News Details – Smallcapnetwork
Effect of Sandy on the Markets. A Ripe Apple (AAPL) Gone Bad.
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February 2, 2024

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PDT

So far this morning, everything has played out exactly as our commentary suggested yesterday. The indexes oddly gapped up for no apparent reason on the open and have continued to sell off as I type. We mentioned yesterday the S&P 500 appears headed for 1395, which would represent the complete 3/8 retracement from its rally that started back in June. After being closed for the last couple of days, the markets have had an opportunity to digest both the positive and negative economic impact of Hurricane Sandy. Yes, that sounds contradicting, however, depending on the sector, there's obviously going to be fallout and bright spots in terms of an improved fourth quarter. The markets seem to be calling it a wash as a whole right now, which is exactly what we predicted. Of course the media is loving the opportunity to embellish this traumatic event so many families who have unfortunately been victimized from, but the stock market is all about business and financial outlook. Right now, there's an awful lot of trading speculation surrounding many of the names which stand to either benefit or be negatively affected by Sandy. What we find extremely interesting right now is the names you would think should be selling off are actually holding up pretty well. Take the airlines' sector, for example. I've included a chart of the ^XAL, which is the bellwether index for everything airlines. It's done pretty much nothing today. Then again, although airline stocks tend to get a lot of media attention in times like this, it's pretty much a dead trade, a dead investment and bottom line, dead money. Why don't they just nationalize the airlines industry like the rest of public transportation? All they do is suck money out of the private sector and lose it. Guess that was a bit of a rant. Moving on. Both Lowe's (LOW) and Home Depot (HD) gapped up nicely on the open, but have wiped out short-term traders looking to take advantage of those companies which stand to benefit from an increase in sales for important necessities, damage control and building supplies. Again, exactly what we suggested yesterday. Overnight open order flow into many of these names is what gave market makers the opportunity this morning to price the above mentioned stocks perfectly for a crowded trade to the long side, just so they could get short and take the wind out of the sails of those short-term traders who thought they had come up with a unique idea. Sorry guys, they weren't the only ones with that idea. The bottom line is if you didn't own those ideas before Sandy, you did not benefit from their higher stock prices today, since the absolute high today for both of them was on the open, at least so far. When something becomes too obvious, the markets are going to be the first to let you know. Hope you read between the lines of yesterday's edition and picked up some short-term put options in those names. If you did, congrats, but be sure to close them out and take your profits in short order, no pun intended, because I think there's an opportunity to get long for longer-term investors with a wider time horizon once these stocks settle a bit. We're starting to see some underlying support developing in the market, which is a nice change from the free fall type environment stocks have become subject to since the September highs. This would suggest we're either at, or getting very close to, a tradable bottom across all of the major indexes. Stocks are right around levels to benefit from at least a nice short-term relief rally. A market meltdown at this point would be a huge surprise without market makers unloading much of the stock they've taken in recently at higher prices. Remember, for every seller, there's a buyer and there's likely a lot of funds out there right now which didn't participate much over the last couple of years, who are going to need to start exposing themselves in this market because they have high net worth investors they're going to need to answer to. Tech continues to slide as the weakest of the broad based sectors, but third quarter earnings are historically among the weakest quarters for stocks in general, and tech is most definitely no exception. Apple's (AAPL) news today isn't helping tech since shares are currently under pressure, falling below $600 for the second time in as many trading days. If an earnings miss wasn't enough for Apple last week, the Company announced on Monday afternoon that mobile software developer Scott Forstall and retail chief John Browett are leaving the company next year. Quite honestly, just as I published a few months ago, Apple's better days just may be behind it. I know there's a lot of real Apple lovers out there, and we've loved Apple ever since the Company launched its first IPod when we suggested the stock to our readers at a mere $15 per share. That was roughly 10 or so years ago, and the stock has had one of the most unbelievable runs I've seen ever since I've followed the markets. Things change though, and Apple no longer has Steve jobs, key leaders are jumping ship and the Company is starting to become subject to fierce competition. I've got a stock I think is going to benefit tremendously to Apple's demise in the months and maybe even years ahead. You might be extremely surprised as to which Company I'm referring to, but stay tuned, we'll reveal this idea very soon. For now, let's continue to be opportunistic and look for not so obvious ideas that market makers can't play games with. Hope you're having a great week, and if you're in the Northeast, we truly hope things get better for you. 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