In
this Edition...
Is Today
an Exit Opportunity, or an Entry Excuse?
New Trading
Ideas - SSLR, CLWR
Exit These
Trades - GSB, ARBX, TAM, OSP, AKE, SCLW, AMPL
Raise
Stops on These Picks - CAGC, BFR, MBI, SIM
Is
Today an Exit Opportunity, or an Entry Excuse?
I
hate to rain on a perfectly good parade, but I can't stress enough how
I don't think the next three months are going to be anywhere near
as bullish as the last three months have been, nor do I think they'll be
as bullish as most other investors seem to think they'll be based on today's
gains.
That's
a tough thing to say on day where stocks have made their best gains in
weeks,
with some indices up more than 3.0% for the day (or even more than 4.0%,
in the Russell 2000's case).
Why
the contrarian point of view?
I've
talked off and on lately about a lot of sentiment factors and underlying
depth (volume) factors, so I'm not going to rehash them here. I'll update
those ideas later in the week.
For
today, I'll simply describe my outlook as a hunch. Don't think for a
minute the professionals aren't selling into the strength being created
by all the little guys' buying. I'll side with the pros on this one,
and use today's gains as an exit opportunity rather than an entry excuse.
Look
for a more detailed discussion later in the week, but for now, I'm sticking
with the "Sell in May" advice.
However,
I'll still be picking some individual stocks that look like they could
resist whatever the market throws at 'em.
New
Trading Ideas
With
the market heading into what we think could not only be a turbulent period
but also a bearish period, we'll continue to recommend trades
on both sides of the market. Odds are at least half of them will do well,
and if we've picked the 'best of', more than half of them could
be profitable.
We've
got one long and short for you today.
Sunrise
Solar Inc. (SSLR)
If
the name rings a bell, it's because we actually traded
this stock back in early May. We bought it on May 1st at 59 cents,
and suggested an exit at $1.02 a few days later. Our reward was a 72% gain.
Like
we mentioned then, this is strictly a trade based on a fairly reliable
recurring pattern - SSLR starts to rally modestly on bullish volume, and
then accelerates right up to a bit of a blowoff top. Then, it sinks again
to reload for the next rally.
As
you can see, SSLR perked up again today, suggesting the move has begun.
The
size of the move has been diminishing each instance, so we don't think
we'll be able to do this indefinitely. We should be able to squeeze out
a couple more good trades though.
Clearwire
Corporation (CLWR) - short/bearish
It's
tough to bet against a stock that's fallen and fallen and fallen. Eventually,
it has to go back up, right?
Well,
no, not really and not necessarily anytime soon if it does.
Case
in point - Clearwire. The stock's not seen the light of day in months,
and just when it's looked like the worst is over, the rug gets pulled out
from underneath it. The odds have been defied thus far, so why would that
stop now?
Though
CLWR already has a few bad days under its belt, in the bigger picture,
it appears as if the stock is falling back from a longer-term peak hit
in early May. Shares have proven they can fall a lot farther than they
have with this bearish leg so far.
Action
Needed
Obviously
we can't hold every existing trade forever, nor would we want to. To clear
the decks for our new ideas, here are a few tickers we can clear off our
watchlist one way or another.
Let's
just make outright exits on.....
GlobalScape
Inc. (GSB) - We got into this one at $0.95, and it's currently at $1.02.
So, we don't have anything to complain about. I just think GSB's best shot
at a breakout was in early May, but the stock never got traction. Let's
take our small gain and go.
Arbinet-thexchange
Inc. (ARBX) - A severe lack of interest led to the eventual demise
here. It looked good in the beginning, but the buyers are nowhere to be
found now.
TAM
S.A. (TAM) - You gotta' like our 12% gain so far, but holy cow - this
thing's all over the place. It had been as high as $9.88 following our
$7.90 entry (hope you sold some then). Given its volatile nature, it's
just too distracting to keep it on the table.
OSG
America L.P. (OSP) - This short trade has gone pretty well for us.
Our short-sale at $8.01 and the current price of $6.70 translates into
a gain of 16.5%. It's stagnated the last several days though, so let's
make our escape before the bulls find it again.
Safety
First GIB PPN (AKE) - I thought I already said this once, though I
can't find any record of it, so.... let's bail on AKE. The trade's not
been good or bad; there's just not enough volume for us to fool with it.
SocialWise
Inc. (SCLW) - Remember when I said to protect
your gains by setting up a stop loss? Yeah, well. SocialWise proved
my point. The stock plunged from a peak of $1.02 a little over a week ago
to a low of $0.53 today. Fortunately SCLW is back up to 72 cents (my suggested
stop level), so if you're still in it, you can still get out profitably.
Ampel-American
Israel Corp. (AMPL) - I suggested this short trade as a hedge for an
otherwise net bullish portfolio. While I still contend we need bearish
hedges for the likely weakness over the nest several weeks, AMPL isn't
one I want to keep holding.
And let's
raise or lower your stops on....
China
Agritech Inc. (CAGC) - Nice. The current price of $1.75 isn't necessarily
leaps and bound above our entry at $1.53, but the persistence strength
has solidified the uptrend. I think we need to raise our stop to at least
break-even levels.
BBVA
Banco Frances S.A. (BFR) - I didn't get a chance to suggest profit-taking
back on the 12th when shares surged to a high of $4.73, and I've been regretting
it for most of the meantime. I got a reprieve today though. With shares
back up to $4.18, we're sitting on a 32% gain. Let's go ahead and set up
a stop here.
MBIA
Inc. (MBI) - Like BFR, I didn't get a chance to recommend taking profits
on MBI when it hit $7.73 on the 11th, which would have been a 27% win.
Sure enough, the stock pulled back. Today's move to $6.59 appears to be
the beginning of a new bullish leg though, so let's play some smart defense
now that we're in the black again.
Grupo
Simec SAB de C.V. (SIM) - I've been toying with the idea of just selling
this one, but today's move to $6.47 is close to taking the stock to yet
another new multi-month high. We're in at $5.57, giving us a 16% profit
cushion. So, let's stick with it and see where it goes... and simply apply
a break-even stop in the meantime.
That's
it for now. If there's a trade we didn't look at, it's because we don't
see any urgent action needed.