In
This Edition....
Market
Update: Short Term Ceiling in Place, Working on the Floor
Takin'
Care of Business - Trade Exits & Updates
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Short
Term Ceiling in Place, Working on the Floor
Did
you know despite all the gyrations we've seen over the last seven trading
days (counting today), the net change during that time is basically nil?
That's right... after surging to new multi-week highs two Mondays ago,
we've
basically gone nowhere since.
That's
not to say the last week and a half have been a waste though - quite
the contrary.
While
the market's not moved much (I'm using the S&P 500 as my proxy), some
important lines have been drawn that we can and should use as guideposts
for future trades.
The
big
one I'm seeing is horizontal resistance at 950. The index has tested
that ceiling three times over the last seven days, and failed to cross
it each time. Needless to say, that will be the key if the current uptrend
is to remain alive.
On
the flip side, I suggest you not get too pessimistic just yet. Today's
not a great day, but it hardly breaks the overall uptrend. In fact, the
S&P 500 could sink all the way back to the 20 day moving average line
at 915 and we'd still be in a bigger-picture uptrend.
That's
not a waver from my generally bearish, intermediate-term stance. It's simply
an acknowledgment that, technically, we really don't have a great
deal of evidence right now that favors the bears.
As
for what kinds of 'evidence' I'm looking for, I'll have to save that chat
for an edition that's not as loaded up as this one is. Hopefully we can
get to it before the end of the week (when we'll have more data to work
with).
Takin'
Care of Business
We
took care of a lot of trading business on Monday, so there's not a whole
lot for today. A handful of items need some attention though.
Raise
(or lower) the stops on...
Drugstore.com
Inc. (DSCM)
This
one goes back to a late April entry at $1.45. We've not looked at it much
since then, as there were no fireworks. Instead, we've seen a slow and
steady march up to the current price of $1.92... a 32% gain for us so far.
Let's go ahead and push the stop up to just a little above a break-even,
wherever that is for you.
iShares
S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index (PFF)
Who
woulda' thought a preferred stock ETF of all things would be one
of our biggest winners? It's true though - the iShares S&P U.S. Preferred
Stock Index is up 32% since our January entry. Crazy.
Anyway,
I know we upped the stop on PFF just a few days ago, but as I look at the
chart it seems as if the rally is finally starting to slow up. Buying volume
is tapering off too (though volume for an ETF doesn't mean as much as it
does for an outright stock). So, the strong possibility of a retreat from
current levels necessitates that we play tight defense here.
I don't
want to tell you where to draw the line in the sand for PFF. I just suggest
you think about how much ground you're not willing to give up on
any trade up by more than 30%, and then set a stop just above that mark.
And,
I think it's time to make exits on.....
American
Vanguard Corp. (AVD)
I had
such high hopes for this small cap fertilizer manufacturer. So many other
stocks in the industry seemed to be doing so well, I figured AVD was in
line for the same. After a little more than three weeks of zero progress
though, I'm not going to be stubborn. Let's go ahead and cut this one out,
and move on to better things.
Oh,
and don't worry - we do have a fertilizer play. China Agritech Inc.
(CAGC) is up about 26% for us so far, and is still going strong.
Clearwire
Corp. (CLWR)
We
went short on Clearwire in late May after a severe breakdown turned into
a downtrend. The trend didn't really take hold though, and since
then
we've actually started to see higher lows.
Granted,
we've also seen lower highs since that point, translating into what's approximately
a wedge shaped chart. However, there's no strong indication of which side
of the wedge is apt to crack first. So, the smart thing to do is just pull
the plug now while we're close to a break-even.
Look
for some new entry ideas next time. I had a couple of ideas on the radar
I still may or may not take. But, quality is more important than quantity,
and with the market as indecisive as it has been of late, this is no time
to be careless.
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Good News and Bad News as Small-Cap
Earnings Start to Roll Out
The big news today is that Big Cap
bank stocks are seeking approval to redeem their preferred stock issues
from the Treasury Dept. After paying back their TARP loans, the bankers
really don't want the government to have any vested interest in them. No
comments yet on regulation (which will happen).
The stories linked below are just
as significant to investors, however, as Small Cap earnings begin to roll
out. With a strong dollar globally, excess capacity and a decrease in wage
pressures, Where's the money to be made in Small Caps?
Read
the rest at our community pages.
Four Small-Cap Stocks For the
Obama Administration
You can think of Alternative Energy,
Healthcare, Infrastructure and High Yield as sectors that should perform
quite well under the Obama Administration.
Here's a bit of food for thought
on some Obama-flavored small-cap stocks:
The bulk of Obama's $5.5 billion
stimulus allocation will go toward installation of solar panels on Federal
building roofs as well as to install high-tech energy meters and smart
lighting systems that adjust to daylight.
Government agencies will be on a
pretty tight schedule. The following timetable shows the specific percentages
and deadlines they must meet to increase renewable sources:
3% or more in fiscal years 2007 through
2009
5% or more in fiscal years 2010 through2012
7.5% or more by 2013
That's a 150% increase in the percentage
of energy sourced from renewable means, like solar, by 2013. These companies
stand to profit from a solar influx.
Read
the rest at our community pages.