News Details – Smallcapnetwork
With All Eyes on Syria, Investors Missed This Big Clue
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

You know, while it's as clear to me as it probably is to all of you that Syria was the media's hot button today, there's something else equally important I want to point out to you. Remember earlier in the year when we named a handful of theme-based, investment-worthy ideas? One of them was 3D printers, which prompted us to put 3D Systems (DDD) front and center as a trading suggestion. Good thing we did too, as the stock soared 50% over the next three months. But, we closed that trade as well as the industry-wide bullish call out in late July, feeling like it had run its useful course. We also named the water infrastructure industry as a buy-worthy idea, albeit a long-term one. America's water infrastructure is, frankly, falling apart. Over 800 water mains break every DAY in the United States, and the rest of our leaky pipes and water conduits are in the same shabby condition. It was this deterioration trend - and the $100 billion needed to stop it - that prompted our pick of Northwest Pipe (NWPX) a few weeks ago. While the stock's been volatile, we've made net progress with it, and we still like the longer-term undertow here. It was our megatrend from March 13th, however, that's made its way back onto the radar today. That trend is the growing need for cybersecurity measures. The catalyst for voicing our bullishness at the time was news that Michelle Obama had some of her credit card information hacked the day before, though that was hardly the only reason - it just brought a problem to the forefront. The bigger reason we wanted to put stocks like Checkpoint Systems (CKP), Fortinet (FTNT), and Palo Alto (PANW) at the top of our watchlist was because the First Lady's hacked information underscored much bigger cybersecurity problems, like the fact that BP (BP) fends off more than 50,000 cyberattacks per DAY, and that each successful cyberattack costs the victim an average of just under $9.0 million to clean up the mess. Great, but why am I making the point to you guys again now? Because, while all eyes were on Syria and the impact a conflict there may have - particularly on the price of oil - it would have been easy to overlook the news that got shoved down beneath the fold... news of the New York Times' website as well as Twitter both being temporarily "taken down" yesterday by a cyberattack. Though this has yet to be confirmed, the group claiming responsibility for the attacks calls itself the Syrian Electronic Army. The Syrian Electronic Army has claimed responsibility for prior cyberattacks too. No link to the Syrian military has been verified, but given the timing of the cyberattacks, it makes you wonder. More than that, it underscores how nobody seems to yet have a good handle on protecting themselves adequately in the digital world. Folks, it's not going away. Indeed, the need for cyberdefense is only going to grow, indefinitely. At the beginning of the year, the global cybersecurity market was already projected to drive $68 billion in revenue for 2013, and grow by 8% per year for the next five years. That's huge in itself, but those outlooks were made before several high-profile security gaffes surfaced in the meantime. Some are now saying it could be a $120 billion business by 2017. That being said, I think the speed of the industry's growth is going to be very rapid through 2014 now that we've seen a few too many successful security breaches. So, there's some urgency here. If I could only pick one of the three names I mentioned above, I'd probably pick Fortinet. Checkpoint Systems shares have actually been the best performer of the three, but I like the consistent revenue growth numbers Fortinet has been putting up for several years now. It's also the only profitable one in the bunch. Problem: It's also an expensive stock, priced at 55 times its trailing earnings. Its forward-looking P/E isn't much better. Not that it's any cheaper, but revenue growth has been very reliable for PANW too, and should keep growing at a brisk clip. Take a look at the earnings trend chart from cnbc.com. You may just have to deal with the frothy prices here. Of the three - despite the fact that its shares are the only ones actually in an uptrend - Checkpoint is my least favorite. You know what though? This is a case where I'm going to defer to the collective community (that's you guys) and hope enough of you are experts on the matter and can provide some of the insight we all need to make a wise choice. So, how about it? Are there any IT managers out there with a finger on the pulse of the cybersecurity problem, and know which of these companies is best positioned to solve that problem? You don't even need to be an IT professional; any well-informed investor is welcome to chime in. Post your thoughts at the website under these companies' tickers. And for everybody, let's go ahead and vote yay or nay on these three names. All you have to do is go to the sight and pick 'Rate XXX a Buy' or 'Rate XXX a Sell.' I'm willing to bet by tomorrow we'll have a clear winner among those three cybersecurity stocks. Just click on FTNT, CKP, or PANW, and do your thing. Now, about this market.... The NASDAQ's Still Got a (Slim) Fighting Chance We explained to you yesterday how the severity of Tuesday's dip would likely lead to a dead-cat bounce. Well, that's what we got today. Like we also said on Tuesday, that rebound effort wouldn't be one we could take very seriously, and sure enough the effort faded later in the session. When it was all said and done, the S&P 500 only regained about 0.3% of yesterday's 1.6% plunge. Volume wasn't exactly solid either. My interpretation is simple - the bigger downtrend is still in place. We could even post another day or two of gains, and the downtrend would remain intact. The bulls had a great opportunity to get things going again today, and the effort fizzled before it ever even got going, telling me the buyers just don't have their heart in it. Just to keep things fresh (and relevant) I want to switch my look at the market today for you to the NASDAQ Composite rather than the S&P 500. They both tell the same story, but the NASDAQ's got something important I want to show you - the support it's still finding at 3576. That's where it found support in mid-July, and where it's been finding a floor the past couple of days. It's also where you'll find the lower 20-day Bollinger band. Technically speaking, the Composite's still got a fighting chance at a rebound as long as that line holds up. It's a long shot, however, especially considering the Dow and the S&P 500 have already pulled under their corresponding support levels. I just wanted to show it to you here because a break under 3576 could be catalytic, and also to show you how the NASDAQ's Volatility Index is trending nicely up and and into its upper Bollinger band. Not good. Bottom line? I'm still bearish, though fully acknowledging the bulls could push the Composite as high as 3643 without actually quelling the brewing weakness.