News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Market Update: Is Today an Exit Opportunity, or an Entry Excuse?
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

In this Edition... Is Today an Exit Opportunity, or an Entry Excuse?  New Trading Ideas - SSLR, CLWR  Exit These Trades - GSB, ARBX, TAM, OSP, AKE, SCLW, AMPL  Raise Stops on These Picks - CAGC, BFR, MBI, SIM  Is Today an Exit Opportunity, or an Entry Excuse? I hate to rain on a perfectly good parade, but I can't stress enough how I don't think the next three months are going to be anywhere near as bullish as the last three months have been, nor do I think they'll be as bullish as most other investors seem to think they'll be based on today's gains.  That's a tough thing to say on day where stocks have made their best gains in weeks, with some indices up more than 3.0% for the day (or even more than 4.0%, in the Russell 2000's case).  Why the contrarian point of view?  I've talked off and on lately about a lot of sentiment factors and underlying depth (volume) factors, so I'm not going to rehash them here. I'll update those ideas later in the week.  For today, I'll simply describe my outlook as a hunch. Don't think for a minute the professionals aren't selling into the strength being created by all the little guys' buying. I'll side with the pros on this one, and use today's gains as an exit opportunity rather than an entry excuse.  Look for a more detailed discussion later in the week, but for now, I'm sticking with the "Sell in May" advice.  However, I'll still be picking some individual stocks that look like they could resist whatever the market throws at 'em.    New Trading Ideas With the market heading into what we think could not only be a turbulent period but also a bearish period, we'll continue to recommend trades on both sides of the market. Odds are at least half of them will do well, and if we've picked the 'best of', more than half of them could be profitable. We've got one long and short for you today. Sunrise Solar Inc. (SSLR)  If the name rings a bell, it's because we actually traded this stock back in early May. We bought it on May 1st at 59 cents, and suggested an exit at $1.02 a few days later. Our reward was a 72% gain. Like we mentioned then, this is strictly a trade based on a fairly reliable recurring pattern - SSLR starts to rally modestly on bullish volume, and then accelerates right up to a bit of a blowoff top. Then, it sinks again to reload for the next rally.  As you can see, SSLR perked up again today, suggesting the move has begun.  The size of the move has been diminishing each instance, so we don't think we'll be able to do this indefinitely. We should be able to squeeze out a couple more good trades though. Clearwire Corporation (CLWR) - short/bearish It's tough to bet against a stock that's fallen and fallen and fallen. Eventually, it has to go back up, right? Well, no, not really and not necessarily anytime soon if it does. Case in point - Clearwire. The stock's not seen the light of day in months, and just when it's looked like the worst is over, the rug gets pulled out from underneath it. The odds have been defied thus far, so why would that stop now? Though CLWR already has a few bad days under its belt, in the bigger picture, it appears as if the stock is falling back from a longer-term peak hit in early May. Shares have proven they can fall a lot farther than they have with this bearish leg so far.    Action Needed Obviously we can't hold every existing trade forever, nor would we want to. To clear the decks for our new ideas, here are a few tickers we can clear off our watchlist one way or another. Let's just make outright exits on..... GlobalScape Inc. (GSB) - We got into this one at $0.95, and it's currently at $1.02. So, we don't have anything to complain about. I just think GSB's best shot at a breakout was in early May, but the stock never got traction. Let's take our small gain and go.  Arbinet-thexchange Inc. (ARBX) - A severe lack of interest led to the eventual demise here. It looked good in the beginning, but the buyers are nowhere to be found now.  TAM S.A. (TAM) - You gotta' like our 12% gain so far, but holy cow - this thing's all over the place. It had been as high as $9.88 following our $7.90 entry (hope you sold some then). Given its volatile nature, it's just too distracting to keep it on the table.  OSG America L.P. (OSP) - This short trade has gone pretty well for us. Our short-sale at $8.01 and the current price of $6.70 translates into a gain of 16.5%. It's stagnated the last several days though, so let's make our escape before the bulls find it again.  Safety First GIB PPN (AKE) - I thought I already said this once, though I can't find any record of it, so.... let's bail on AKE. The trade's not been good or bad; there's just not enough volume for us to fool with it.  SocialWise Inc. (SCLW) - Remember when I said to protect your gains by setting up a stop loss? Yeah, well. SocialWise proved my point. The stock plunged from a peak of $1.02 a little over a week ago to a low of $0.53 today. Fortunately SCLW is back up to 72 cents (my suggested stop level), so if you're still in it, you can still get out profitably.  Ampel-American Israel Corp. (AMPL) - I suggested this short trade as a hedge for an otherwise net bullish portfolio. While I still contend we need bearish hedges for the likely weakness over the nest several weeks, AMPL isn't one I want to keep holding.  And let's raise or lower your stops on.... China Agritech Inc. (CAGC) - Nice. The current price of $1.75 isn't necessarily leaps and bound above our entry at $1.53, but the persistence strength has solidified the uptrend. I think we need to raise our stop to at least break-even levels.  BBVA Banco Frances S.A. (BFR) - I didn't get a chance to suggest profit-taking back on the 12th when shares surged to a high of $4.73, and I've been regretting it for most of the meantime. I got a reprieve today though. With shares back up to $4.18, we're sitting on a 32% gain. Let's go ahead and set up a stop here.  MBIA Inc. (MBI) - Like BFR, I didn't get a chance to recommend taking profits on MBI when it hit $7.73 on the 11th, which would have been a 27% win. Sure enough, the stock pulled back. Today's move to $6.59 appears to be the beginning of a new bullish leg though, so let's play some smart defense now that we're in the black again.  Grupo Simec SAB de C.V. (SIM) - I've been toying with the idea of just selling this one, but today's move to $6.47 is close to taking the stock to yet another new multi-month high. We're in at $5.57, giving us a 16% profit cushion. So, let's stick with it and see where it goes... and simply apply a break-even stop in the meantime.  That's it for now. If there's a trade we didn't look at, it's because we don't see any urgent action needed.