Inspired by today's - and this week's - big gains? Don't be.... at least not yet. While the recent bullishness is impressive, it's not been enough to do investors any real good. In fact, the only thing it's done is confirm we're still in an ebb/flow pattern that isn't taking the market anywhere at all. We'll take a detailed look at the annoying chart below, and figure out exactly what it's going to take to get us out of this rut.
Despite the broad market's problem, we are seeing one group continuing to quietly get traction. In fact, I'm deeming the wireless stock group an outright 'buy'..... again. I think you'll agree with my rationale below.
Following that we'll visit some of the community's recent comments and trading ideas. On the docket for today's edition are Veeco Instruments (VECO), Cardium Therapeutics (CXM), Washington Mutual (WAMUQ), Select Comfort Corporation (SCSS), and more.
Reality Check: Don't Get Excited Yet
It's not that we haven't seen a market this fickle before. I just don't remember the last time it was this fickle for this long. Since May (and really since February's bottom), active investors have been willing and able to stop and turn on a dime without ever letting their foot off the gas.
These 'all or nothing' environments can wreak havoc on our psychology as well as our portfolios, yet clearly they don't do the market any real good ....bearishly or bullishly. As a testament to that notion, as of today we're right back where we were three months ago, with no more clarity now than we had then.
That's my indirect way of saying despite today's strength, I don't trust this buying effort any more than I trusted the selling effort last month (and I never trusted any of the media's pundit-opinions of either).
Fact is, this bounce was pretty much on cue, shaping up at key support levels. For the S&P 500, the big floor was 1042 (dark, dashed), though I can't help but think the propinquity with the lower 50-day Bollinger band played a role as well.
There's another 'fact' behind the current situation though... we're still not over the humps we need to get over if we can justify any bigger-picture bullish opinion. As I've said about 9 million time over the last few weeks, all the indices are stuck in a range, and the upper edge of that range (red, dashed) at 1130 has been a strong ceiling the whole time - it's not to be dismissed.
For the S&P 500, the ceiling as at 1130 (red, dashed), but I've got a hunch the upper Bollinger band (orange) is going to step up to the plate and act as resistance when push comes to shove. Or, who knows? The 100-day moving average line (gray) may quell the rally before we even get to test the theory - it's been THE rollover catalyst with the last two peaks. Oh, and it's also where the rally was halted today.
Point being, for the same reason we didn't want to over-react to August's selloff, we don't want to read too much into the current rally; there's still a lot of work to be done here.
Sector Call - Wireless
As promised a few weeks ago, I'd like to continue pointing out industry and sector trends as they emerge and become trade-worthy or investment-worthy. Why the hyper-detail? Because details matter.... a lot. It's estimated that 40% of an individual stock's success is a result of the strength of its peer group (as opposed to the individual company's merits). Ergo, picking the right sector is half the battle.
Today's budding industry trend isn't a new one to you; I've been voicing my bullishness on the wireless sector for months. It's just worth reiterating now, as the S&P 1500 Wireless Index is getting traction again.
You may recall my mental line in the sand for this chart was 114 (green), where it had hit a ceiling twice over the prior fifteen months, but finally managed to punch through in June... when I started pounding the table again.
Though the timing was awful - too much distraction from every other corner of the market - the wireless stock group actually hung in there quite well. And, as of today (and thanks to support near the 100-day average line), the S&P 1500 Wireless Index is back above 114 and seems intent on fully renewing its uptrend.
While the group's momentum is attractive, I still can't advocate buying the group as a whole (via an ETF of fund). Why not? After all, clearly the solid companies are doing well enough to lift the less-than-great ones right now. Indeed, with an average P/E of 13.50, last quarter's revenue growth of 22% (yoy), and a trailing average P/S of 1.25, it's not like the group isn't decidedly healthy. (Those are great group-wide numbers, considering the strong fundamental snapshots have to absorb the weak ones.)
The problem is, earnings stories are still very, very hit and miss from one company to the next... a situation that's realized all along the size scale for the industry's stocks.
Therefore, I would advocate looking deep into the group to find the best of the best and focus on those. If you look hard enough, you'll find something like USA Mobility (USMO), which boasts a sub-10.0 P/E on a trailing as well as a projected basis. And sure enough, the stock's been going like gangbusters. Plenty of other stocks in the same pile are doing just as well though.
Tip: Don't forget foreign wireless carriers, as they're seeing similar income growth. Take a look at Vodafone (VOD) and SK Telecom (SKM) - you'll see what I mean.
Helping you get more out of the market, James Brumley Editor - Small Cap Network
From the Community
- New Commentary -
3, 2, 1......URRE, USG, and MPEL Taking Flight
The fact that USG Corporation (NYSE:USG) brought such a precise and abrupt halt to its downtrend should have been the red flag, but after yesterday's pop to a higher high, there can be little doubt that the bulls are serious here. Best of all, there's an amazing amount of room left to recover here.
Mixing It Up in the Dogfight: SCSS, THRX, TASR
If you're looking for a turnaround play, then take a look at Select Comfort Corporation (Nasdaq:SCSS). Dennis Askew recommends 'buying it on the dips', and not only did we just see a dip, we're now seeing a serous rebound effort following an excessive selloff since April. Here's the cool part.... the underlying corporate results justify the new strength.
The Obscured Roadmaps for OSTK, CXM, and ULU
Overstock.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:OSTK) is making bullish good on its contrarian setup as well as its technical rebound foundation. The push off a key support level came as no real surprise to James Brumley, though given that the majority of the market was bearish on Overstock (fuel for the fire), some traders are going to be stunned.
Hard Times Call for Smart Decisions: CCRT, ROCK, STKL
If CompuCredit Holdings Corp (NASDAQ:CCRT) hadn't been trading in such a precise trading range, it may not even be worth mentioning. As of this week though, it appears as if this small cap has pushed off a rising support line for the sixth time since early 2009. There's an equivalent resistance line currently around $7.00 (and rising). So, this may be the ideal time to step in.
All Big Trends Start With a Small Step - WAMUQ, SYKE, & WTSLA
It's been a long process, but Washington Mutual, Inc. (PINK:WAMUQ) spent the last two and a half months not only resisting the broad market's bearish tide, but actually inching higher beyond what had been key ceilings. Now that it's over the hump, the bulls should be able to put the petal to the metal.
- New Trades -
Cardium Therapeutics Inc. (AMEX: CXM) close to FDA 510(k) approval - Biagio R. Rao recently went long on Cardium, and is already off to a great start. (We've also seen a bit of a debate started on this trade's info page.)
Buy Long Veeco Instruments Inc. (Nasdaq:VECO) - Scott Brown perfectly timed his entry on this LED chemical manufacturer.
Sun Setting on Suntrust Bank (NYSE:STI) Again - Scott Brown already made good money by shorting STI a few days ago, but a strong pop earlier this week has set up another bearish opportunity here.
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