In
This Edition...
Power3
Medical Products (PWRM), First Regional Bancorp (FRGB), SPDR Trust S&P
500 Fund (SPY), ImmuneRegen Biosciences Holdings (IRBS), and Provident
Financial Holdings (PROV) are reviewed in depth.
After
that, we take an updated look at our market forecast.
Stocks
in Focus
Up-Trend
Outlook: PROV, ACHN, SIGA
Dennis
Askew found an incredible turnaround story with Provident Financial Holdings
Inc., (NASDAQ:PROV). Last quarter's EPS of $0.37 is a complete '180' from
the $0.82 per share the company lost for the same quarter a year earlier.
The bank is positioned for more of the same though, and Dennis says Provident
Financial Holdings is something to buy on its dips. Check out the commentary
for the full details.
ImmuneRegen
Stem Cell Active Compound Gaining Attention
The
ImmuneRegen Biosciences Holdings Inc. (OTCBB:IRBS) story has been not only
amazing, but occasionally strange. The company's lead compound has proven
effective as an immune booster, yet the brains behind it didn't even initially
know how it worked. As the 'know how' comes to light, its applications
are growing in number. M.E. Garza has the full scoop.
Technical
Forecasts for HEB, SNSS, and SPY
Even
with the strong start today, the SPDR Trust S&P 500 Fund (NYSE:SPY)
is already fading into flatness... a prediction made by James Brumley yesterday,
who says the damage done to stocks over the last few days is irreparable
at current levels. He points out a lower downside target for SPY - check
it out.
Technical
Highlights: KATX, PWRM, CYCC
Power3
Medical Products, Inc. (OTC:PWRM) went from bad to worse today. James Brumley
pointed out that the stock had already broken the lower side of an important
wedge shape as of yesterday. With today's dip, PWRM has fallen under the
support it had managed to find earlier this week. Downside targets are
posed in the write-up.
Charting
Analysis of XEC, FRGB, and ARRY
First
Regional Bancorp (NASDAQ:FRGB) has been identified as the next big thing
in the recent resurgence of the regional banks. FRGB is making its second
upward thrust (the first one pulled back), suggesting the bulls are 'coming
back for more'. The suggested target would mean more than a double of its
current price.
Market
Update
Wow.
The best GDP growth rate since 2003 (+5.7%), and the market still can't
get any traction? Actually, I'm not surprised. Investors have been
'wanting' the market to go down for a while now, and the interpretation
of data can be bullish or bearish as needed. Rather than focus on the GDP
growth (which would be bullish), the market's focusing on Chevron's
and Honeywell's decline in profits (which is bearish).
And
that's not a joke either - the market is much less data-driven and much
more sentiment-driven than any of us care to believe. Anyway...
What's
next? The same as before. The market still has some excess it needs
to bleed off, and I feel it's going to do so by completing the move it
started a couple of weeks ago. A few things have changed - or at least
materialized - in the meantime.
The
target for the S&P 500 is still the 1025 area. That's almost horizontal
support from October's two lows, and more recently I've realized that's
about where the 200 day moving average line will be by the time the index
can reach the 1025-ish area.
Though
it's the first time the 200 day average will have been tested in this bull
market, I think in this scenario it will end up acting as support
- the interception will occur right around an 11.0% dip from the January
peak.... enough to call this a healthy, normal, and COMPLETE market correction.
(We may see a brief move slightly under it, just to create a little
extra doubt for investors at the time.)
As
for how and why I possibly think the market can actually go lower from
here...
In
short, the market's not scared to death right now. Investors were terrified
back on the 21st and 22nd, when the S&P 500 fell to 1091. Yet, now
that it's fallen under the next support level of 1086 and reached a low
of 1078, investors aren't quite as afraid.
This
is a hint (and an important one) that this week's selling isn't
one born of panic and hysteria.... this selling is calculated, moderated,
and strategic. As such, it's the kind of selling that's not apt to
experience any kind of quick snap-back rally.
As
evidence of that idea, I submit the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX. It went
ballistic on the 21st and the 22nd when the market started to shatter;
investors were freaking out. The market's still falling, but the lower
VIX since then says investors aren't freaking out right now - they're working
their way out as painlessly and as intelligently as possible.
The market won't likely hit a bottom until we actually see some sort of
spike in the VIX, which will be a capitulation of sorts. This ain't
a
capitulation.
I'm
sure there will be a bullish day or two in the meantime that casts doubt
on the outlook. And, obviously anything can and will eventually happen,
so that's not a guarantee (and I reserve the right to adjust the outlook
as needed). Based on what I see right now though, the move to the 1020-ish
area is the market's path of least resistance, as there's still some excess
optimism - and excessive pricing - that needs to be bled off.