Yesterday's stumble from stocks was a red flag, but a forgivable one (and maybe even forgettable). After all, the indices all managed to push up and off their lows for the day. The bears took another swipe again today, and much like yesterday, the bulls managed to fight back pretty well. You gotta give 'em credit.
We'll put the whole thing under the microscope for you in a second. First, we need to work through today's more pressing stock-related news. There's no way we can detail all the important items for you, so we're just going to touch on everything real briefly, and get it done at breakneck speed.
Buckled in?
Your Market Minute
Remember the iWatch Apple (AAPL) was allegedly working on? Yeah, well, just like it did with the iPhone by making the Galaxy, Samsung is rumored to be working on its own wrist-based device. We still say the idea is ridiculous. That's not to say it won't sell - consumers love 'new' gadgets. But, the fact that Samsung is getting into the game doesn't validate the premise. Looks like one more way to distract drivers, in our view.
The pillaging of bank accounts in Cyprus may not be as painful for some as first thought. The word is, the country's legislature is considering not imposing the one-time penalty/tax on smaller bank accounts. It still doesn't exactly measure up as 'fair' to the country's bigger account holders though.
Lululemon (LULU) has announced it'll be recalling its black yoga pants, as the sheer nature of the fabric, umm... 'reveals' too much. The stock took about a 5% nosedive on the news. The market and the media made WAAAYYYY too big of a deal with the news, Granted, black yoga pants are probably Lululemon's cash cow, but these aren't smartphones or cars. These are pants, made of fabric. New ones can be put on shelves fairly quickly. Consumers also have a short-term memory too, and won't likely hold a grudge against the brand for more than a few days (despite what the media may be implying).
As we mentioned on Friday, February's housing starts and building permits were announced this morning. They were, in a word, great. The annual pace of 946,000 issued permits was a multi-year high, and the annual pace of 917,000 housing starts is close to a multi-year high. We've said it before but it bears repeating now - the housing and construction market has been defying critics for more than two years now. At some point those doubters will have to face reality. Perma-bear Gary Shilling apparently isn't ready to do that; he found away to quell the good news before it got traction today by saying "housing will limp along at best." It's been "limping" for two years now. I'll take it.
Finally, Apple is reportedly raising its dividend, after being harassed by David Einhorn a couple of weeks ago for holding onto too much cash - $137 billion, to be exact. The word is, the dividend payout is going to jump by more than 50%, to more than $4.00 per quarter. That's still only going to distribute about $15.7 billion in cash per year, but it's a move the market wanted.
Moving on.
Convincing
Although the bulls managed to pick themselves up off the mat today, they still didn't fight their way back to a higher close. That's the third losing day in a row, and the second high-volume loss in the past three days. The S&P 500 also just logged its second (and consecutively lower) close under last Thursday's low, which was the line in the sand we'd mentioned a couple of times.
There aren't a lot of ways to interpret that, other than the fact that the bears are winning the war. They're also winning the war precisely where they should be - right as the S&P 500 eclipsed a major, multi-year ceiling. Let's take it at face value.
On the other hand, let's not make more out of this dip than we need to. Stocks still have value, and earnings are still growing. We don't expect this pullback to be anything other than a garden variety pullback. Let's do talk about a downside target though.
Remember Bollinger bands? We've talked about them a couple of times in the last couple of weeks, so we're not going to give the lesson again, other than that they tend to cap rallies and selloffs. Anyway, the S&P 500's lower Bollinger band is now at 1487. That's also where the index bottomed out in late February, so there's a major natural floor there. A move to that mark would also translate into a 5% pullback from the peak last week.... a fairly typical bull market dip.
One word of caution: Don't assume we're going to make a straight-line move to the 1487 area, which is the indirect way of saying we may still see a few 'up' days on the way down.
But hey, this is a journey and not a destination. We'll update the outlook tomorrow.
From the Site
If you're looking for actionable ideas, then we really hope you took a look at the site today - there's a truckload of them, beginning with John Udovich's take on Atlantic Power (AT). He doesn't pull any punches either, saying "After repeated earnings misses, a dividend cut and an announcement of a poison pill, small cap Atlantic Power Corp. has had a rough few months - losing more than two-thirds of its value since November." Yet, despite the fact that the vultures are circling, John makes a case for being a scavenger here.
Speaking of scavenging, James Brumley threw his hat into the 3D printing ring today with a closer look at 3D Systems (DDD). Those who know the stock will also know it's been hammered since January - a painful dip augmented by the fact that it actually accelerated its rally heading into January. Everything comes and goes though, and as Brumley asks of DDD,is it ready to bounce, or is the stock on the verge of getting worse?
Anyway, those are just a couple of potentially-actionable ideas for you. If you want ongoing trading suggestions though (with the specifics on any entry or exit), then you want to tap into the brilliant minds of the editors of the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity. Every single day - and during the trading day - SCN EO members receive an e-mail alert that names specific stock ideas, as well as takes a good, unbiased look at the broad market. As I told you yesterday, it was the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity that really opened my eyes to the fact that stocks were hitting a wall. Sure enough, this week so far has been a tough one.
If you're not a SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity subscriber, then you're not getting the most out of the market. You can learn more about it here. Or, copy and paste the following link in your browser: http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=SCN+Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/