade right in that sweet spot where the rebound is on relatively sure footing, but there's still some meat left on the bone. What I'm hoping for is a repeat of the reset we saw in late-2011, where the dip preceded a nice rally that lasted for a year and a half. That's it... just a straight-forward rebound play from a quality stock. It's nothing fancy, yet it's something I see with an upside of 30% (or maybe more) for those willing to stick with it for a while. And yes, we're entering this one with a long-term mentality. But what about the risky market environment we're in that could drag all stocks lower if things get ugly enough? Yeah, that's a possibility, but in many ways a REIT operates outside of the stock market's normal ripple effect, and it may be shielded from a market meltdown. And if not, we're drawing a line in the sand at $16.00. Let's place a mental stop there, just in case things do go south. There - now we have three whole stock picks for the SCN newsletter portfolio. We may even add a fourth one later this week. It's still not enough to round out a portfolio, however, you know? And, I doubt we'll have a ton more picks in the immediate future. You know who has ten open trades in their portfolio right now though? The SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity.... and ten is on the low end of their usual number of positions. I've said it before but I'll say it again now - if you need more trading ideas than you're getting, then the SCN EO is what you want! You can even get a free feel for how John Monroe and his team think, just by using your two-week test drive offer. Here's how, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEO/v1/ Decision Time Yes, the S&P 500 closed a little higher today, but I'd hardly call it a victory. Today's high of 1799.94 - let's just call it 1800 - pretty much bumped into the 20-day moving average line, and sure enough, the rally was halted. Heck, you could tell all day long that Monday's buyers were hesitant. Today's volume was the lowest it's been since the very beginning of the year, so most traders are still very unsure of the market's bullishness here. The VIX also stopped falling, right around the 15.0 area we were worried could become a floor again now that a couple of key moving averages are there. That's also working against the market. Folks, this IS the inflection point. If the S&P 500 can wiggle its way above the 20-day moving average line (which will be exactly at 1800 tomorrow), then the scales tip in favor of the bigger uptrend being renewed. If the S&P 500 stumbles at the 1800 level on Tuesday, that could open the selling floodgates again and send the market down like we saw in late January. If that happens, I don't think the 1740 level is going to hold up as a floor the second time around, letting us finally slip into full-blown correction mode. Were I a gambling man like I was in my early years, this is the point where I'd go ahead and buy an index put option or a leveraged bearish ETF and just keep it on a short leash. With a few more gray hairs on my head though - and a little less hair, for that matter - I think the smart move here is to wait for the market to prove something to me. There'll be plenty of opportunity left to tap once both sides of the table show their cards and the market responds accordingly, and I'm not kidding when I say it could happen as soon as tomorrow. We'll be in touch.