Between skirmishes in Iran, a reprisal of tensions in Ukraine, disappointing retail sales for May, in addition to an overbought market that hinted at a correction yesterday, it comes as no real surprise stocks struggled today. On the other hand, it's still not like stocks are past the point of no return. The only thing the pullback over the last couple of days has done is burn off the overbought condition that developed a couple of weeks ago. This isn't a reason to get hysterical.
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To give credit where it's due, it was today's edition of the SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity that inspired much of today's message. John Monroe always has something great for EO members in his newsletter, and today was no exception. I'm not going to simply repackage what he said, but what he said really did put things in perspective for me, and it got me thinking about what you guys need to hear now.
But, first things first. As you can see on the daily chart of the S&P 500 below, stocks took a sizeable hit on Thursday. Even with the hit though, we've yet to even retrace our steps to the most generous of support levels. That's the fancy way of saying the pullback hasn't even touched the 20-day moving average line yet, so we're still very much in a technical uptrend.
The real wrench in the works - sort of - is the VIX, which I was talking with you about yesterday. Specifically, we mentioned to you that as long as the VIX didn't go berserk like it did in March and April, it could start trending higher and the S&P 500 could begin a bigger downtrend. It didn't happen that way though. The VIX bolted upward, and may well end up gapping up a couple more times and getting back into a situation that's actually bullish for stocks. It's not healthy in the long-term to sidestep needed corrections, but whoever said stocks did the rational, healthy thing?
There's still a chance the VIX could calm down and simply walk past its ceiling around 13.0 and keep going, which would be bearish for the market in the bigger picture. I'd be surprised if traders have that much self-control here, however. It seems to be an all or nothing environment, and investors are more worried right now about what's going to happen within the next few days rather than worried abut what will happen within the next few months. That's why things are so choppy here.
So what's the call? This is where the sage wisdom from John Monroe is best brought into the discussion. In today's Elite Opportunity newsletter he wrote:
"Nobody seems to have any significant context right now for where a short-term tradable top may exist, other than simply playing a bit of a contrarian guessing game. Sure, we're entering the teeth of the Street's vacation season, volumes have been low and the markets have gotten long in the tooth but that's hardly any significant context, especially since the latter two points have been the case for a while now.
I bring this up because when you've got all of the major indexes running into no man's land, all you've really got left are overbought/oversold indicators, key expansion levels and some other technical tools to suggest the markets may turn..."
He's right. In fact, he's exactly right. There are a lot of well-thought-out predictions floating around in the market's ether right now, but when you get right down to it, nobody truly knows what's supposed to happen next because we've not seen anything quite like the current situation before.
This isn't to say there aren't some people out there who are right (and right for the proper reasons) about what's coming. Honestly though, I'm just not sure anyone needs to be pounding the table about their opinion at this point. This includes me too, although I suppose my recent opinion has been more of a non-opinion - I'm waiting for the context Monroe says is still missing, even though I'm still expecting a decent-sized correction.
The good news is, we'll get a big dose of context piled on us real soon if the S&P 500 can actually be pushed all the way back to the support area around 1900. Until then we're keeping most of our powder dry. Just so there's no confusion though, if the market makes a rapid plunge over the next couple of days and the VIX races higher out of control, it's entirely possible we could get a subsequent market bounce before getting too far underwater. The irony? A slow drift in a downward direction could end up lasting a long while, chipping away at stocks until we've made a full-blown correction. Yes, pacing is still half the battle.
By the way, if you want to get real handle on the broad market and how you can trade it in the short term as well as the long term, the Elite Opportunity is second to none on that front. I can't recommend the service enough. Here's how to get a free two-week trial, or cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1/
2 Cures For the Summertime Blues
I don't know how many of you newsletter readers are also regular visitors to the SCN website, but for those of you who aren't checking out smallcapnetwork.com on a daily basis, you're missing out on some really good stuff. (We put a lot more commentary up at the site than we do here in the newsletter.) There was one post from a couple of days ago that really stuck with me though, not just because it was interesting, but because I think it's an opportunity worth passing along to you.
Some of you may have seen James Brumley's thoughts regarding the brewing rebound not from one but from most of the major social media stocks like Twitter (TWTR), Facebook (FB), and LinkedIn (LNKD). I don't want to put words in Brumley's mouth, but I think I'm safely paraphrasing his premise when I say (1) social media stocks tend to move as a herd, and (2) social media stocks are capable of moving independently of the rest of the market. And, as it just so happens, he's right - there's a notable degree of bullishness from FB, TWTR, and LINKD right now the rest of the market isn't enjoying.
So what? Well, if it's not been made clear yet, this summer could be a choppy one for the broad market, as it often is. Odds are good the go-nowhere action is going to infect most sectors and industries too, meaning it could be tough to make progress with most stock picks for the next four months... give or take. The trick is to spot the few pockets of strength with broad participation. From what I can see right now, social media names are one of those few bright spots, rebounding as a group following the group-wide drubbing they all took over the course of the prior few months.
Sure it's more sentiment, hype and mood-following than investors would normally find compelling. I've got news for you though - nobody can afford to be picky about the trends they're willing to play now. The technical setup from these three stocks is a good one, and we know they like to move as a herd. If the market is giving us this action at a time when there's not a lot else going on, let's use the opportunity.
James wasn't the only contributor to come up with a trading cure for the summertime blues, however. John Udovich took a good, thorough look at all the work Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has been going of late, and surprise! The chip company has quietly been reinventing itself into a key player in the next generation of digital devices. If you want to know where it's going, just take a look at Udovich's write-up. There was something else that caught my eye with AMD in the meantime I want to look at here in the newsletter.... something saying it too could be a summertime winner.
In the very short run we can see Advanced Micro Devices shares are overbought and likely due for a dip. When we take a step back and look at the longer-term weekly chart of AMD, however, a bullish pattern stars to become evident.
How so? After a miserable 2012, AMD has made a long string of higher lows. It's NOT made higher highs though, instead repeatedly testing a technical ceiling at $4.50. The end result is an ascending wedge, with not much room left to navigate within it.
What's more than a little possible now is Advanced Micro Devices shares getting pushed past the $4.50 mark and all that pent-up buying interest being unleashed in a hurry. And, it could all happen within the next few weeks, making AMD one of the better summertime-surprise possibilities. I'm not saying it will happen. I'm just saying I love the risk/reward scenario there, particularly with AMD's fundamentals getting back into shape.
I know neither of those cures for the summertime blues is a firm, official buy signal, but it doesn't mean you can't put 'em in your back pocket for yourself. If you'd rather just have someone give you the specific entries and exits though, these guys have more open trades than we do in the newsletter's portfolio right now... and a couple of their picks look like they could become homeruns.