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VOLUME
04: ISSUE 90
Trading
Alert: Informatica - Data In, Profits Out.
What
a lot of companies miss is that the proper manipulation of proprietary
data can mean the difference between a winner and an also ran. Or worse.
Informatica (NASDAQ:
INFA) is a very cool technology company and leading producer of
integration and business intelligence wizardry that helps customers improve
efficiencies, cut costs and ultimately makes them more streamlined, profitable
and responsive to employee and customer needs.
Sound
Boring?
Hardly. For investors, the metrics
of this company and the market look compelling to say the least.
The shares appear to be gathering
some traction following a sell off earlier this year. At what appears to
be a bottom at $5.50 in September, the shares began their incline and hit
$8 in October. A break above $8 would likely signal a new uptrend.
If I could pick an entry point
it would likely be a bit cheaper than current levels, say $7, but beginning
accumulation here and buying on dips, if they occur, makes sense.
Salient points:
Market cap $650 million
2004 projected revenues (as at Dec)
$217 million
2005 projected revenues $234 million.
Cash on hand $234 million or $2.70
a share
No debt
82 percent of outstanding shares held
by institutions
Projected 5 yr annual growth rate 15
percent-plus
Named 11th in 2004 (14th in 2003) of
the 100 top business intelligence vendors by leading trade magazine DM
Review--ahead of big boys EMC Corp, Computer Associates and PeopleSoft,
as well as 85 others.
Readers of DM Review--IT professionals,
the folks who use and recommend systems to their companies-- voted Informatica
the number 1 in data integration. Now that's an endorsement.
In INFA's case, I'm more interested
in the business, the sector and revenue growth than I am of earnings, although
the projected numbers are reasonable. For fiscal 2005 the projected earnings
are around 25 cents, which translates into a p/e of about 33 times against
today's share price level of $7.50. The sector --business software and services--average
p/e is projected at 26 times. But the magic is that when this sector cranks
and companies' ramp up enterprise spending, the growth can be impressive.
Data is forever and ever.
We feel that INFA makes a great vehicle
for exposure to a sector that has loads of growth potential. Data is the
currency of business now, and the morphing into information that can improve
sales, cut costs and the rest is no longer a luxury, it is essential. Without
some form of data capture and manipulation, it's not too outrageous to
say that a company will ultimately fail to prosper and grow. Or just fail.
And data isn't only the province
of the Wal-Marts anymore. Informatica did a deal recently with prestigious
DePaul University. Check this out from a recent press release:
Informatica software is helping
university administrators retain enrolled students by identifying those
who are eligible to re-register and uncovering why they have not. The school
also intends to identify at-risk students through analysis of past grades.
In the human resources arena, DePaul is using Informatica to integrate
data from its PeopleSoft system in order to better understand teaching
costs by degree program and college, identify course demands so it can
act proactively in scheduling classes, and trend popular degrees in order
to ramp up relevant instructional resources.
And this example is just one
of a huge number INFA has and will likely continue to win.
Business is data. Data drives business.
The best products that can make systems and procedures as well as sales
and marketing better, win.
Cash is Good
I like cash, lots of cash. Especially
when there's no debt. Each share of INFA has $2.71 or 36 percent of the
current $7.50 price in cash. That means you can buy the business for around
$4.80 when the cash is stripped out. Works for me; given the growth potential
of both the company and the sector.
This is a quality company in a sector
that, even though corporate spending vacillates, is likely to be a major
winner over the medium to long term. While there is likely a trade in here
should the shares breach $8, long-term investors will likely be happy with
both the potential and share price performance.
Data storage and business intelligence
needs will just get bigger and more complicated. Thankfully, investing
in the sector appears to be the easy part.
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