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3 Top Trading Ideas From Our Experts
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Howdy folks. How was your Tuesday? It was pretty lethargic for stocks as the Thanksgiving break approaches and traders head to the sidelines. Yet, we've still got lots to talk about. Let's just dive into it, beginning with a quick run-down of today's economic numbers. We'll let the charts do most of the talking. Economic Update We're going to assume you already heard it, but if not, last quarter's GDP growth rate is now estimated to be 3.9%, up from the first estimate of 3.4%. There's still one more revision to go, which will be unveiled sometime in early December. Odds of any major changes from that 3.9% are pretty low though. Here's a graphical representation of the long-term trend. We're off from Q2's 4.6%, but this is still a strong number. In fact, it's the strongest six consecutive months we've seen since before the recession. We also got a dose of real estate news... real estate pricing news, to be specific. The Case-Shiller index and the FHFA Home Price Index both showed a little progress for September, although the upward trajectory for both continues to level off. Even so, the broad real estate trend is an encouraging one. Last but not least, we saw a surprising dip in consumer confidence this month. The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence score slipped from October's reading of 94.5 to 88.7 this month. It's odd, as the market rally that undid all the damage done in early October has since been extended through the bulk of November. And, considering the majority just elected their favorite government officials at the beginning of the month, one would have expected everyone to be feeling good about where things are going. Consumers just aren't feeling it though. It'll be interesting to see if the third and final reading for November's Michigan Sentiment Survey mirrors the drop in consumer confidence. Tentatively the MSI level is at 90.5 for the current month, up from October's final score of 86.9. While anything can change with tomorrow's release, we don't foresee any major changes on this front. Things may not be perfect out there, but if we had to give the economy a grade, we'd still have to give it a solid B. Movin' on. Ideas Galore You know, we mention it from time to time, but we probably can't say it often enough - there's enough great insight and enough stock trading ideas posted at the site every week to keep you as busy and as "loaded up" as you could ever want to be. Today was no different, but for some reason today we got even more great commentary than we usually get. I want to direct you to the best of the best, just to give you a chance to see what I'm talking about. First, while gold and oil are the two commodities that have gotten the most attention from the media of late, those aren't the only commodities out there. More important, the price plunge for those two commodities isn't the only price plunge directly or indirectly affecting stocks. Bryan Murphy made a great point about how weak corn and wheat prices was helping a handful of food producers. Case in point? Post Holdings (POST), for one, which was up 5% today after reporting last quarter's earnings. That wasn't the best part of Murphy's write-up though. Murphy showed us a grain supply chart that is not only stunning, but could have lingering impact for a year or more on Post and its peers. Any solar power stock fans out there? John Udovich took a fresh look at First Solar (FSLR) on Tuesday in the shadow of the stock's 30% decline since its September peak. Although the decision to not launch a yieldco in addition to delayed projects has made FSLR tough to own, time heals a lot of wounds, and a lower price heals a lot of other wounds. It may be time to put First Solar back on the radar, beginning with John's thoughts. Last but not least, I always like Chris Vermeulen's stuff. Most of the time he looks at the broad market, but sometimes he'll throw in a stock trading idea as well. Today he pulled double-duty, looking at the broad market's bigger risks and then following that up with a trader's perspective on General Motors (GM). Let's just say I'm convinced by what he had to say regarding GM. With all of that being said, if you'd still like more trading ideas, the easiest, fastest, and best way of getting them is by becoming a subscriber to out free stock pick alerts service. It really is what it sounds like - free stock trading ideas delivered to your phone and/or e-mail address (the text messages get there much faster). There's no catch, and no credit card needed. The Elite Opportunity simply wants a chance to prove to you they can help you get more out of the market. I don't know how much more room there is on that particular mailing list, but I'd suspect it's getting full. Sign up today for the stock alert service before it's too late. Here's how to do it, or just cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/pages/SCNEOL/v1/ Don't Hang It Up Just Yet With the S&P 500 ending the day only lower by about 0.12%, on top of another relatively low volume day, I think it's safe to say the holiday is effectively here even if it's not technically here. Honestly though, I wouldn't hang it up for the week just yet. Things have a way of getting real exciting right when it seems like they shouldn't. And, though I think we can count on tomorrow being a fairly quiet day, I've got a feeling Black Friday - even if it's a half-day for the market - could be surprisingly lively. We'll be publishing both days no matter what happens with the market, mind you, as we always have more than enough stuff to talk about. In fact, we've got some special projects we've been working on recently we'll try to at least partially work our way through within the next few days. One of those projects is a look at what corporate profits in the United States look like when taking stock buybacks out of the picture. A bunch of people have lamented the only reason we've seen such big earnings growth is that it's being spread out across fewer and fewer shares. I think I've found a data source that can ferret out the numbers we actually need. Also in the lineup is a reality check of profit margins. You may already know that Q3's margins for the S&P 500 may be at record-breaking levels when all is said and done, but there's a HUGE footnote to go along with that data. Anyway, we'll talk more about it when the time comes. For today, just know stocks pretty much did jack-squat. Don't get used to it though. Things are still more than a little tense with this overbought and overvalued (but still-going-strong) market. .