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VOLUME
02:
ISSUE 59
SmallCap Digest Weekend Edition:
The Worst Business On The Internet?
The
domain name registration business used to be a cash cow that afforded riches
and high stock prices for companies such as Verisign (VRSN)
and
Register.com
(RCOM).
Unfortunately for these former high fliers, domain names are now considered
a commodity where price rules. As consumers become more web savvy they
realize that there is absolutely no reason to pay $35 for
a one year registration of a domain name when scores of other registrars
sell them for under $10.
Eventually people will get wise to
what Verisign and Register.com have been doing, which is charging three
times more than the market price. Looking at the stock price it looks like
investors have certainly figured this out. In the last six months
alone, shares of Verisign are down over 60%
while Register.com has fallen over 40%.
Although both companies are dependent on domain registrations, Verisign
is a much more diversified company and sports a hefty $1.9 billion
dollar market capitalization. Register.com on the other hand is much
smaller at $183.3 million and relies almost 100% on domain
name registrations for its livelihood.
At $4.58 per share
Register.com is trading at a discount to the $5.38 per share
the company has in cash, cash equivalents, short-term investments and marketable
securities. The company reported weaker than expected numbers on
July 29th and saw its stock get walloped from $7.25 per share.
Earnings came in at $0.02 per share versus the First Call
estimate of $0.06 per share which isn't too bad but in
the current market environment missing earnings usually means a 30+%
decline in the stock price.
Register.com has approximately 3.4
million domain names under management and has a renewal rate of
around 50%. Going forward this number will only continue to
decline because consumers will ask themselves if they would rather pay
$35 or $10 for the identical item. It is only a matter of time before
business erodes to the point where Register.com starts burning its cash
reserves. Management has been trying to generate revenues by offering
web hosting options and other services but on a cost basis the company's
prices are too high.
With
$211.4
million in cash, cash equivalents, short-term investments and marketable
securities Register.com is going to be business for quite sometime but
the stock will languish unless something dramatic happens. That something
needs to be marriage with another company that can offer services to the
3.4 million domains that Register.com has under management. The following
are a few companies that should take a serious look at buying Register.com:
Interland (INLD)
is
now one the largest business web hosting company in the world. At
$2.75
per share the company has a market cap over $378 million
dollars. Interland should be cash flow positive for the first
time by the end of August 2002. With
$172.1 million
in cash, investments and temporarily restricted cash, Interland is financially
sound. The company could really strengthen its balance with the cash that
Register.com has in the bank and also improve the top line by adding $110
million in revenue.
Earthlink (ELNK)
has
really been pushing its web hosting business to its 5 million
subscribers. Adding a top notch domain registrar such as Register.com
would help the ISP come up with a all in one package that included internet
access, web hosting, and domain name registration. Earthlink needs
new subscribers and the 3.4 million domains under Register.com's management
could mean new ISP accounts.
Yahoo (YHOO)
has
always had problems figuring out how to increase revenues. The giant
portal currently sells domain names for $35 but is a small player in the
industry. Buying Register.com would not help business that much besides
being able to add the domain registrar's cash and revenues to its books.
However, Yahoo has to continually purchase companies to make up for the
steep decline that the company's ad revenue has experienced. The
company does have a giant advantage over the other potential suitors and
that is a $7.2 billion dollar market cap.
A takeover of Register.com could probably
be in the neighborhood of $300-$350 million or about $8.00
a share. The price could be much higher depending on the
desperation of the suitor. Management at Register.com has no real
incentive to sellout because there is cash in the bank and the company
is profitable. It may take a sweetheart deal to convince the management
team to accept an offer.
We will monitor the situation and
issue a trading alert if a deal looks to be in the works.
D I S C
L A I M E R :
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