So far so good. We're seeing some follow through on yesterday's snapback rally of the major indexes. We mentioned yesterday we were a little early on the anticipated support level of the NDX around 2550, so those calls we purchased are currently sitting at a break even on our suggested call options trade in the QQQ's, which is a gift considering late last week's complete meltdown in the markets. With that being said, I've closed out and have taken a wait and see approach to determine whether or not yesterday's move is the start of bottoming formation, or if it's merely a relief rally for sellers to jump back on the wagon and take this market lower.
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With the NDX at 2556 as I type, I suspect we'll see at least 2580 - 2597 before the market decides what it really wants to do in the short-term, however, I just don't see the risk/reward there of playing the call options for a 30 - 40 point move from here. With our longer-term charts still technically intact for the bullish argument, it's obvious the short-term daily charts are in a downward trend, so I suspect we're going to see a fair amount of volatility while this market figures out what it wants to do.
If you absolutely have to play the major indexes on a short-term basis, I'd employ a very contrarian approach to the hourly bar charts. Unless the NDX breaks 2475 to the downside, the best way to play the indexes may be to fade the rallies with put options and fade the pullbacks with call option purchases. However, just like with an overly speculative penny stock, I'd keep a pretty short leash on your positions because at this point, anything can happen.
In order to be convinced that this market is forming a good solid bottom, we're going to need to see a number of things happen before we're convinced we've seen the worst over the mid-term. It's going to get tricky from here with the summer months in front of us and the building anticipation of what may arguably be the single most important presidential election in decades. From a market perspective, this is going to present incredible opportunities to make some serious money, you're just going to have to work a little harder to make it happen.
We'll do everything we can to help you navigate your way in the weeks and months ahead. Moving on...
We're all privy to the recent social media IPO's, as they've clearly been front and center in the media. No pun intended. Facebook (FB), Zynga (ZNGA), Yelp (YELP) and Angie's List (ANGI) have all entered the public markets recently and in short, we're sticking our neck out there and suggesting that when it's all said and done, YELP will be the stock everyone wished they own ten years from now. And, you may be surprised as to how simple our reasoning is.
Yelp? Yup.
I mentioned yesterday that my phone was blowing up last week with friends and family asking me if they should buy FB on the IPO debut. My answer was a very quick NO. It took me no time at all to decide that FB wasn't a stock I wanted to own early on with its IPO debut. First, they could have priced the IPO at various valuations and justifying it in an equal number of ways, none of which in my opinion considered the post IPO investor. In short, the goal was to value the IPO as the single largest IPO in history while taking advantage of every single investor who has never bought a stock in their life. Even if that isn't true, one has to think FB's investment bankers wanted the recognition and fame of launching the most popular IPO in recent history following Google's.
With Mark Zuckerberg still having controlling interest, the whole deal just seems all too self-serving to me. From the bankers to the management, $90 Billion seems way to lofty for a site where people just hang out and post pictures and comments. Yes, I understand the value of their 900 million user base. That's not my argument. We all forget too easily what happened with My Space once the big money showed up at their doorstep. One of the primary problems I see with FB is because it's a pure social platform play, everyone's privacy is a very big deal, and as FB moves toward increased monetization of their site, this is going to become an increasingly bigger concern.
As FB users get bombarded with ads and stealth like offers in an effort to justify the Company's massive valuation, I think users are going to start bailing in droves. I've already gotten to the point where I don't use FB hardly at all anymore and I know others that feel the same way. The forced application of their new timeline feature is just one way the Company is pushing the envelope of privacy. Now, everyone on your friends list can go back and stalk your every move. Yes, I know... FB has privacy controls. I understand the space as well as anyone and understand FB's site functionality probably as good as anyone at the Company.
Enough of my FB rant. You can see for a number of reason why I don't like where the stock is valued. The bottom line is they did not price the IPO in a way that provided enough wiggle room for investors to make money and to allow themselves room for growing pains. Just my opinion.
Zynga is a game site. Never used it. Not even once. Angie's List is... well, Angie's List. I've never once used that site either. However, YELP? Now that's a site not only I use on a very regular basis but so does most everyone I know. I can count on two hands how many stocks in the last ten years I've gotten excited about because I'm either an avid user of their product or service. The two big ones that come to mind are Apple and Netflix. We actually recommended Apple way back at $15 per share years ago when they rolled out the very first IPod. I was a huge fan of Netflix until they got goofy with their pricing and how they dealt with competitors.
Yelp for me is one of those stocks. I use it on a regular basis, only second to Google. When I'm looking for a place to eat, a service to hire, a contact # for a business, directions to a restaurant or just to see what someone thinks about a business, I use Yelp. Yelp, to me, has become the flagship yellow pages of old... on steroids. It goes far beyond what the yellow pages did for businesses and we all know the yellow pages were a fixture in everyone's home. And, it was a massively profitable revenue generating machine in its hay day. Personally, I don't view Yelp as much of a social media play as others, so I don't think we're comparing apples to apples when it comes to privacy and other issues. Yelp, in my opinion, has a clearly defined revenue model that sits in the absolute sweet spot of B2B and B2C advertising.
If Google should be concerned about anyone stealing market share in the long-run, it should be Yelp. And, the stock is still technically a small cap. Valued at just over a $1B market cap, that's eighty nine times less than FB right now. The Company's recent earnings announcement exceeded expectations and the stock is down. Shares of Yelp opened for trading at $22 per share and in the last three days has made a new low. With the stock currently trading at $19 and change, investors now have an opportunity to pick up what I consider to be a homerun stock for the future at less than the original IPO price.
From a valuation perspective, Yelp is completely inline and offers the most upside in my opinion of all the social media stocks out there right now. I bought some today and there's a good possibility I won't sell that stock for years. I love the site. I love the valuation and I love the future prospects of the Company.
We're going to make Yelp a Featured Stock on our site today, so be sure to make it your destination if you're looking to find out what everyone else thinks about this promising young Company. This is one investment I'm not worried about at all.