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VOLUME
05: ISSUE 63
Feature:
Superclick Gets Pounded - Opportunity Knocks?
On
July
26th, we noted that Superclick (OTCBB:
SPCK) shares appeared oversold. Over the next couple of weeks the
price firmed a bit, idled and then, a couple of days ago, selling resumed
and dropped the shares to below 50 cents--a price level not seen in well
over a year. Unless we're missing something, the selling appears both irrational
and overdone.
We aren't aware of any material reason
for the decline and, while annoying; there well could be a decent opportunity
for risk-oriented traders. Long-term holders also may well want to accumulate
some shares at these levels. We believe that when the company concludes
the Hotel Net acquisition, which we previously noted, the subsequent growth
of the its installed footprint by 40 percent and other benefits as a result
of that deal should be very positive for the shares.
Admittedly,
the chart looks awful. The shares broke through their .618 retracement
level at 57 cents and traded as low as 46 cents, Thursday. Interestingly,
that's the same level we initially bought Superclick to the readership
back in February 2004. The shares have traded over $1 three times since
that initial introduction. While we are not aware of any material reason
for the decline, this is the smallcap market. Both selling and buying frequently
tend to be overdone. As we mentioned in July, the deal for Hotel Net is
for 4.75 million shares and while there may have been some initial dilution
concerns by investors, the benefits of the acquisition, in our opinion,
outweigh this perceived negative.
When the Hotel Net deal is consummated,
hopefully soon, we are confident that the details and benefits of the combined
entity will impress investors. This feeling isn't based on any prior knowledge,
but on our confidence in management to do a deal that is in the best interest
of both the company and the shareholders.
Using that 46-cent level as a comparative,
investors will agree that the small company we Alerted the readership to
in February 2004 at that level has come a long way. Over the last 12 months,
revenues have exceeded $4 million. With SPCK's current market cap of around
$15 million--including the shares issued for Hotel Net-- there is likely
room for the shares to rise. Will it be volatile? Sure. Look at the chart.
There have been multiple opportunities to profitably trade the shares.
Superclick's large and quality partners
such as Verizon and Locatel, among others, have already delivered significant
business. As well, the company, through its own efforts has increased its
installed base exponentially in a very short period of time. We are aware
of no reason that this growth trend should not continue.
Cash is king.
I've received a couple of emails
from readers who appear concerned about SPCK's cash position. As usual,
Yahoo notes that the company has only $102,000 in cash. Wrong. Again. On
August 3rd Superclick did a private placement financing for $2.25 million
led by Chicago Ventures Partners. Here are the thoughts of Chicago Venture's
Managing Partner:
"We are pleased that Superclick
chose us to be its financial partner as it executes on its organic business
plan and integrates its new acquisition,'' said John M. Fife, Managing
Partner of Chicago Venture Partners, LP. ``As a private equity investor,
we look for portfolio partners that we believe have a sustainable business
and growth potential. We hope to continue to be a financial resource to
Superclick as further opportunities emerge.''
The balance of that release is here:
http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/050803/83260.html.
Could Superclick shares move lower?
Sure. As I said this is the smallcap market; risk is a given. Does all
the negativity seem overdone? In our opinion yes, since we can find no
material reason for the decline. We have to conclude that for risk-oriented
investors and long-term holders the current level offers opportunity; with
the caveat that the shares currently look technically challenged.
" No guts, no glory" seems an apt
epilogue to this discussion.
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