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VOLUME
03: ISSUE 09
CNN: Real
War, Real Fast.
I'm sorry to report that it's all
war, all the time. And, that will likely continue to be the case for a
while to come.
The networks and cable stations are
practically tripping over each other to bring us every American view. One
can practically see the enemy, live, in the crosshairs. Personally, I think
it's too much information. However, the stats seem to have me in the minority.
ABC.com notes a 50 percent increase
in its site traffic. RealNetworks (RNWK), which we spoke of last week,
had to bring on extra server capacity to deal with that network's-and other
sources'-- online streaming traffic. RNWK's shares also benefited: their
price has risen 12 percent in a few days, from $3.85 to $4.30. The volumes
(up 400 percent) RealNetworks has had to deal with haven't been seen since
9/11.
War has replaced sex as the most
googled topic on the Internet. The current environment is certainly beneficial
for online news in general and RNWK in particular. We'll see how many of
those users stick around when-if-- tensions wane. It has become apparent
that online news is a force to be reckoned with and RNWK has established
itself as the deliverer of choice for streaming video. As the troops move
closer to Baghdad, I suspect those viewing records will be shattered, especially
if, God forbid, things get ugly. Uglier, that is.
Turn out the lights....?
Perennial software hanger-on Corel
(CORL) looks to be set to disappear as Microsoft took a major spanking
on its 20 percent position in the company, selling it to Vector CC Holdings
for around 56 cents a share. Corel has an agreement with Vector to sell
the company for $1.10 a share if Vector likes what it sees, due diligence
wise. If a better offer comes along-105 percent of the Vector offer to
Corel shareholders-and its 20 percent can be sold for $1.25 a share, Vector
won't get in the way. I guess not. Shame, really, to see Corel potentially
vapor, but this story just hasn't gotten any better in years. At least,
if it consummates, shareholders can move on and staunch the bleeding. For
those who can't wait, Corel shares have moved up slightly in the last couple
of days, to 92 cents.
A WINS WINS situation.
Lots of reader mail this week and
one company that caught our attention was SM&A (WINS). The Newport
Beach company provides integrated proposal management and program support
services. The hook is that the company swims in the timely verticals of
the defense, homeland security and aerospace industries. Apparently the
next largest competitor measures just 20 percent of SM&A's size, with
a market cap of $108 million.
SM&A shares have moved up quite
nicely to $5 and change from $3 last October/November. A pullback to the
$4.50 area --which would be a 50 percent retracement of its high --would
be a good entry point. That said, the company has consistently made higher
highs and higher lows, which evidences a decent chart pattern. Interested
parties may want to pick up a little now and a bit later should the shares
pull back. The company has no debt-a minimum requirement these days.
Fundamentally, the company looks
intriguing. Revenues were around $55 million for fiscal 2002, up 18 percent
over 2001. Analyst coverage is limited, but one lone gun has the shares
projected to earn 46 cents in 2004-a price/earnings of 12 times against
the current $5.50 price. SM&A has guided that revenues could grow by
40 percent in the first quarter 2003.
SM&A boasts that over twenty
years of proposal support. Its clients have logged an 86 percent win rate
on contracts totaling $222 billion. Good story and the numbers look good.
Just be a bit careful of betting the farm after the recent run-up A few
acres, maybe. In this environment even good stories can get scorched.
Duck and Cover
Nothing has changed in the big market
picture. Baghdad looms. It could be a cake walk or quicksand. The market
continues to be headline driven and the main headline should be: "Investors
Cautious, But Picking Away At Good Situations." Keep some cash at the ready
and don't chase stocks that may pop on good war progress. Good or bad war
progress will have little to do with the fundamentals in the long term.
Investor confidence at 62.5 percent is still at a decade low, which tends,
ultimately to be a precursor to better markets. The trick, of course is
predicting exactly when that will occur. You won't. No one will. Regarding
investing, GE's ex-Chairman Jack Welch once said something to the effect
of: "You can't hit the ball if you don't swing the bat". Or was that Yogi
Berra? No matter. You take the point.
While those sentiments are true enough,
also make sure you learn to duck.
Keep the email coming: editor@smallcapnetwork.com.
And, continue to support the troops.
D I S C
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