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VOLUME
06: ISSUE 8
Feature:
Finally Time for Telecom - Ride the Wireless Wave.
The
growth in the broadband and wireless businesses are more than making up
for the accelerating slide in the traditional phone business. Both Verizon
(NYSE: VZ) and AT&T
(NYSE: T) reported
earnings this week and the part that stood out was the growth of, you guessed
it, their respective broadband and wireless businesses.
Both companies, especially VZ,
look like decent accumulations at these levels.
I will mercifully refrain from a
detailed description of the sector or Verizon and AT&T's businesses
as, frankly, if you've never heard of these two behemoths and don't know
what they do, you should probably stop reading right here.
Here are the links for the earnings
releases. Saves both of us some time. Verizon and AT&T earnings summary:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/060126/telecoms_earnings_wrap.html?.v=1
And did I mention that both tend
to pay out very nice dividends?
Verizon Bottoming...Shares (or options)
should be accumulated.
Our technical work shows a change
of direction for the shares from the previous decline. For those who like
the tech jargon, the recent trading activity shows the ultimate double
repo using the 3x3 Displaced Moving Average (DMA). We're calling for bottoming
to occur in VZ shares--it may well have occurred already-- and for aggressive
traders or long-term investors, the time appears ripe to get on board,
in our opinion. Stop loss a VZ trade at $31.
VZ has 51 million cell phone subscribers,
just a scant three million shy of leader Cingular, of which AT&T owns
60 percent. BellSouth (NYSE:
BLS) owns the balance. Kind of an oligopoly, as the three pretty
much dominate this rapidly growing market.
Aggressive
short-term traders could utilize options. The VZ 06 April 32.50 calls look
nifty if you can get them under $1. For those with a longer horizon, the
07 Jan 30 calls at $3.50 look a fair deal. And remember, options are for
aggressive traders wishing to participate in a rise if we're correct and
can go to zero if they don't work out. They need to be watched, traded
and profits taken. These aren't the province of buy and hold investors.
Two words you never want to see in the same sentence regarding your option
purchase: "expired worthless".
For those who like to search out
lower risk vehicles, the Dow Jones US Telecom iShare (AMEX:
IYZ) might be an alternative as just about 40 percent of the holdings
of this ETF are made up of VZ and T.
The performance over the last year
has been, well, lousy--down 2.5 percent--but if our call is correct, that
could well be the lower risk way to go. Trade volumes are OK, but relatively
low compared to popular ETF's in other sectors. The technical picture looks
similar to the VZ chart, so there may be some decent juice coming in the
price.
Yes, gentle reader, the IYZ is also
optionable but the trade volumes are spotty and we don't like suggesting
options where the lack of liquidity can work against you instead of keeping
markets fair. Who wants to be the only trade in the mix? Here's the link
in any case: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=IYZ.
Scroll across the top for expiry months.
Pretty
much the same story with what used to be SBC and is now all things AT&T
again. Recent earnings were snappy to say the least and it looks like the
new entity is hitting on all eight cylinders. Long-term investors and those
interested in dividend/growth-oriented situations should be especially
keen on the new AT&T.
Pretty simply, the recent trading
action denoted that the shares should have backed up after the 5/8 retracement,
but instead pulled back only slightly and scooted past the resistance level
with reasonable ease. Chart looks very constructive and while perhaps not
as nifty a picture as VZ, the shares look likely to move higher. Establish
a stop loss for T at $24.60
Everyone either hates telecom or
has been waiting for it to move. We like it when that happens. There has
likely been some reasonably large accumulations as these giants came off
there bottoms and/or declines and timing still looks reasonable for those
who want to be early along with the smart money.
Our options pick would be the T April
25 06 calls. They quickly moved to $1.30, Friday, and could back up a bit
if the stock consolidates Monday. I'd really be interested in them closer
to $1 a contract. The link is here. Scroll across the top for expiry months:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=T&m=2006-04.
While we are convinced the sector
has legs, the timing is the trick shot; could already be underway, might
get moving soon or we could be a bit of time away. Imagine the truth is
somewhere between already and soon.
Finally, earnings projections for
2006 for VZ and T are $2.56 and $1.91 respectively. That throws off p/e's--again
respectively--of 12.5 and 13.5 times--pretty compelling. I would surmise
that continued momentum in the broadband and wireless businesses could
well force the multiples and share prices higher based on the rapid and
ongoing growth of the broadband and wireless sectors.
Need more evidence? My 22-year old
son doesn't even have a landline phone in his apartment. Seems wrong, somehow.
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