We wanted to wait until the Fed announcement today just to be sure there wasn't a significant shoe dropping that would adversely affect the market's landscape right now. The Fed left everything unchanged, which is no surprise to us. Again, the media played it as a much bigger deal than the actual result. The market pretty much expected in advance what the Fed ultimately ended up doing... which was nothing.
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However, the market's knee jerk reaction to the news sparked a selloff as I type, but I suspect the move was nothing but that... a knee jerk reaction. I wouldn't hold too much water to the way the market reacted shortly following the Fed announcement.
What's more important is we saw continued bullish follow through yesterday until the NDX ran into a bit of a headwind at 2630 yesterday late in the day, which was only eight points from the resistance range we've been mentioning for days now between 2638 and 2660. The closer we approach that level, call option holders should likely be taking profits off the table, if you haven't already. The easier money on the long side has been made at least for the very short-term, so let's not get too crazy trying to extend those gains much more.
At this point, I'm still fairly convinced we're going to see that 2638 - 2660 level hit to the upside, but this game is not absolute on a point by point basis. Since we hit 2630 yesterday, it's possible the market could back off. Therefore, we don't suggest getting long or short any index options on a short-term basis until one of two things happen. Today's subject line is extremely important toward having some sort of clues to where this market is going to want to go in the near-term.
Our short-term analysis is likely going to have a significant impact on the future strength of this market in the coming months ahead. I'm going to switch over to the NASDAQ Composite (COMPQ) today to make our point. The NASDAQ Composite consists of the common stocks and similar securities (e.g. ADRs, tracking stocks, limited partnership interests) listed on the NASDAQ stock market, meaning that it has over 3,000 components. It is highly followed in the U.S. as an indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.
Since tech has been the primary driver of growth over the last few years, I think it's important to focus our analysis on that broader index now as opposed to the NDX, which is 17% represented by Apple (AAPL) alone. The NASDAQ Composite is a much broader look at the overall picture.
I've included a daily chart of the COMPQ here to bring a few very important points to your attention. First, the complete 5/8 retracement from the March high to the June 4th low sits at roughly 2978. That's the first significant test that needs to be broken convincingly to the upside before we can start getting too excited. That level may even prove prudent to pick up some short-term put options on your favorite index ETF because until proven otherwise, that level "should" act as resistance. I suspect there would likely be a vary playable pullback at that level.
However, if we can break that level with enough steam to the upside, the March high of roughly 3135 would become a key breakout point that if broken to the upside, this market could roar like you haven't seen it roar in quite some time. It's important to understand even if the first test is successful, the second test must be a break above that 3135 level... nothing in between. Even if the COMPQ runs upwards of 3130 and fails, there's still the real possibility this market could reverse course. It must be a hard break above that 3135 level to get us out of the woods and another new leg up in the markets.
With those two tests providing significant hints for this market on a go forward basis, this gives you an bit of a crystal ball outlook on where this market may be headed if certain key levels are broken. If either of those tests fail hard and the market starts to break down, we'll be right here to give you additional levels to work with in an effort to maximize your short-term profits on the major indexes.
Notice since the Greek election we're not hearing a whole lot out of Europe and how Europe is going to have such a significant impact on this market? Let that be a good lesson learned not to react to what the media is spewing on a day-to-day basis. I noticed yesterday there was even some banter starting to surface about how Russia could be the wild card. Really? They're reaching if you ask me.
Let's stay focused on what's going on here at home because I don't believe anything is going to impact this market more than the state of our very own economy and... the charts are going to continue to tell us what our economic future at home is going to look like in the months ahead.
As for our featured stocks, CALL, SCLN, DMD, YELP and VRML, they're all performing nicely and are all still up from our coverage initiation point, so let's hope the major indexes find further strength to the upside and carry these stocks with them.