News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Real War, Real Fast.
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Dow Jones 8229.88 -50.35 1:30 pm PST, March 26, 2003  NASDAQ 1387.45 -3.56 For info, visit access.smallcapnetwork.com S & P 500 869.95 -4.79 To be removed, please click here Russell 2000 368.18 -3.61 VOLUME 03: ISSUE 09  CNN: Real War, Real Fast. I'm sorry to report that it's all war, all the time. And, that will likely continue to be the case for a while to come. The networks and cable stations are practically tripping over each other to bring us every American view. One can practically see the enemy, live, in the crosshairs. Personally, I think it's too much information. However, the stats seem to have me in the minority.  ABC.com notes a 50 percent increase in its site traffic. RealNetworks (RNWK), which we spoke of last week, had to bring on extra server capacity to deal with that network's-and other sources'-- online streaming traffic. RNWK's shares also benefited: their price has risen 12 percent in a few days, from $3.85 to $4.30. The volumes (up 400 percent) RealNetworks has had to deal with haven't been seen since 9/11.  War has replaced sex as the most googled topic on the Internet. The current environment is certainly beneficial for online news in general and RNWK in particular. We'll see how many of those users stick around when-if-- tensions wane. It has become apparent that online news is a force to be reckoned with and RNWK has established itself as the deliverer of choice for streaming video. As the troops move closer to Baghdad, I suspect those viewing records will be shattered, especially if, God forbid, things get ugly. Uglier, that is. Turn out the lights....? Perennial software hanger-on Corel (CORL) looks to be set to disappear as Microsoft took a major spanking on its 20 percent position in the company, selling it to Vector CC Holdings for around 56 cents a share. Corel has an agreement with Vector to sell the company for $1.10 a share if Vector likes what it sees, due diligence wise. If a better offer comes along-105 percent of the Vector offer to Corel shareholders-and its 20 percent can be sold for $1.25 a share, Vector won't get in the way. I guess not. Shame, really, to see Corel potentially vapor, but this story just hasn't gotten any better in years. At least, if it consummates, shareholders can move on and staunch the bleeding. For those who can't wait, Corel shares have moved up slightly in the last couple of days, to 92 cents. A WINS WINS situation. Lots of reader mail this week and one company that caught our attention was SM&A (WINS). The Newport Beach company provides integrated proposal management and program support services. The hook is that the company swims in the timely verticals of the defense, homeland security and aerospace industries. Apparently the next largest competitor measures just 20 percent of SM&A's size, with a market cap of $108 million.  SM&A shares have moved up quite nicely to $5 and change from $3 last October/November. A pullback to the $4.50 area --which would be a 50 percent retracement of its high --would be a good entry point. That said, the company has consistently made higher highs and higher lows, which evidences a decent chart pattern. Interested parties may want to pick up a little now and a bit later should the shares pull back. The company has no debt-a minimum requirement these days. Fundamentally, the company looks intriguing. Revenues were around $55 million for fiscal 2002, up 18 percent over 2001. Analyst coverage is limited, but one lone gun has the shares projected to earn 46 cents in 2004-a price/earnings of 12 times against the current $5.50 price. SM&A has guided that revenues could grow by 40 percent in the first quarter 2003.  SM&A boasts that over twenty years of proposal support. Its clients have logged an 86 percent win rate on contracts totaling $222 billion. Good story and the numbers look good. Just be a bit careful of betting the farm after the recent run-up A few acres, maybe. In this environment even good stories can get scorched. Duck and Cover Nothing has changed in the big market picture. Baghdad looms. It could be a cake walk or quicksand. The market continues to be headline driven and the main headline should be: "Investors Cautious, But Picking Away At Good Situations." Keep some cash at the ready and don't chase stocks that may pop on good war progress. Good or bad war progress will have little to do with the fundamentals in the long term. Investor confidence at 62.5 percent is still at a decade low, which tends, ultimately to be a precursor to better markets. The trick, of course is predicting exactly when that will occur. You won't. No one will. Regarding investing, GE's ex-Chairman Jack Welch once said something to the effect of: "You can't hit the ball if you don't swing the bat". Or was that Yogi Berra? No matter. You take the point. While those sentiments are true enough, also make sure you learn to duck. Keep the email coming: editor@smallcapnetwork.com. And, continue to support the troops. D I S C L A I M E R : The SmallCap Digest is an independent electronic publication committed to providing our readers with factual information on selected  publicly traded companies. SmallCap Digest is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer. 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