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VOLUME
05: ISSUE 68
Feature:
Novelos - Use Pullback to Acquire Shares.
We
strongly feel that the recent pullback in Novelos Therapeutics (OTCBB:
NVLT) from $4.50 to $3.20--for no reason we can ascertain-- represents
a great strategic opportunity for investors to accumulate shares or add
to long-term positions. We haven't seen these prices since just prior
to its substantive Phase 1/2 completion announcement on August
8th for its NOV-002 compound treatment of NSCLC. (non-small cell
lung cancer)
As well, this recent share price
pullback has been on low volumes, which is good news for those investors
who have been waiting to accumulate a position in this unique cancer therapy
company.
Quiet
periods can be the best time to pick up great smallcap stocks at great
prices. We feel that the shares of Novelos are no exception at current
levels. We expect more substantive developments from NVLT soon.
Although the trading of Novelos has
been tight, the shares made a decent run from $3.20 to roughly $4.50 after
the company announced Phase 1/2 results in early August. The chart shows
that the recent pullback to $3.30 on low volume represents a .382 retracement
of that run and should it pullback further to the .618 point that puts
it just slightly below $3. Given how hard the shares were to buy above
$4, supply will most likely loosen up on this pullback.
Bids have been strong, albeit volumes
low, but as we've mentioned, the liquidity will likely improve as the company
pops up on more radar screens. What is apparent is that current holders
obviously like the potential, as they seem reluctant to sell.
As we mentioned in our initial Novelos
Trading
Alert and subsequently on August
8th, we strongly feel that the potential for Novelos is very compelling.
With excellent Phase 1/2 results for its NOV-002 treatment for non-small
cell lung cancer (NSCLC) to enhance the efficacy of chemotherapy--among
other events-- the company is progressing extremely well as it executes
its solid clinical development plan.
Price Compelling When Compared
to Peers
Novelos has a current market cap
of roughly $90 million, which is considerably lower than a large number
of its peers. Given the success of the NOV-002 compound in Russia and the
company's solid clinical development plan timetable, we feel that there
is significant room for that valuation to expand markedly when compared
to other companies in the same developmental space. We'll briefly mention
two similar Phase 1/2 companies--although there are many--to position Novelos.
You're welcome to research both companies further. We believe that at Novelos's
current stage of development, these two companies give an indication of
what investors might expect for the share price as NVLT executes its clinical
development plan.
The
first is Ariad Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:
ARIA) currently trading at $8.45 with a market cap of $450 million.
The Company is developing a comprehensive approach to patients with cancer
that addresses the greatest medical need - aggressive and advanced-stage
cancers for which current treatments are inadequate. Over the last year
the shares have moved from $4 to over $8 and have an all-time high of $14-$15.
Ariad is currently in Phase1/2 trials for its small molecule drug AP23573,
which has shown excellent promise in shrinking cancer cells and tumors.
The second is Keryx Biopharmaceuticals
(NASDAQ: KERX),
which is focused on the acquisition, development and commercialization
of novel pharmaceutical products for the treatment of life-threatening
diseases, including diabetes and cancer. The company currently has an oncology
compound KRX-0401, which is in Phase 2 clinical development as well as
an oral heparinoid compound for the treatment of diabetic nephropathy,
KRX101, which is now in Phase 3/4 development. The market cap for Keryx
is north of $600 million and the shares trade for $16.50. A year ago the
shares were $10. In February 2003,there was virtually no volume and the
shares were at $1.
Neither of these companies boasts
significant revenues, but obviously has garnered the interest of investors
who have moved the share prices up substantially. We believe that given
the low market cap of NVLT against its peers, there is a great deal of
potential for the share price to rise as it moves to come in line with
companies at roughly the same stage of development.
And,
as the NOV-002 compound is in use in Russia--marketed by an unrelated company
as 'Glutoxim'--investors can have good confidence that NVLT has excellent
prospects to receive eventual approval in the US. Of course there are no
guarantees, but the successful Russian history is a factor missing in the
clinical development arsenals of most small biotech companies. Novelos
has over 30 patents filed with several already granted in the US, Europe
and Japan.
There's more...much more...
As well, Novelos's NOV-205 compound
has shown promising results in the treatment of Hepatitis B and especially
C. Chronic hepatitis C is currently a $2 billion market and expected to
rise to $12 billion by 2012. China is of particular interest as Hep B and
C is virtually epidemic in that country. With NVLT's unique relationships
in Russia, it is able to carry out trials and research to determine a development
profile to backstop submissions to the regulatory agencies in the US and
elsewhere.
Novelos has many other facets and
potential uses for its compounds including the treatment of radiation sickness
due to a nuclear accident or 'dirty bomb'-type terrorist attack. As well,
NOV-002 has shown promise in opening up the use of chemotherapy for previously
chemo-resistant types of cancer such as ovarian.
Read our previous pieces as noted
above and get familiar with Novelos. It's unique approach and solid clinical
development plan should be of keen interest to those biotech investors
looking for great growth potential.
We firmly believe the shares deserve
a prominent place in the smallcap biotech section of a portfolio.
We
Value Your Feedback
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Send 'em on over: Editor@smallcapnetwork.com
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or inquiry, please send it to our physical address:
TGR Group, LLC
3525 Del Mar Heights Rd #334
San Diego, CA 92130
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