Well, that was weird. We got the bounce we were due early on in Thursday's trading. We just didn't hang onto it. Nevertheless, the shape of today's bar suggests a short-term bottom is being made, so we're going to stick with our theory from yesterday and suggest planning on a near-term advance. It's too soon to say we're prepping for a long-term rebound though.
If it seems like we've been doing more candlestick analysis lately than we normally have in the past, you're not crazy - we have been doing more of it lately. There's a perfectly good reason why we're doing more of it now though... we're getting more relevant candlestick clues now than we have in the past. One of those clues came today.
I know we've talked with you about this before, but just as a refresher, a "hammer" pattern is a single bar that is (no surprise here) shaped like a hammer, where the open and close are nearly identical, and both form at one extreme end of that day's bar. That's not the important part though. The important part about a hammer pattern is how it indicates a transition from a bullish to a bearish environment, or from a bearish to a bullish environment.
Care to guess what we got across the board today? Hammer patterns. And not just from the stock indices either. The VXN and the VIX also made hammer patterns, suggesting today was a short-term pivot point for them too. Here's the S&P 500 and the VIX...
... and here's the NASDAQ Composite with the VXN.
We still don't have any good reason to think any bounce from here is going to turn into a long-term uptrend; there's just too much resistance above to count on any follow-through. For the S&P 500, that ceiling is at 1965, while the NASDAQ's is at 4465. All the same, a rally back to those levels would be a decent scalp or swing trade. We can reassess what's in the cards once we test those levels... if we test those levels.
Our guess is, we still have one more low to make before finding a firm bottom and restarting the longer-term uptrend. That's not changed since yesterday. As for where that low is going to be, however, is apt to be more a case of how it's made rather than where it's made.
We'll deal with it when the time comes. For now we've got a couple of other items on the agenda, including a renewed look at some possible stock picks.
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New Trades Brewing Up
OK, we don't officially have any new trades for you today, but there are a handful of ideas John Monroe gave to Elite Opportunity subscribers we're going to start considering for ourselves. No names/tickers yet - we'll let you know when the time is right. We do want to go head and talk about what we're seeing and what we're waiting on though.
The newest swing trade the EO put on the table is the stock represented by the daily chart below. It had been trashed the two trading days before today, topping off a steep decline that started way back in mid-August. Today's bar was a strong reversal clue, however, suggesting an end to the selling and the decisive beginning of a rebound. The tall bars today and yesterday underscore the scope of the turnaround.
It's not the daily chart I'm so stoked about though. Here's the same stock in a weekly timeframe. As you can see, past revisits of the 200-day moving average line (green) have resulted in strong moves to higher highs; this dip looks like a great buying opportunity.
I don't want to risk wading in just yet, as we don't enjoy a luxury Elite Opportunity members do - we don't have the luxury of getting into or out of a trade with intraday alerts. We'll have to wait until it's safe (and proven) on an end-of-day basis. Still, this setup has a ton of potential.
That was a short-term trade John mentioned today, but he also issued a new longer-term trading idea in the Elite Opportunity service on Tuesday.
Honestly, I'm still not sure when - or even if - I'll be passing along the EO's long-term trading ideas to you the same way I occasionally share a short-term pick. But, if for some reason enough time has passed and it wouldn't be unfair to divulge a pick or two, I suppose we could.
In the meantime, I'll show you a chart of the new long-term play Monroe bought in the Elite Opportunity portfolio today. I'm not so interested in the chart of the stock itself, but the earnings trend. In the bigger picture, the bottom line has been improving, and I'll add that next year's EPS line should start to ascend again. Analysts expect per-share profits to grow 22% this year, and 22% again next year. And, from what I've seen, I have no reason to doubt this company is going to meet those lofty goals.
There's yet-another short-term possibility on the radar. John didn't mention it today - it was actually an idea he floated a couple of weeks ago. I've kept it handy though, and it may actually end up being the first of the three names in question here today to actually get the official green light from me. The weekly chart of this stock is below, and it may look familiar.
What we're (still) waiting on is a strong, decisive break out of the converging wedge pattern. What I'm impressed/encouraged by is how this stock has NOT given up ground over the past three to four weeks even though the broad market has. If this stock is holding its ground in a lousy environment, just think how well it could do in a decent environment.
Anyway, the clincher for a breakout would be a move above its recent horizontal ceiling, best illustrated with this daily chart.
The bulls keep knocking on the door. Sooner or later, the market should answer. Once the door is open, look out above.
I know it can be a little annoying to not know which stocks we're talking about. Like we mentioned to you though, we have to be extra careful about which stocks we suggest since trading on and end-of-day basis can be a lot trickier than being able to get into and out of a trade in the middle of the trading day. We have to be extra careful, as we rarely get to start a trade out with a margin of error.
Of course, if you'd like to get all these trading ideas in real-time - before they take off - the easiest and best way to do so is by becoming a subscriber to the Elite Opportunity newsletter. John Monroe will even send you text alerts for the ultra-time-sensitive stuff. Here's how to get a free two week trial. Or, cut and paste this link: https://www.smallcapnetwork.com/?vmpd_ckstr[click_track]=Newsletter&vmpd_ckstr_redirect=/pages/SCNEO/v1