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VOLUME
05: ISSUE 79
Feature:
NASDAQ Setting Up. Novelos Pullback. Coverage Changes.
NB:
Keep an eye on your email box this Friday, for a great new idea in
the realm of biometrics.We think you'll find it not only interesting but
also a superior short and long-term trading opportunity.
The challenging September-October
market period is predictable as usual and, while not really crappy,
most trading action has definitely been lackluster. While the NASDAQ does
appear close to a rally point, we feel that a snick more downside/consolidation
is in order.
Since the NASDAQ COMP peaked at the
beginning of August, there have been two further failed rally attempts,
each halting at lower respective highs. We believe the next stop is the
2000-2016 level, should the market take out the June support at 2050. Once
it hits there, there will likely be increased fear and a lot of towel throwing
as investors turf out stocks. We could then see a decent year-end rally
should the market move to the 2000 level, which isn't far from here, especially
if the decline holds at that level. This period of the year seems to be
acting in a pretty consistent fashion and the result will likely be a decent
improvement once the weak hands are shaken out.
Novelos Pullback
In a perfect world, good companies
would do nothing but have rising share prices based on their potential
and improving fundamentals. Of course, that rarely happens. Time, material
developments combined with the robust and ongoing participation of a growing
number of investors is really the only path to rising prices. Even with
that said the path is rarely smooth or predictable in the short term, even
when a company has strong products, potential and prospects.
Such is the current case with biotech
Novelos (OTCBB: NVLT).
A read of our archived
pieces on the company will leave investors with little doubt that
the long-term potential of the company is compelling to say the least.
The fact that the shares have pulled back to roughly $2.35, while annoying,
doesn't bother us. The price may even move lower given the vagaries of
the market and the increased volatility while the indices consolidate as
we mentioned in the previous NASDAQ update.
In
our opinion, NVLT shares accumulated in the $2-$2.50 level will likely
yield superior returns over the next 12 months.
Ever since we began covering NVLT
the erratic volumes have tended to exaggerate moves both up and down. While
those volumes are increasing allowing investors better opportunities to
trade the shares, pullbacks such as that we are currently experiencing
tend to last longer and get to extreme levels. Technically, we would like
to see the shares stay above the $2.60 level. With the shares currently
at $2.35, without a resultant bounce, the chart shows us that the next
stop could be roughly the $2.00-$2.20 level-- a return to June pricing.
Given all the news since that
period, it is apparent to us that while the share price may have weakened
investors have an opportunity to pick up stock at depressed prices here
and on any dips to augment a position for future gains.
We would reiterate our direction
October
2nd to read, if you haven't already, Cohen Research's exhaustive
report on Novelos here: http://access.smallcapnetwork.com/news_images/novelos.pdf
The company has and is embarking
on a series of institutional investor road shows to get the story out and,
as we have noted often, has a strong calendar of clinical development milestones
that it is and will continue to execute. The recent Phase 1/2 results for
NOV-002 for the treatment of Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) is merely
one in a string of substantive developments on the road to commercialization.
As well, the company is working--and
we expect news soon--on the efficacy of NOV-002 for the treatment of radiation
sickness as well as more information regarding its NOV-205 compound's effectiveness
for patients with Hepatitis B and especially C.
The
NVLT story is both solid and compelling. The current pullback --and frankly
any more weakness that may result-- we see as an opportunity for long-term
investors to strap on a company that has both the products and potential
to deliver great returns over the next 12 months, if not before.
Over time, investors who use share
price weakness to accumulate a position fare better than those who let
the weakness use them.
Re-arranging Coverage.
As you've noticed, SmallCap Digest
has begun bringing our readership some new --and we feel-- very exciting
trading and investment ideas for your consideration. And there will be
more.
To that end, and only to make room
for these new names, we are dropping coverage of two stocks that have yielded
very nicely for the readership; Biophan and MIV Therapeutics.
Biophan (OTCBB:
BIPH) is a stellar stock and the future potential remains enormous.
We brought you the shares in December 2003 at 35 cents. The shares are
currently $2.25. That's more than a 500 percent return, not including the
many trading opportunities that appeared over that two years.
MIV Therapeutics (OTCBB:
MIVT) appeared in readers' email boxes in March 2005 at 34 cents.
Currently $1.52 that represents roughly a 350 percent return. MIVT also
has immense potential and we would encourage investors to continue to watch
the company.
Any decisions to buy or sell shares
will now be down to you. We are confident that both companies have stellar
potential and futures, but in the interest of keeping the ideas coming,
we must make these adjustments to our coverage.
We
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TGR Group, LLC
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