News Details – Smallcapnetwork
The Good News and the Bad News
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Hope everyone had a nice weekend. Horse racing fans had to be excited as I'll Have Another decided to have another and take the Preakness. Let's see if he can muster enough energy and intestinal fortitude to win the Belmont and become the first horse in 34 years to win the ever elusive Triple Crown. That would be very exciting and more importantly provide racing with some much needed positive publicity. The Sport of Kings sure could use a boost. It's been a shame to see this wonderful sport struggle in recent years due to discretionary spending being down in the face of a struggling economy. Advertisement EXPOSED: Mainstream Medicine's Deadliest Conspiracy For the first time, mainstream medicine's deadliest conspiracy has been EXPOSED. Finally, this video is the 'shot heard around the world' the establishment prayed would never come. Powerful interests are hell-bent on minimizing the damage it is doing to corporate medicine's profit machine. Before it's banned, watch the full video here. Advertisement So I go away for a few days to watch my youngest son graduate college and the whole market goes to hell in a hand basket. Our assumption of a tradable rally at 2550 on the NDX didn't play out obviously. We fell a little short with our suggested level of a nice bounce. However, today the market appears to be doing its best to fight off the selling pressure and move this market higher. We've had some very interesting comments from some of our Members providing their pivot points on where this market will bottom, at least in the short-term and everyone appears to be all over the map with no real consistent opinions as a whole. One reader even suggested QE3 by the Fed. Now that's some healthy speculation! Options expired last week and that may have had something to do with the aggressive selling as market makers love to get investors sucked into calls and then figure out a way to have them expire worthless. Facebook's IPO was met with significant selling last week, which didn't prove positive for market sentiment but I had a strong feeling that FB's trading on day one wasn't going to favor the bullish argument and today is no exception as well. I had so many people texting and calling me asking me if they should buy FB and my answer across the board was a big fat NO. I just didn't anticipate that maybe FB's rollout in the public market would weigh on sentiment across the board. Personally, I don't think Greece has had much of anything to do with the negative sentiment which is what the media is blaming it on but time will tell. I've include a weekly chart of the NDX here. The good news is the NDX closed right smack on the 25X5 DMA Friday which was also the 3/8 retracement level of the complete rally that started back in October of last year. This was no surprise after the NDX blew right through the 2550 level, which was a perfect 3/8 retracement of the move that started back in late November of last year. Maybe we should have used the 2500 as the common support level but hindsight is obviously 20/20. It is what it is at this point. All we can do from here is try and determine if we've got a tradable level for a nice short-term rally here or not. My analysis tells me yes. However, the bad news is if this market can't find a base right now, this is going to raise a serious red flag for us and suggest that something is terribly wrong with the underlying economic tone for the months ahead. The big question now is... is the recent weakness a mere logical pullback in the bigger picture or is it an early sign that the market has seen its best days for a while? I've also included a monthly chart of the NDX here that eliminates all of the recent noise of late. You'll notice here that the NDX has simply pulled back to the 3X3 DMA and suggests that so far, everything is still intact for the market to move higher. It takes more than a month's worth of weakness to suggest a bear market over the long haul and if you trust and believe in displaced moving averages, we're still OK. At this point, I'm holding my June calls of the QQQ's with my stop loss set just behind Friday's close. If the NDX convincingly cracks Friday's close, I'm out and will take my lumps. This market has shown its ability to snap back quickly and exercise some resilience for quite some time now, so until proven otherwise, we'll use last week's close as a short-term bottom for now. If you're strong enough to continue putting some long-term money to work now, look for companies that have been outperforming the rest of the market for the last two weeks. Stocks that have either been bucking the trend, or haven't been selling off as much on a percentage basis than the rest of the market may prove to be the smartest place to park some money for the long haul. In any short-term bearish environment like we're in now, it becomes increasingly important to realize you can't just throw money around into popular names just for the sake of doing so. You've got to look for ideas that are showing you at least some strength in the face of weakness, which would suggest those companies are more desirable than just stocks that continue to move in tandem with the market. We're going to spend a significant amount of time in the weeks ahead hunting for ideas that fit this bill. If you or anyone you know have specific stocks that fit this criteria, feel free to shout out and let us know. We'll be working hard to bring you some ideas we think you could benefit from over the next good while. Stay tuned. Just a quick thanks to all of you who have provided your expertise and feedback of late, it's good to know we've got a lot of Members who truly understand the market and realize that there's an island of opportunity in the middle of every difficulty.