Welcome back to the trading week, one and all, and perhaps more important, welcome to the beginning of the first quarter's earnings season. Alcoa (AA) got the ball rolling after the market closed today. We're going to take a look at Alcoa's numbers in a bit, but those results aren't actually the most important earnings report on our radar today. That honor belongs to Staffing 360 Solutions (STAF), which should post its numbers sometime early tomorrow. In fact, let's just start today's edition there. Pencil It In You may recall Staffing 360 Solutions gave us a preview of its projected top line in early March, calling for its fiscal Q3 revenue (ending in February) of $43 million. That was exciting growth, but we were and still are more excited about the numbers the company couldn't project then... gross profit and EBITDA. Both are also growing, and at a pace that looks even faster than the company's top-line growth. Then again, that's the whole point of a roll-up strategy... more profits through greater scale. Whatever the case, Staffing 360 Solutions will be hosting its quarterly conference call tomorrow morning at 9:00 am EST to flesh out those results. You can listen in on that call. It'll take place at 9:00 am EST, and can be accessed by dialing (877) 407 -0778 in the United States, (800) 756-3429 within the UK, or (201) 689-8565 internationally. Or, you can just do what I'm going to do, which is listen in online at http://www.investorcalendar.com/event/174915 . A playback of the teleconference available until April 26th by dial (877) 660-6853 within the United States or (201) 612-7415 internationally. Use replay ID number: 13634703. As for Alcoa's numbers, they were... ok. The profit of seven cents per share was much better than the expected two cents per share, but revenue of $4.95 billion missed estimates of $5.14 billion. While revenue fell short, demand for its products was not only ahead of forecasts, but demand for aluminum is on pace to reach record levels this year. That makes for a perfect segue into our next section. More Clues Are Falling Into Place Even if you only read the SCN newsletter occasionally, you'll probably know one of our recent hot buttons has been the slow demise of the U.S. dollar, and the fact that the U.S. Dollar Index is now teetering on the edge of a huge breakdown. It got a little closer today. Here's the chart. The first layer of support at 93.8 was touched today, and so far has held up as a floor. The fact that we're even testing the support level, however, speaks volumes. The bigger line in the sand is still 93.3, and we've seen both of these floors reverse several downtrends in the recent past. One of these times, though, they're not going to be able to do so. Instead, they're going to fail, let the U.S. Dollar Index break below 93.3, and unleash a technical selloff. It wouldn't be crazy to prepare for that possibility now. Here's the full-screen version of the chart, which puts things in a much deeper perspective. Anyway, while a great deal of the discussion of late has focused on the relationship of the dollar and crude oil prices and specifically, the timing of the greenback's meltdown and the subsequent recovery in crude prices, I'm starting to think we're focusing on the wrong thing as a proxy for commodities. That's my long way of saying there's a good chance commodities could rebound without oil participating in that rally. I don't know to what extent you've noticed this, but as much bullishness as crude oil has mustered of late, it's still not been a terribly impressive commodity. Cotton prices are up 7% since late February. Lumber prices are still up 25% from January's lows even with an 8% tumble from last month's peak. Platinum prices are up 21% from mid-January. Coal prices are up 4% since November's lows. Not all of these are earth-shattering moves, but by commodity standards, some of these are big, and telling. Yes, crude oil is still up more than 30% from February's lows, and that's a big move too. I'm telling you though, crude oil has become a political and economic weapon, and its movement is arguably the least important commodity to watch as a measure of a rebound in commodity strength. So what's the strongest? A tool we haven't looked at in a long time, but a tool we're going to keep close tabs on for the next several weeks. Ever heard of the Baltic Dry Index? If you've been reading the SmallCap Network newsletter for a year or more, it should ring a bell. It's the average daily charter rate for the kinds of boats that explicitly DON'T ship crude oil. These ships have huge storage tanks and compartments to transport things like coal, grains, fertilizer, gravel, etc. You know... things that are dry, and sold in bulk. Well, take a look at the Baltic Dry Index since mid-February. It's up 130% from that low. Don't get too excited yet - we've seen the BDI push up and off that falling support line before, only to move to lower lows. This is an interesting "tell", however, in that it indicates what people are actually paying to ship commodities. As long as it's moving higher, that's bullish -- in a real, not just theoretical way -- for commodities in general, and dry bulk in particular. It's not tweaked or volatile thanks to oil gamesmanship either. Heck, Alcoa just confirmed real demand for at least one non-oil commodity was firming up again. And to answer the next question, yes, a weaker U.S. dollar and the subsequent increase in commodity prices does more good for commodity producers than is bad for commodity users. Stick around to see how this story unfurls. I've got a feeling most commodities are about to see better days, even if oil itself doesn't. And There It Is Unfortunately, we don't have a whole of time or room left today to get into the nitty gritty of Monday's market action, but we'll make time to insert a chart simply because you need to see what happened. Take a look. It was a "just barely" situation, but the S&P 500 closed just below its 20-day moving average line today... for the first time since February. Maybe it means nothing. Maybe the bulls will take charge again tomorrow. From an odds-making perspective though, this certainly seems to make things tougher on the bulls, and easier for the bears. This is one of those times you really need some pinpoint guidance DURING the trading day rather than after it. There's a trade buried in today's action somewhere, though not necessarily a bearish one. If you're looking to take advantage of the brewing volatility that's finally started to surface today (rather than it taking advantage of you), this is the time to become an Elite Opportunity. John Monroe and his team can not only quantify the odds we were talking about above, but they know exactly how and where to pull the trigger to make a play on those odds. OK, that's it for today, but do keep an eye on things this week. With the S&P 500 now officially in a downtrend and the VIX knocking on the door of a key breakout above its technical ceilings, it's time for the bulls to put up or shut up. I've got a feeling which one it's going to be, but this is one I'm going to ultimately defer to the Elite Opportunity service on. Here's how you can too.