Dow
Jones
7864.23
-65.07
1:00
pm PST, February 7, 2003
NASDAQ
1282.46
-19.27
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S
& P 500
829.69
-8.46
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be removed, please click
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Russell
2000
358.78
-5.96
VOLUME
02: ISSUE 96
Watch
your P's (portfolios) and QQQ's
Once Desert Storm concluded in the
early 90's, the market began its exponential rise that lasted until March
2000. While it is doubtful a market of that kind will return anytime soon,
investors may want to keep a small toe in the market in the event that
pending economic or geopolitical situations release the market from its
range-bound malaise-one way or the other.
If you're looking for quick and cheap
tech stock exposure, or at least exposure to a possible tech market move
(up or down), consider the NASDAQ 100 Tracking Stock-known by euphemism
and symbol as the QQQ. As the most heavily traded of the genus known as
Exchange Traded Funds (ETF)--vehicles which fairly closely mirror the movement
of their underlying index or asset class-- the QQQ specifically reflects
the progress of the Nasdaq 100.
Big and Little'uns
An ETF is merely a kind of index
mutual fund, and while not actively managed, the weight of each stock is
tracked with the same representation as is found in the actual index. The
top three holdings in the QQQ are Microsoft, Intel and Cisco, representing
percentage weights of around 11%, 7.5% and 5% respectively. There are also
biotech, retail and healthcare constituents. In essence, if the shares
of a company are in the NASDAQ 100 index, they're also resident in the
QQQ.
There are more than 100 other ETF's
out there and they represent total assets of over $100 billion. New offerings
are being added monthly.
The good news, arguably, is that
from its peak of $120 in March 2000, the QQQ has vapored to its current
level of $24. For those who think the bottom is at hand, buying a small
position in the QQQ will give instant, liquid exposure-average daily volume
is 65 million shares-- to the market without the hassle or fees of a managed
mutual fund. The ETF can be traded as a single stock --as in commission
only-and, as noted, the market is extremely deep. Adjustments are made
as companies come and go, so there is a measure of management, but the
emotion is removed.
By definition, it is unlikely the QQQ will outperform the actual market/index.
But since even managed funds rarely outperform the index, a position in
the QQQ may make some sense for those wishing to bottom fish. And given
the substantial volumes, those investors tired of being violated by market
makers can rest easy.
Dropping your shorts
For others who think the end may
not be anywhere in sight yet, the QQQ's can be shorted-meaning sold and
then bought back at a (in theory) lower price. There are also options on
the QQQ for those with lots of fast money and the time to monitor their
positions. Since most of us don't have that kind of time, a straight purchase
(or short sale) of a small number of QQQ shares may well be enough of a
proxy should the market pop or drop.
There are, as I said, currently more
than 100 ETF's with various acronyms. SPDR's (Spiders) mirror the S&P
500, DIA's (Diamonds) represent the DOW, and there are even things called
iShares which can represent markets such as Japan's. Once a product comes
into focus on Wall Street, it seems to replicate with exuberant abandon.
Suffice it to say there's something for everyone and lots of information
available through either a Google search or a visit to www.amex.com.
Cheap and, hopefully, cheerful
Given that fees for managed mutual
funds can hit 3% annually, ETF's certainly make sense from a cost/benefit
perspective. These babies can be volatile though, as the QQQ ride over
the last 3 years has shown. They should probably be used as a tech market
proxy rather than an asset class. That means taking a small position-long
or short-that represents your market view. Or protects you from adversity.
TRADER TIP
The one truism is that over the next
few weeks or months, volatility will increase. The key to successful investing
is not getting locked into situations that, due to circumstances such as
low liquidity or wide spreads, can instantly destroy even a profitable
position should stocks gap. Review your positions and make sure that your
portfolio constituents trade widely and the trading spreads are tight.
If you tend to like market orders-we would prefer to use limits-make sure
that the stock has the depth necessary to ensure successful, timely execution
at your price.
Next week we'll look at limit versus
stop versus stop limit orders. There is a huge difference.
D I S C
L A I M E R :
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