Finally! Looks like our federal government's leaders have all but put things back into motion by striking a budget deal this afternoon. Stocks jumped, of course, but like we warned you a few days ago this could be a quintessential "buy the rumor, sell the news" situation. Would the S&P 500 be trading around 1720 now had the budget been approved a couple of weeks ago (and none of this fiasco would have materialized)? Maybe, or maybe not. We'll know for sure in just a few days, because given enough time, the market's still ultimately going to reflect earnings rather than confidence in our political system. This shutdown business will be nothing but a memory soon. The ironic part is, the market's recent technical movement has set up a perfect opportunity to kick-start the "sell the news" effort. Take a look at the S&P 500, for instance. It was a few days ago we explained to you how the upper 20-day Bollinger band as well as the prior peak around 1729 could be - and probably would be - a contentious level again. Well, we're about to find out for sure. The SPX inched its way toward that level today, stopping just a tad short. I just find it interesting (though not surprising) the debt-limit deadline is perfectly-timed with the first chance the S&P 500 has had to test a major technical ceiling. Just to be clear, I'm not saying traders consciously planned for the market to reach the brink of a key technical line right around the time we were going to get what's perceived as a bullish catalyst. I am saying, however, traders' collective subconscious minds have a funny way of lining things up. My guess is we'll see the S&P 500 move to, or even a little above, 1729 once a budget deal is officially done and the debt-limit has been raised. Thing is, I also have the feeling that once most investors are convinced all this shutdown business is behind us and stocks are destined for a major rally, it would be the perfect time for the bears to up-end the rally and give us an overdue pullback. See, the market has a way of disappointing most of the people most of the time. The NASDAQ Composite's chart is in the same basic boat. It's just a few points away from reaching its upper 20-day Bollinger band at 3852, having already cleared its prior peak of 3818. Now, could my "buy the rumor, sell the news" theory be wrong? Sure, anything's possible, especially in this environment. I'm just suspicious of a debt-ceiling-driven rally here, as the market has already priced-in an end to the stalemate; that's how the S&P 500 advanced nearly 4% since October 9th. I just don't know if there's any politically-driven gas left in the market's tank, even if the media (not to mention most investors) say there is. With all of that being said, my game plan is exactly what John Monroe described in today's edition of the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity newsletter: ...even if the S&P breaks out to a new high, how long that breakout lasts will be suspect based on what's happened following every other short-term breakout since late May.... Like I said before, it's entirely possible we could be in for a buy the rumor, sell the news scenario, which means the recent run-up was nothing but a mere short-term head fake rotation trapping early short sellers, when the indexes actually want to move lower. The flip side is if there's no sign of weakness in the hours following a deal announcement, that is likely going to suggest yesterday's breakout on the Russell 2000 is for real and the first clue these markets wanted to start moving convincingly higher. The bottom line is, let's pay very close attention to how these markets react later today and tomorrow, depending on when Washington decides to get a deal done. He's spot-on. Whatever happens in response to the official end to the shutdown is going to be the key, though the response may not be clear until investors have had a few hours to digest it all. I'd like to tell you the rest of what Monroe said, but I really can't do that - it's the proverbial "good stuff" reserved for SCN EO subscribers. If you really want to get handle on what's going on with stocks though, I strongly recommend checking it out either by (1) becoming a subscriber, or (2) using the free two-week trial (which gives you access to all the old newsletters.) This is a very tricky environment for the market right now, and you don't want to be navigating it without a map. The SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity is that map. Here's your ticket to a two-week test drive. Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/ This Pick Finally Getting Some Traction With the exit of Ixia (XXIA) and the entry on Commercial Metals (CMC) yesterday we didn't get a chance to take a look we wanted to at one of our other picks. But, with all that's going in with it now, we really can't afford to wait another day - we have to make room to cover it today. The stock is Manitex International (MNTX) ... a small-cap crane manufacturer we recommended back on August 8th at a price around $11.10. Shares moved a little lower and then a little higher after the entry, but haven't really acted like they wanted to go anywhere meaningful in the meantime. That is, until now, and for a very good reason. First and foremost, the $14.8 million secondary offering Manitex announced in late September doesn't seem to have bugged the market much. Oh, there was the knee-jerk selling effort, because there's nobody who likes dilution. But, all of that dip has been wiped away, and then some. What's interesting is how Manitex was upgraded to a strong buy by Zacks in the meantime, not in spite of the fund-raising, but because of it. See, Manitex International is one of those companies in a situation where the market wants it to have more money because it's already doing such productive work with the assets it currently has. The clincher - and the reason MNTX is doing so well today - may have something to do with the fact that Manitex was named as one of Forbes' best small cap companies yesterday. It's the kind of thing that really draws a buying crowd. While I couldn't have predicted this specific chain of bullish events in August, I'm not surprised about any of them. Manitex is just a great company with a history of this kind of stuff, and I was counting on more of the same in the future. All I was trying to do was pick the right spot on the chart with our entry. On that note... When we got into MNTX back in early August, we told you about it with the expectation of shares finally being flung out of a horizontal trading range between $10.00 and $12.00. Although the stock's not broken out of that range yet, the potential is still there, and we're getting very close to another try. Manitex International shares were trading just a few cents south of $12.00 today, and one or two more good sessions could make it happen. Take a look. I don't want to say for sure we'll get that breakout. But, after eight months of consolidation, I don't mind saying we're overdue for a big jump. This could end up being a pretty sweet trade from our entry at $11.10. We'll keep you tuned in.