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VOLUME
02:
ISSUE 77
November Profile: CEL-SCI Corporation
(AMEX:CVM)
On
March 3, 1995 a little known biotech company named Imclone Systems (IMCL)
closed at $0.19 per share (a split adjusted price
of
$0.38 per share). Over the course of the next seven years
this biotechnology company began an incredible run that may never be equaled.
Imclone's stock reached its pinnacle on December 5th, 2001 when the stock
closed at $146.66 per share (split adjusted $73.83
per share).
Investors that owned just $1000.00
of
Imclone at $0.19 per share saw their stake increase to over
$771,000
dollars in less than seven years. Even today, after all the
scandals and turmoil at Imclone that same one thousand dollars is still
worth approximately $94,000 dollars.
Investing in biotechnology has always
been an exciting venture. Along with this excitement comes volatility
which in turn may lead to unbelievable rewards such as those experienced
by early Imclone shareholders. The biotechnology industry has been
and will always be attractive for investors because the industry strives
to save lives and in essence change the world.
However, due to the complexity of
this sector, companies will often experience a disconnect between the stock
price and the corporate developments. What fundamental difference
was there between Imclone at $0.19 per share versus $146.66
per share?
In an industry that has often been
accused of hype, there are companies that have real potential with valuations
that are very attractive.
Today we introduce you to a biotechnology
company that has been in business for almost 20 years.
Fundamentally, the company is on the brink of entering Phase III trials
for its lead drug but the stock price is at its lowest levels in the company's
history. The SmallCap Digest may have found what could be the best
"value play" in the biotech industry.
Stock Listing: AMEX: CVM
Estimated Shares Issued and Outstanding:
34.7
million
Estimated Public Float: 31.9 Million
Last Closing Price: $0.21
Market Capitalization: $6.93 Million
52 Week High and Low : $1.29/$0.16
Corporate Web Site: http://www.cel-sci.com
CEL-SCI Corporation (CVM)
is
a biotechnology company involved in the development of new noninvasive
immune system based treatments for cancer and infectious diseases. Formed
in 1983, CEL-SCI has been involved in the research and development of certain
drugs and vaccines primarily focused in the treatment of cancer for almost
20 years.
Unlike many of the companies in the
industry CEL-SCI is geared toward early stage treatment therapy, while
most other potential therapies are mostly focused on late stage treatment.
The company believes that early stage treatment will improve the survival
rate in cancer patients. This could be significant as early treatment of
cancer is very important in prolonging survival.
CEL-SCI has nearly completed its
Phase II study on the effects of its lead drug Multikine
on head and neck cancer patients. In addition an ongoing study with
Multikine for HIV infected women with Human Papilloma Virus (HPV), testing
showed the elimination of about 75% of the HPV strains following the administration
of Multikine.
Multikine is a drug with so much
potential that CEL-SCI has spent $35 million dollars over
the past eight years on the manufacturing validation work involved with
producing the drug. It was a requirement that heath regulators mandated
before Phase III trials could be initiated. Now that this aspect
has been completed, the capital expenditures going forward will be reduced
significantly.
With the company's stock at $0.21
per share the market capitalization of CEL-SCI stands at $6.93
million dollars or only 20% of what the company has
spent on getting their manufacturing validated for Multikine.
We believe that the company's potential
and intellectual property is undervalued. Our short term target for
CEL-SCI is $0.30 per share which is a 42%
return from Friday's closing price of $0.21 per share.
Our 12-month target for the company is $1.00
per share. Investors with a five year time horizon have the potential
to experience the return of a lifetime- Imclone like appreciation is possible
as Phase III clinical trials start providing results with downside of a
mere $.20.
Multikine (Head & Neck Cancer)
Multikine is CEL-SCI's most advanced
drug having been used to treat over 150 head & neck cancer patients.
The drug has induced tumor reduction in Phase I/II trials of head &
neck cancer. Multikine is not tumor specific and, if proven effective,
may work against most solid tumors and/or virus caused diseases. CEL-SCI
believes that most, if not all, cancer treatments could benefit from the
addition of Multikine by generating a targeted, immune based anti tumor
response.
The American
Cancer Society statistics show that there are 500,000
annual new cases of head and neck cancer worldwide with over 40,000
in
the United States. Head and neck cancer is extremely difficult to treat.
Disfiguring surgery, chemotherapy and radiation are often used and 5 year
survival rates are low. About 50% of patients experience
recurrence within two years, regardless of the therapy employed and most
of these patients die within a year.
Multikine is an early stage drug
that may have the ability to save the lives of many cancer patients by
reducing the number of cancer recurrences following treatment. In
head & neck cancer, approximately 50% of the patients will end up being
cured by surgery alone or surgery and follow-on radiation therapy.
The remaining 50% of the patients
will have a recurrence of the tumor one to two years later. Multikine
is administered 2 weeks prior to surgery with the goal of eliciting an
anti tumor immune response that will act to reduce cancer recurrence rates.
In Europe, reports from one clinical
center show that all eight head & neck cancer patients in a Phase
II clinical trial who were treated by the same investigator with Multikine
in combination with surgery/radiation over 2 years ago, have not had recurrences
to date and remain alive.
This
finding is not conclusive because further tests must be done. However
the results are very encouraging because it is generally expected that
approximately 50% of such patients would have experienced a recurrence
on or before 18--24 months post treatment.
According to CEL-SCI's
corporate website, the company's partner in Asia, Orient
Europharma, is planning to take Multikine into a Phase III clinical
trial for the treatment of advanced primary oral cancer during 2002 or
possibly early 2003.
The Company believes that worldwide
sales for this indication alone could be over $300 million.
Additional sales could be expected from other head & neck cancer uses.
Multikine (HPV)
Multikine is being developed as a
potential treatment for Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) induced
cervical dysplasia (Cervical dysplasia is a premalignant or precancerous
change to the cells of your cervix) in HIV infected women.
Multikine is currently in Phase
I clinical trial in HIV-infected women with HPV induced cervical
dysplasia being conducted at the Institute for Human Virology
in Baltimore.
CEL-SCI believes that HPV induced
cervical dysplasia patients who are also HIV-infected, and therefore represent
the most difficult to treat and cure, is the fastest way to bring Multikine
to the market. There are a number of compelling reasons for this:
This disease currently afflicts 120,000
to 140,000 women (HPV/HIV co-infection) in the United
States, and substantially more in
other parts of the world. According to the Center
For Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), 70% of HIV positive
women are infected with HPV and are more susceptible to the disease stemming
from their compromised immune system.
The majority of HIV-infected women with
HPV induced cervical dysplasia treated with Multikine have had a disappearance
of dysplasia, both visually and by biopsy and with minimal or no toxicity.
In addition, there are currently no
effective, non surgical therapies for these women. And Multikine is the
only product currently being developed.
U.S. market: potential of sales of $200
million per year.
Once approved for sale, CEL-SCI intends
to focus on persistent or recurrent cervical dysplasia in HIV infected
women. This population also lacks successful treatment. The assumption
underlying the potential success of Multikine in the general population
is that many scientists believe they have some kind of underlying immune
deficiency.
L.E.A.P.S. Technology
The goal of the L.E.A.P.S.
(Ligand Epitope Antigen Presentation System) technology is to activate
the immune system in specific and potent ways to fight cancer and infectious
diseases. L.E.A.P.S. core technology builds on CEL-SCI's experience in
mobilizing the human immune response.
L.E.A.P.S.
is a patented T-cell modulation technology with three important advantages:
1. Strong, specific activation
of the T-cell response, as shown in animals.
2. Fast and efficient integration
and evaluation of selected epitopes from a variety of sources.
3. Ability to facilitate disease
antigen presentation and to preferentially direct immune response outcome,
a major breakthrough.
The first one is a new compound called
CEL-1000,
which was found as an outgrowth of L.E.A.P.S. technology. CEL-1000
is gaining great momentum. After showing protection in animal tests
against malaria, herpes simplex and cancer in early studies, CEL-SCI recently
expanded its program in malaria by signing a Cooperative Research and Development
Agreement (CRADA) with the U.S. Naval Research Institute.
The company also recently announced
an agreement with the Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center
of the University of Cincinnati to evaluate CEL-1000
for protection against herpes in the guinea pig vaginal challenge model.
CEL-SCI also hopes to test CEL-1000 against bio-terrorism agents in the
future.
Collaborations
On average, it costs a company $359
million to get one new medicine from the laboratory to the pharmacist's
shelf, according to a February 1993 report by the Congressional Office
of Technology Assessment.
One of the ways that smaller biotech
firms offset the costs is by collaborating with other deep pocketed entities
such as large pharmaceuticals, hospitals, or government agencies.
It is very rare for a company the size of CEL-SCI to have multiple collaborations
with world class institutions.
The more collaborations a company
has the higher the likelihood that something positive will develop from
the firm's intellectual property. CEL-SCI has established a high
number of powerful collaborations as follows:
Scientists from the laboratory of Dr.
Noel Rose in The Johns Hopkins University Department of Pathology
and CEL-SCI presented data at the Experimental Biology 2002 meeting that
could lead to development of a treatment for autoimmune myocarditis, a
life threatening heart disease, characterized by an enlarged heart.
Scientists from the Institute
of Human Virology, University of Maryland and CEL-SCI announced
the presentation of clinical data with our Multikine as a potentially effective
new treatment for HIV-infected women with Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) induced
cervical dysplasia at the March 2002 Annual Meeting of the Society of Gynecological
Oncologists in Miami, Florida.
After showing protection in animal tests
against malaria, herpes simplex and cancer in early studies, CEL-SCI recently
expanded their program in malaria by signing a Cooperative Research and
Development Agreement with the U.S. Naval Research Institute.
CEL-SCI recently announced an agreement
with the Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center of the University
of Cincinnati to evaluate CEL-1000 for protection against herpes
in the guinea pig vaginal challenge model.
CEL-SCI's partner in Asia, Orient
Europharma, is planning to take Multikine into a Phase III clinical
trial for the treatment of advanced primary oral cancer during 2002 or
2003.
Conclusion
Investors will be hard pressed to
find a $0.21 cent stock that has almost completed its Phase
II trials and should be entering Phase III trials in the near future.
In addition, CEL-SCI also has its lead drug Multikine in Phase I clinical
trials in HIV-infected women with HPV induced cervical dysplasia.
This Phase I trial is being conducted at the Institute for Human
Virology in Baltimore.
Owning shares of CEL-SCI is similar
to owning a long term option on a revolutionary new cancer drug. The bonus
is that the option never expires.
The company has been public for almost
fifteen years. During this ferocious bear market of the past two
and a half years CEL-SCI was able to raise capital in the most unfriendly
of environments. The company has proven itself to be a survivor.
CEL-SCI's stock at an all time low
thanks to market conditions. If CEL-SCI's drugs continue to provide
favorable clinical results, the company represents an opportunity to enjoy
lottery like returns over the longer term. In the short term this stock
should rise with the tide of an improving climate for stocks.
There is tremendous potential in
what we consider the best "value play" in biotechnology today. With
this potential comes risk. Take a few dollars of your high risk/high
return capital, and own some shares of CEL-SCI before clinical results
put this stock on the radar screens of biotech investors.
D I S C
L A I M E R :
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