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Stocks' Earnings Season Ends With Clear Winning & Losing Sectors
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

With earnings season pretty much in the books, we can now take a step back from the individual company reports and start to dissect some of the bigger picture details. Specifically, we want to break down each sector's 'beats' on the revenue as well as earnings fronts. The winners and losers may surprise you, but more importantly, may plant a seed for future decisions.  Following that analysis, we'll post our last earnings scoreboard update for the seasons. Things didn't end all that well.  After that we'll look at the 'best of' from the community. This week, MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR), IntegraMed America (INMD), TomoTherapy (TOMO), ZymoGenetics (ZGEN), and other trade-worthy names are sliced and diced by our contributors.    Q2's Hot and Cold Spots I know given the backdrop of Wednesday's implosion that I'm "supposed to" be talking about what it all means, why it happened, and where the market's going next because of it. I'm not going to though.  Why? Because, frankly, it was a move rooted far more in fear than in value, and to make long-term decisions when in the midst of a short-term frenzy (bullish or bearish) is a mistake.  I'm not going to say the pullback was an errant one, as we may well be headed into a short-term slaughter. Conversely, I'm not going deny the possibility of a full recovery here, as fear is often quickly replaced by greed. I'm simply saying, despite what the talking heads on TV would have you believe, nobody's got a level-headed handle on the market's true nature right now. Hysterics have blinded us. Until the veil is lifted, the right thing to do is let the chips fall where they may, and then respond... not the other way around.  In the meantime, we can add some analysis that will help you make good decisions once all the chips have landed.  Over the last month and a half or so, I've kept close tabs on the market's earnings results. Now that the season is all but over though, I think we can safely dive into the bigger-picture details of these results - how each sector did in terms of revenue and earnings.  Surprise surprise, technology is the hands-down winner. Whether you're comparing Q2's revenue, operating earnings, or GAAP earnings, more than 80% of the S&P 500's tech stocks topped each of those prior Q2's numbers... the best all around results.  The biggest disappointment came from telecom, though bear in mind there are only nine telecom names in the S&P 500 - it doesn't take much bad news to significantly impact the overall sector.  One of the more encouraging surprises was the strength from the consumer discretionary sector. While the media has been hyping up how weak consumer spending is, and how the lack of consumption will be the ultimate demise of the economy, the consumer discretionary (cyclical) stocks continue to rake it in. Odd.  On the flipside, one of the more discouraging surprises was tepidness from the financial stocks. They need to participate in any rally if it's to have longevity, but given their weak comparative results last quarter, how can we expect them to rally? This may remain the market's biggest challenge .... getting the financial sector fully back on board.  As for what we can 'do' with this information, first and foremost take it at face value.  Take technology for instance. I've been bullish on tech for a while; Q2's numbers confirm my optimism. If we are indeed headed into the double dip that was alleged to have started in the middle of the second quarter, nobody told the tech sector about it. (Cisco doesn't speak for the whole group.) In fact, tech names are one of the few groups that most of the experts tend to agree on as attractive holdings no matter what the economy holds in store.  Why? In some regards, technology has become a 'staple', particularly with corporations. Specifically, I'm looking for stocks in the tech sector that have a recurring or near-recurring revenue model.... things like software-as-a-service, database maintenance, tech support, and the like. Those businesses are at the heart of their clients' day-to-day operation, and their service can't just be 'unplugged' in an effort to save a few bucks.  Likewise, you should recognize that utilities and staples are still struggling. If you own any names in those sectors, odds are better than average they'll let you down.  No, one quarter doesn't make a trend. Then again, Q2's 'beat' results really aren't all that different than the prior quarter's, and probably won't be radically different than the third quarter's either. Just something to keep in mind as you rework your long-term holdings.  There are other ways to respond to these clues as well; we'll explore some of them in future editions.  Helping you get more out of the market, James Brumley Editor - Small Cap Network    Earnings Scoreboard This will be our last earnings scoreboard updates, since for all intents and purposes, earnings season is over. And, much like Q1's sequence, what started out quite bullishly deteriorated as time went on. Though there weren't many earnings announcements for the prior week, there were enough bad ones to further pull the overall beat/miss ratio well under norms.  The final score? It was a rattling 61.6% 'beats', and 29.1% 'misses'.... a virtual disaster by most earnings season standards. Yet incredibly, the market's total earnings rolled in better than expected. In case you're wondering how that happens, the companies that did top estimates did so by a far greater degree than the 'misses' fell short of estimates. Still, one would like to see a little more breadth of earnings success.  While it was less than desirable overall, there is one sliver lining behind this cloud - the big success from some of these companies underscores the fact that it's at least a stock-picker's market again. In other words, you can find companies that are doing well, and you can find rising stocks as a result. You're just not going to get much help from a rising market tide, because there isn't one (not one to speak of anyway).    From The Community  - Latest Commentary - Solutions For a Dead Market What happens when strong technicals and strong fundamentals line up? You get a solid pick like IntegraMed America, Inc. (NASDAQ:INMD). As James Brumley points out, the company's penchant for beating earnings estimates may mean an already-low projected P/E still underestimates the budding stock.  Will They Plunge or Take Off? NXTM, JGBO, TOMO TomoTherapy Incorporated (NASDAQ:TOMO) may be down, but it's certainly not out. In fact, the 'down' is an opportunity in Dennis Askew's eyes.... a low entry point for a company that's got a handful of cutting-edge cancer treatment technologies.  Have Your MEMC Electronic Materials Cake & Eat It Too Scott Brown over at the Dark Horse Hedge posted an interesting way of playing MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. (NYSE:WFR)... by owning the stock, and then by selling options against it. Technically, it's a short straddle, which will drive some income now and potentially allow the trader to scoop up more shares in the future at an attractive price.  Don't Fight the Tape - Looks at IMOS, PRGO, and CFW If you're looking for the next big thing, you may want to put Perrigo Company (NASDAQ:PRGO) on your watchlist. Though it's got one more hurdle to clear before getting the proverbial green light, the foundation that's being laid right now is primo. The string of recent earnings 'beats' is just gravy.  It's Quite a Day at the Racetrack: CYPB, MATK, NLST If there's any doubt as to the viability and growth prospects for Netlist, Inc. (NASDAQ:NLST) going forward, take a look at this overview of last quarter's numbers; the deal with Dell cements the opportunity in place. And, priced at less than half its 52-week high, NLST couldn't be much juicier. - Newest Picks -  International Business With Rino: Jason Okamoto is bullish on RINO International Corporation (Nasdaq:RINO).  Energy Is A Great Place To Have Your Money Right Now: Jessie Yim has taken a big stake in Evergreen Energy, Inc. (NYSE:EEE). Short Tri-Tech Holdings Inc.: Henry Fisher has placed a bet against Tri-Tech Holding, Inc. (Nasdaq:TRIT).  ZymoGenetics Got the Good Jeans: Christian Sanchez has already made good money by recently going long on ZymoGenetics, Inc. (Nasdaq:ZGEN).    We Value Your Feedback Got comments, questions or suggestions? 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