Today's newsletter is probably one of the shortest I've written in a long while. Whether that's good news or bad news is largely a matter of perspective, but I've made a commitment to never put a lot of words in print just for the sake of a word count - there's simply not a whole lot to talk about today.
On the other hand, there's always something to talk about... or make fun of.
Since we have time and room in today's edition, there were a couple of things I'd like to pan.
Seriously? I Mean, Seriously?
Let me get this straight. Former PIMCO bond fund manager Bill Gross is now suing his former employer - a year after he was fired for (frankly) poor performance - for $200 million in due bonus wages from the alleged $300 million bonus pool that he and his lawyers claim was instead collected by the very men who ousted him?
First and foremost, Bill, chill out. It doesn't pay to pick legal fights you don't know for sure you can win.
Second, if new and younger talent was able to convince an entire company you - a multi-decade veteran - weren't worth what you were earning (pay + bonus + whatever else), then you probably were overpaid. Right or wrong, that's corporate America. Prove your worth every day, or someone else will eventually disprove it.
Oh yeah -- most companies are also an "at will" employer, and I'm sure PIMCO didn't have any unusual perks or safety nets built into Gross's contract. Welcome to the world.
Something else that caught my eye today.... did everyone else see where Morgan Stanley downgraded GoPro (GPRO) yesterday, after the stock had given up 50% of its value since early August, and after the stock had given up 70% of its value since last October's peak?
Actually, it wasn't technically a downgrade. That may be the stupidest part of all. Morgan Stanley cut its target price on GPRO from $62 to $35 [after it had fallen from $65 to $30], yet the brokerage house inexplicably decided to hold its opinion of the stock at "equal weight."
Folks, you can't cut a target price in half in one fell swoop and not say there's not any sort of opinion change. You just can't.
For that matter, it does little good to put a new price target in place after the stock is already at the target price. Where was Morgan Stanley three months ago?
The irony is, I can't help but wonder if the bevy of bad news and bearishness is a contrarian reason to buy it. That's another story though. My only point for today is, too many of Wall Street's analysts can be downright worthless... an idea we passed along to you on September 30th.
Alright, I'm getting off my soapbox now.
Bingo!
You may or may not remember it, but way back on August 28th we took a good look at the industrial sector, concluding they were underestimated and undervalued relative all other sectors. Well, that didn't mean much for the next five weeks, as these stocks along with all other sectors continued to look for firm footings. Well, take a look at this weekly chart of the S&P 500 Industrial Index chart. That's an explosive move, making the industrials the second-best performer for the week so far (behind energy) after sub-par results all year long.
I've not yet decided if this is a move that's going to grow legs, but I like it so far. The real test will be how it holds up when the bears finally start to push back.
We just wanted you sector-rotation people to know about it. The industrial sector has been due for a rebound for a while now.
Over the Hump
Well folks, there ya go. Color me a little surprised. The S&P 500 did manage to clear a technical hurdle at 1994 and move to a close of 2013.43 today. There's still some more resistance ahead, but that's a pretty impressive hurdle it just cleared.
The NASDAQ had a pretty good showing too, pushing up and off of its 20-day moving average line. That layer of resistance between 4841 and 4957 still remains, but with the way the VXN seems to be developing a pretty good downtrend, maybe this is the beginning of the usual Q4 rally. Maybe a deep capitulation is officially off the table.
It'll be interesting to see at what point investors remember the market is already overvalued as is. It's going to take a miraculous Q3 earnings season and upped outlooks for current prices to come close to making any sense with respect to forward-looking P/E levels.
If you're looking for more, better, deeper, and more actionable daily advice, the Elite Opportunity is still your best option. John Monroe and his crew get into the nitty gritty more than I can here.