It's no secret the Fed is expected to provide some sort of guidance regarding monetary policy in a few hours. Depending on when I finish today's edition and when it finally gets to you, the markets could be in some sort of frenzy by then. We could have waited until the Fed opened his mouth to decide what to talk about and publish, however, there is a method to our madness. This is our way of letting you know whatever the Fed does, we really don't think it's going to matter, especially for the grand scheme of the markets.
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What I mean is... although we may get a nice knee jerk reaction to the Fed's policy decisions in a few hours, it's our stance that whatever he decides to do is going to have very little impact on where the markets go and what earnings are going to look like for the back half of the year. Yes, the perception on the surface might be, "Oh no! He's not going to continue purchasing long-term bonds, what are we going to do now?!" Or, the headlines may read, "Things Just Aren't Bad Enough for the Fed to Act, Is That a Good Thing?"
Whatever it is, it is what it is. Say that ten times real fast. In our opinion, all of this monetary policy stuff should simply be called "pain easing" instead of "quantitative easing". At the end of the day, we're going to have to face the music of our national debt issue. That's the bottom line. If this economy is going to continue in the right direction, new families are going to have to start buying homes, consumers are going to have to continue to spend and corporate America is going to have to continue to produce numbers that not only support their current valuations, but lend themselves to potentially higher valuations down the road. That's what's going to drive these markets. Nothing more, nothing less.
If I said to you, hey, don't worry about your current financial situation, if you continue to have trouble, I'll just go ahead and print you some more money. You'd be ecstatic, right? That's not an insult. It's just human nature. Most people would prefer to put something that hurts off into the future, rather than deal with it today. I just never really thought our Government would employ such a weak strategy. Then again, I'm no Pulitzer Prize winning economist either, so take what I say with a grain of salt.
With all this being said, this is what we do know. We know how to pick stocks. We know how to read charts and financial statements. The markets can and will always trade based on speculation. And, no matter what the Fed does, there are going to be stocks that go up and stocks that go down.
If you want to speculate on what this market is going to do, here's my best guess for post Fed announcement market activity today. When it's all said and done, this market is going higher. QE3 or not, that's what we believe. If and when this market decides to implode, we don't think it's going to happen anytime soon. The charts are telling us this market will be higher a few months from now than where it is now. Can we justify it fundamentally? Yes. We've brought you plenty of fundamental data regarding corporate earnings, where they've been, where they're at now and potentially where they may be headed, and it's not as bad as most people think.
Remember, the markets absolutely love to go higher when the average retail investor isn't participating. When everyone and their mother wants to own a stock is when there's likely trouble around the corner. Until then, buy low, sell high and let's continue to profit from the single best place on earth to put your money to work, the equity markets because no matter what the media tries to lead us to believe, there's a lot of money to be made in this current market environment, and that's not changing anytime soon.
By the way, doesn't this last picture of Bernanke we've included here look like he's praying?