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VOLUME
01:
ISSUE 19
Small Cap Digest Trading Alert:
Corning Incorporated
Christmas is coming early this year
as the markets are "ON FIRE". The dow is above 10,000 and Nasdaq
is above 2,000. How low our expectations have become.
The recent activity in the markets are bringing flashbacks of the late
90's. At this pace we might start seeing some IPOs again. Well,
let's not get too ahead of ourselves here.
One the sectors picking up steam
is the fiber optics arena. This was the only game in town for most
of 1999 and 2000. Unfortunately, for JDS Uniphase (Nasdaq:JDSU)
and
Corning
(NYSE:GLW)
the slowdown in capital expenditures by telecom companies the past year
have left their toll on the companies. However, it looks like Corning
will is coming out of its funk.
The company has broken out of its
50 day moving average. Corning has not traded consistently above
this indicator since February of 2001. There is a potential breakout
for this stock if it can hold above $9.00-$9.50 and consolidate
before it pushes definitively over the $10.25 mark. A breakout
above $10.25 will bring in a flux of trading that will likely push the
stock towards the $12.00 area. There is around 30 million
shares short on this Corning so a break out may create a buying frenzy.
Some other things to consider is
that Corning recently raised $600 million in seven-year senior unsecured
convertible debentures. This was a lot of money raised which means
that lead managers on the deal, J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs
may have a few positive words for the company. The deal was started
on Nov. 8th and subsequently buy ratings were initiated by Roth Capital,
Thomas Weisel, and Needham & Company. The timing seems
awfully peculiar and looking into the future a few upgrades and positive
mentions may be in store. As always the individual investor will
be the last to know. That is unless you read the SmallCap Digest.
Besides the technicals on the company,
business is looking like it has bottomed. A report by Salomon
Smith Barney on November 16th indicated that purchase orders for the
March '02 quarter may be placed in December. Two carriers are rumored
to be the customers. Keep in mind that two carriers placing orders
doesn't mean the sector will rebound. There are too many fiber companies
around and there is no doubt a few of them won't be here next here.
The key to investing in this sector is buying the leader and buying the
highest quality company.
Some may argue that JDS Uniphase
is the leader but at over 11.5x 2002 revenues the company is trading at
an absurd premium to Corning's 2.2x 2002 revenue estimates. Let's
also not forget that Corning isn't some fly by night company. This
company has been around since 1851 when Armory Houghton bought an interest
in a glass company and moved it to Corning, New York. In 1876 Corning
Glass Works became the new name of the company and later in 1989
Corning Incorporated was adopted. This company is as "old economy"
as it gets but the resiliency of the management team and its employees
have turned a normal glass company into a powerful force in the telecommunications
industry.
The bottom line comes down to supply
and demand. For those of you who lost cable modem access due to the
troubles with Excite@Home the move back to 56k is a miserable experience.
As long people demand high speed internet access in their homes and their
office, Corning will continue its trend to becoming one of America's finest
companies. Sure, things won't be like it was in the "good ol' days"
when the company was growing like gangbusters but then again that sort
of environment was a bubble. When the bubble burst it suffocated
many companies but at $10 per share Corning offers a breath of fresh air.
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