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VOLUME 07 : ISSUE 103
Lock
in Gold Gain, Biotech Trade Still 'Brewing'
In
This Edition...
1)
Time To Take Gold Profits
2)
ENGM: Right Stock at the Wrong Time?
3)
CEL-SCI's Back in the Limelight
We've
got updates on today on three of our prior trading ideas. One's
about an idea that went well enough to lock in a decent gain, the next
is about an idea that went not-so-well (so far), and the last look is at
a longer-term idea that's still brewing up. So, odds are at least part
of today's newsletter merits a little reading.
However,
you may also want to take a look at the sidebar (on the right) about Stockgroup
Information Systems (OTCBB:
SWEB). We wouldn't have known this yesterday morning when they
released the good news about a partnership with Raymond James , but the
last three days have been the highest-volume three days we've seen for
SWEB since late June. We can attribute Friday's volume to the news,
but it doesn't explain Wednesday's and Thursday's big volume. It has me
curious - that's all.
Gold
Shining Too Brightly Now?
I
hope all of you were reading our blog
back on September 24th. If you were - and took a little action based
on our commentary - you most likely made a nice gain between now and
then. At the time, gold futures were trading at 721.0. I set a target price
of 810.0 that day...a potential gain of 12.3% (or much more if you applied
the leverage of futures). Anybody 'in' will be glad to know gold reached
a high of 811.0 on Friday. If you still happen to be 'in', I
think I'd go ahead and lock down this short-term winner. Gold could
still go higher, but it's pretty overbought right now. A little management
of the risk-vs-reward dynamic could be prudent.
For
those of you who don't have a commodities trading account, I also mentioned
the StreetTracks Gold ETF (NYSE:
GLD) as a way of tapping into the uptrend. It moved from 72.28
on September 24th to a high of 79.90 yesterday...a 10.5% gain.
I know
that's probably not going to mean the difference between you buying a yacht
or not (unless you put a few million into the trade), but it ain't bad
for six weeks worth of work. You can thank me later.
I think
the lesson to be learned has nothing to do with gold , or even trading.
The lesson here is just 'read the blog'. There's a lot more
there than there is here in the e-mail newsletter, including trading ideas
like GLD. Plus, it's interactive; you can post your own comments
and questions. We publish and respond to every legitimate piece of feedback
we get on the blog, so chime in at will.
Enigma:
Right Stock, Wrong Time?
You
know, I have to call 'em like I see 'em...and I don't think I like what
I see right now when I look at Enigma Software's (OTCBB:
ENGM) chart. Things got off to such a great start when we issued
our opinion back on October
6th. But, they faded just as quickly just a few days after that.
I think
there were two basic challenges being faced here. The first is just
limited trading activity. Low volume here may be steering some people away,
for the time being. I believe the other (and probably bigger) issue
is that the market just doesn't 'get it' yet. Enigma's 100% web-based
revenue model is brilliant and creative, but being ground-breaking may
have left other investors a little unsure of what they were really investing
in. The good news is, both issues can be overcome. The question is, 'when?'
More
importantly, our suggested stop of 11 cents was violated on October 22nd
when the stock hit 9 cents. Being a disciplined trader (even if nothing
else), I take those kinds of things seriously. I hope you do too. If
you do, then odds are you're also on the sidelines of the ENGM game right
now. That may be the best place to be for now.
In
all fairness to the stock - as well as our readers - I just think
it was a case of the right stock at the wrong time. Enigma's fiscal and
strategic story is a good one that should be told; it just hasn't
been told to enough people yet. For that reason, we're going to keep tabs
on the chart and the company. I feel this one has the potential to be
great. Like I said in a recent blog entry though, it just looks like
the market wants to see more results first. So be it.
The
bitter irony in all of this - on Friday, we saw huge volume, with an open
and close near the high for the day despite an abnormally-deep (relatively)
low of 6 cents. Between the hammer-shape for the chart and the spike in
volume, part of me is now thinking 'pivot'. Could it really be the
beginning of an upside move? That still remains to be seen, which
means I'm remaining on the sidelines for now. I'll let you know if I see
something compelling. Personally, I still think it's more a question of
'when' than 'if', but my conviction isn't strong enough right just yet
to bet on it.
Is
Something Brewing With CEL-SCI?
I
really think something's brewing with CEL-SCI (AMEX:
CVM). They were pretty quiet for most of Q3, and our coverage of
the stock was equally minimal. Over the last two weeks though, they
overhauled their website, and were the focal point of a major research
report.
The
new
website is a complete resource for all-things-immunotherapy. Despite
the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel now coming into view for
many immunotherapy developers, there's surprisingly little coherent information
on the topic. CEL-SCI's site explains the ins and outs of this segment
of the biotech industry, with their Multikine being the focal point.
I don't
want to get on my soapbox today about taking a look at the new site for
yourself, since I already made my soapbox speech in the blog back on October
30th. (See? Another reason to read the blog on a regular basis.)
I'll just say this...the comprehensive site puts CEL-SCI in the role
of being an immunotherapy authority. I think that's a long-term positive
for the stock.
Anyway,
the newest research report on CEL-SCI was done by Crystal Research Associates.
It's available for free at the Crystal Research site (crystalra.com).
Though fairly lengthy, I think it would be a good investment of time if
you're serious about finding a fairly-untapped small cap opportunity. The
report also includes a ton of details many of you have asked about
in the past...things like patent information, marketing strategies, and
a comprehensive explanation of where they fit into the industry (and history)
of immunotherapy.
While
we're on the topic, I want to refer you back to the October 20th edition
of the newsletter...'Big
Pharma, Small Biotech - Who Needs Who?". It's an op-ed commentary about
the paradigm shift I see coming for the pharmaceutical world, but features
CEL-SCI as an example of the new R&D model I think will eventually
become the norm.
Have
a great weekend everyone. It looks like the next edition will be coming
out on Monday evening or Tuesday morning.
We
Value Your Feedback
Got comments, questions or suggestions?
Send 'em on over: Email
the Editor
If you wish to send a written request
or inquiry, please send it to our physical address:
TGR Group, LLC
4653 Carmel Mtn Rd Suite 308 #402
San Diego, CA 92130
Stockgroup
Partners With Raymond James
With
almost all of the recent news from Stockgroup Information Systems (OTCBB:
SWEB) being about the stockhouse.com site - which caters to retail
investors - it could have been easy to forget the big fish the company
is fishing for. Today's news of a partnership with Raymond James is a perfect
reminder of their big-ticket offer...which is providing market-related data
to financial institutions to pass along to their retail customers.
The
last time we really looked at this revenue-bearing service up-close and
personal was in January.
As of then, 12 of Canada's top 30 brokerage firms were Stockgroup clients,
while 4 of the United States' top 15 newspapers were clients. A handful
more were added between now and then, but I don't think any of them were
as big as today's Raymond James deal.
What
you didn't read in the press release was this - Raymond James is among
the best brokerage firms in the country...and they're only considered a regional
firm. They've got $35 billion in assets, and it's one of the biggest 2000
companies in the world. Their research/advice is more than just top-notch
too. A couple of years ago, a study showed the returns from Raymond James
& Associates' stock recommendations ranked first among 26 leading firms
over the past 10 years. Kanbay Research Institute named Raymond James one
of the top 10 financial service companies in the United States among those
favored by U.S. consumers. Translation: Raymond James is among the
creme of the crop. For them to choose Stockgroup over any other option
(and they certainly had them) speaks volumes about what Stockgroup can
provide.
So
if the product is so great, why have we heard so little about it over last
10 months? Great question. Think about the target market here. This offer
isn't pitched to the average retail investor who may be willing to pay
$10 per month for a real-time quote service. What we're talking about here
are six-figure (maybe bigger?) deals done by corporations for use on a
massive scale. Plus, the programming and logistics alone in these partnerships
can take months to iron out. In other words, the sales cycle here is a
long one, because institutions need months to decide and implement this
kind of stuff. I think that's why we haven't heard much about it.
Now,
I don't want to be too presumptuous, but I have to think there are more
brokers out there also considering Stockgroup's technology - Raymond James
just happened to be the first to sign a deal. Why do I think this? Two
reasons. First, because Stockgroup has already signed multiple brokers
as well as multiple newspaper sites. Second, I think there are other firms
test-driving Stockgroup's stuff because the company has made it clear from
the beginning that's the plan. I just don't see them wasting time or energy
on something they don't plan on rolling out in a huge way.
As
for the dollars behind the deal, I can only speculate that it's a six-figure
opportunity. Stockgroup doesn't really provide details like that, for competitive
reasons. However, based on my familiarity with the company's numbers, that's
my educated guess about what this could fiscally mean. For a company doing
about $15 million, a couple of deals like these can go a long way.
Here's
the full press release.
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The Small Cap
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SCN is owned and operated by TGR Group, LLC ("TGR"). All companies are
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with a view toward maximizing the upside potential for investors while
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