Good morning again, folks.
Yes, it's another morning edition of the newsletter, but not because we've got urgent news to pass along. Rather, today's edition is a timeless lesson about penny stocks, so there's no need to wait until the end of the day to deliver it.
Yes, the stock in question is one of our Featured Stocks - Empire Global (EMGL) - which we like a great deal, but the big things we like about EMGL are also applicable to other penny stocks. You just have to go out there and be willing to look for them, and then willing to own then.
Just as a refresher (or explanation for those of you not familiar with it), Empire Global is a budding casino conglomerate that's only come into existence as we know it within the past year or so, primarily with the acquisition of Multigioco Srl.
It's not a name that means much to most Americans. In Italy, however, it's one of the most recognizable names in the world of gaming... offline, and online. The company has assembled a total of 1200 web-shops (online casinos) that service about 30,000 different account holders under the EMGL umbrella, plus about 20 different arcade-style casinos in Italy. Better yet, if things go as expected, within the next few days the company will consist of a retail distribution network of over 3,700 online and offline neighborhood betting venues via an acquisition announced at the first of October. At that size, the company should be generating an estimated 300 million Euros in annual non-GAAP gaming turnover, and turning approximately 3 million of those Euros into a profit. Not bad for a $25 million company.
And that's one of the most compelling aspects of the company... the simple fact it's already driving revenue, and it's only acquiring outfits that are up and running, and also already driving revenue. All too often, the companies behind penny stocks are years away from revenue, and/or are non-reporting companies altogether. Not Empire Global though. That in itself is a huge advantage to shareholders.
It's not just the fact that EMGL is already in business that makes it a worthy long-term prospect however.
Too commonly , micro cap companies are operating on dying (or dead) industries. Cassette-tapes, public pay phones, and camera film come to mind. All of them had a good run, but all are obsolete now. Not gambling and gaming though. Although the format and venues have changed, people have loved poker, casino games, and betting on sporting events for centuries, and that's not about to change anytime soon. In fact, in Italy, the winds of change are blowing in favor of Empire Global.
It's a bit of a complex situation, but it can be boiled down to this: The Italian government not only doesn't want to put the kibosh on the country's gaming activity, it wants to enhance them and better organize them in an effort to extract more tax revenue. To that end, when a whole swath of gaming licenses expire in June of the coming year, it's already told gaming outfits it's not going to be issuing as many licenses as are currently valid - it's only going to issue licenses to the bigger names. This has in effect forced the consolidation of Italy's gaming industry's smaller players (consolidation that should have arguably happened anyway), which plays right into the hand that Empire Global is holding. It doesn't want to build from scratch as much as it wants to aggregate and improve.
For an example of how this same basic strategy has already been proven to work, and work well, one only has to look at how nicely Staffing 360 Solution (STAF) has grown over the past year and a half. Collectively, its unprofitable or barely-profitable divisions are now on a trajectory toward profits.
The biggest upside of EMGL, however, that traders should look for in all their stocks is the potential for the "opening up" of a whole new market that other traders simply don't see.... even if that opportunity may not materialize for years.
It's been a contentious point in the U.S. for a while now, and the status quo is still tilted against it. But, sooner or later, online gambling is going to be the norm in most (if not all) of the United States.
I know it doesn't look like that now, with only three states legalizing and strictly regulating online gaming in their respective states. It's coming though, and once it gets here, it could be a game-changer for EMGL.
For perspective, Morgan Stanley recently pegged the potential size of the U.S. online gaming market at $2.7 billion by 2020, and that was a lowered estimate based on concerns that adoption has been, and will be, just mediocre. That's still a sizeable number though, and just for the record, probably an overly-pessimistic one in response to the industry's slow start. With FanDuel and DraftKings both making legal and marketing headway, lawmakers as well as consumers are less and less averse to the entire idea of internet gaming.
And yes, while Empire Global is establishing a great foundation in Italy, it has mentioned once or twice it's got an eye on the U.S. internet gaming market. For it to even make mention of it now with no real online gambling market to speak of firmly implies - and bear in mind the people running Empire Global are industry insiders and know a thing or two - that internet gaming's growth undertow may be moving faster and more forcefully than you think.
The bottom line is, Empire Global meets three of the key criteria all of us should be looking for not just in the small caps and micro caps we like, but in large cap long-term holdings too:
Already operating at full speed
In a resilient industry
Secular growth of a particular market
As for the upside of names that meet these criteria, the proof of the pudding is in the chart. Take a look. Once the word started to get out about EMGL in early August - and people started to see the company do what it said it was going to do - the stock started to move methodically higher. Granted, three months isn't the same as three years, but considering the choppy market environment we've been in of late, that's pretty darn encouraging... slow and steady wins the race. It's not, however, unusual for penny stocks that largely fit the three criteria described above.
I suppose that's the long way of saying EMGL and penny stocks like it aren't the usual speculative fare traders usually associates with small and micro cap names, but rather, are fundamentally-sound long-term holdings. They're worth the hunt... if you're willing to stick with them for the long haul.