News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Right Now, Down is Better Than Up
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

Well, looks like our edition on Apple yesterday for the most part was right on point. We didn't like the stock before earnings and now investors don't like it after. You can find the details about the tech giant's earnings report just about everywhere you look, so we're not going to waste a bunch of time digging into their numbers. The bottom line is the darling of the U.S. Stock Market missed for the first time in years. The stock tumbled roughly 30 points in afterhours and is down over 20 as I type, however, while most investors have been led to believe AAPL's numbers are a sign of the times, I think the reality of their misstep is likely due in large part to a new CEO and the simple fact that not everyone in the world is going to buy a new Iphone or iPad every quarter. That's the layman explanation anyway. As a matter of fact, I'd be willing to speculate even in a good economy, Apple had this coming. Steve Jobs was a master of managing Wall Street's expectations, so we don't find it too surprising new CEO Tim Cook stumbled a bit this time around. He used China as the scape goat, but let's face it, even we know China has been faltering of late. Not a big deal in our opinion. Shares of AAPL have been due for a breather, which opens the door for better entry levels into the stock if you believe Apple has better days ahead. However, I'd let the dust settle before you run out and snap up shares for your child's college tuition. Speaking of earnings, AT&T (T) reported strong wireless numbers yesterday before the bell making it very interesting to see what Sprint (S) has to say tomorrow. We added Sprint as a Featured Stock to our list of long-term plays recently, and the stocks has traded off over the last few days in sentiment with VZ and T. Although T had great numbers, it was a lot of buying the rumor and selling the news. I also think VZ and T have been a bit of a crowded trade with S being the red headed step child. We mentioned previously there was no need to rush out and add Sprint to your portfolio, suggesting lower entry levels might be in the cards. Sure enough, Sprint has pulled back in recent days along with the rest of the market. I've included a weekly chart here of Sprint for your review. Although I like the stock for the longer-term, I'm a little concerned about where the stock is right now going into earnings. As you can see here, shares of S are right up against a perfect 3/8 retracement from the May 2011 high to the January low of this year. Additionally, S is also right up against its 200 day moving average. Seems a bit obvious the stock would be due for a nice healthy pullback, however, should Sprint report solid numbers and the stock gaps, it could get real interesting. Sometimes, when things look way too obvious in the market, you'll get a surprise. Let's hope shares of Sprint catch traders by surprise. I for one would have no interest in shorting Sprint at these levels, that would be considered highly reckless and an amateur short at current levels. Next week, we've got CRAY, CALL and YELP on deck, which should be real interesting since those are three ideas we love for the long haul. I have to admit, I was a little off in my thinking yesterday that if Apple missed, it would send a short-term negative shockwave throughout the markets, but then again, maybe there was no shockwave because nobody seems to care? However, we were definitely right on all other points. Apple is not an indication of where this market is going in the mid-term and it appears Wall Street has got that right. The major indexes moved a hair higher earlier today on a hope and a prayer that Bernanke is going to patch the boat, but has since traded off and is currently attempting to test last week's low. We mentioned the wedge forming on the NASDAQ Composite, which has been broken to the downside today, just as we suspected. This may sound crazy, but in order for this market to get healthy, I really think we need a sharp move lower before we go higher. That would likely wash out the weak hands and set the stage for better weeks ahead. If you're concerned about Spain, let's just remember that back in '08 and early '09 when everyone here at home was concerned about their savings being at risk with the major banks, the Fed stepped in and increased the FDIC's insurance, thus calming those fears. Additionally, you should also remember at the time, Europe was wallowing in their insulation, stocks were trading much better over there, the Euro appeared much stronger against the U.S. Dollar and there wasn't even remotely the concerns there that we had here. I think what's going on in Europe is just follow through from what happened here, so we could be approaching the tail end (at least for a few years anyway) of what has plagued the global concerns in recent years. If that's the case, you're better off being a buyer rather than a seller in the weeks and months ahead because you don't want to be exiting stocks when the major indexes finally hit bottom.